Stokastic’s MMA DFS Sims provide a comprehensive, data-driven approach to building optimal lineups. Whether you’re simulating contests, adjusting projections or minimizing duplication, these tools help streamline the MMA DFS lineup-building process and maximize ROI. Here we will walk through the MMA DFS Sims tools and explain just how to make money with the best DFS products in the industry.
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How to Make Money With MMA DFS Sims: Strategy Tips & Advice
The process begins with the Contest Generator, where you build a pool of lineups that emulate the field for your contest. This tool supports two packages: The Core Package (up to 1,000 lineups) and the Max Package (up to 10,000 lineups). Select the pool size that matches the contest you’re entering. For smaller single-entry contests, select a smaller pool size, while for large-field GPPs offering $100,000 to first, you will need the largest pool size possible (which you get with Max).
Be sure to select the correct site (DraftKings, FanDuel etc.) and slate for your contest. If you want, you can also adjust the tool to stack fights, although this is generally unnecessary for most MMA slates. Once your settings are in place, click Generate Lineups to build your lineup pool.
Understanding MMA DFS Ownership and Pool Exposure
The Contest Generator provides MMA DFS ownership projections and pool exposure for each fighter. Ownership represents the projected percentage of lineups in the field that will include a fighter, while pool exposure reflects how frequently that fighter appears in your lineup pool.
If you believe a fighter’s projected ownership is inaccurate, you can adjust it using the up or down arrows next to their name. For example, if you think a fighter will be more popular than projected, increase their ownership. However, do not use this feature to control your personal exposure to a fighter — that comes later.
Simulating the Contest
Once your lineup pool is generated, the next step is to simulate the contest. Start by setting the percentage to first based on your contest’s payout structure. For example, if there is a $1 million prize pool and $250,000 goes to first, select 25%. This setting affects how lineups are evaluated in the Sims, so make sure it accurately reflects your contest.
At this stage, you can adjust MMA DFS projections manually or upload your own using a CSV file with player names, projections and ownership. If you’re satisfied with the default settings or your custom changes, click Run Contest Simulation.
How the MMA DFS Sims Work
The tool simulates the slate 40,000 times, modeling each fight on a play-by-play basis, including strikes, takedowns, knockouts and submissions. Lineups are evaluated based on their performance in these simulations, and each lineup is assigned a simulated return on investment (ROI).
The simulated ROI reflects the average payout a lineup achieves across all simulations, accounting for factors like ownership and contest payout structures. Lineups with high ceilings and lower expected duplication rates (dupes) tend to perform better in top-heavy contests.
Interpreting the Results
After the simulation, the lineups are ranked by simulated ROI. For each lineup, you’ll see key metrics such as:
- Projected Fantasy Points: Total projected score for the lineup.
- Ownership Sum: Combined ownership of all fighters in the lineup.
- Win Percentage: Likelihood the lineup wins the contest in simulations.
- Top 10 Percentage: Frequency the lineup finishes in the top 10.
- Cash Percentage: Probability the lineup cashes.
- Dupes: Number of expected duplicate entries for the lineup.
Duplication is a critical factor in MMA DFS. A lineup duplicated 15 times will have lower profitability compared to a unique lineup with similar upside. Use this data to identify lineups that are both high-performing and less likely to be duplicated.
Customizing Your Lineups
To finalize your selections, you can favorite your top lineups by simulated ROI. For example, if you’re playing 150 lineups, select and favorite the top 150 lineups. You can further customize your lineups by setting exposure caps for individual fighters. If you want no more than 50% exposure to a fighter, set that cap and the tool will adjust your favorites accordingly.
Additionally, the Uniques feature helps diversify your lineups. By setting a requirement for two or three unique fighters per lineup, you ensure no two lineups are overly similar.
Maximizing the MMA DFS Sims’ Value
The Stokastic MMA DFS Sims are designed to save you time and provide a data-driven approach to lineup construction. By leveraging advanced simulations and intuitive tools, you can focus on strategy and leave the heavy lifting to the Sims.
If you have questions, Stokastic’s Discord is an excellent resource for additional support. With these tools at your disposal, you’re equipped to build optimized lineups and gain an edge in MMA DFS contests.
