Underdog Fantasy’s $15 MILLION Best Ball tournament is 78.4% filled, which means there are already 527,392 entries LOCKED IN. None of those half million-plus entries can take advantage of all the news that’s coming out. But you can. Here’s how you can apply NFL DFS projections and strategy to your Best Ball strategy.
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How to Apply NFL DFS Strategy to Best Ball Strategy
Drafting later and waiting for news offers two significant advantages, both rooted in the core strategy of NFL DFS: Ownership and projections. Lower ownership combined with higher projections leads to greater expected value (EV) for your Best Ball lineup.
First, you can target lower-owned players. For example, two years ago, Drew Lock and Geno Smith were largely ignored in drafts because their starting roles were uncertain. As August progressed and the situation became clearer, savvy drafters could capitalize on their low ownership.
Second, NFL projections become more accurate as the season approaches. Take Quentin Johnston, for instance. If he’s initially projected as the Chargers WR3, his season-long projection will be much higher compared to if he ends up as the WR5 behind D.J. Chark and Brenden Rice. As new information emerges, you can adjust your projections accordingly, allowing you to draft more effectively.
With that in mind, here are some players to target now that we have more news.
Draft Sam Darnold & Gardner Minshew
Among the half million entries already drafted, almost none will include these quarterback Best Ball risers. Aidan O’Connell was consistently drafted ahead of Gardner Minshew throughout the summer, while Sam Darnold was picked after J.J. McCarthy. Typically, top quarterbacks are owned in 8.3% of drafts. But with 78.4% of lineups already drafted, these QBs will only be drafted in about 22% of the remaining lineups — meaning they’ll appear in just around 2% of the total field.
If you manage to advance lineups with one of these QBs still starting by playoff time, you’ll gain a massive edge over your competition.
Draft Wide Receiver Best Ball Risers
Here are five players who have gone undrafted so far this draft season but now have much clearer roles. The same principle applies: It’s advantageous to target low-owned players in this range because their projections can offer a significant edge.
- Brenden Rice: Potential WR3 for the Chargers who remained undrafted until just five days ago.
- Josh Reynolds and Tim Patrick: Both are competing for starting roles in the Broncos offense, yet they’ve been undrafted all summer.
- Jordan Whittington: Pushing for the Rams WR3 spot, especially with Puka Nacua dealing with an injury.
Other Options & Fliers
- Tre Tucker (Raiders): Lead on the WR3 role in Oakland, has had a great camp.
- Kalif Raymond (Lions): Locked down WR3 role in Detroit.
- Ray-Ray McCloud: Guaranteed a slot in Atlanta. Rondale Moore out for the year.
- Kendrick Bourne: The Patriots depth chart is a mess, but he’s on top.
Here are the running backs you want to target that haven’t been getting drafted at all this offseason:
- Jordan Mason: Undrafted until a week ago. May beat out Eli Mitchell for the RB2 role in San Francisco.
- A.J. Dillon: Undrafted until about three weeks ago. Marshawn Lloyd is injured, Dillon has slimmed down while having a great camp.
- Justice Hill: Undrafted until a month ago and is the RB2 in Baltimore with Keaton Mitchell out.
Each of these guys is going to have FAR LESS ownership than other running backs taken in this range, with just as much upside.
Tight End Targets
- Theo Johnson: Rookie, up to second on the Giants depth chart.
- Zach Ertz: First on the Commanders depth chart.
- Gerald Everett: Splitting time with Cole Kmet.
- Colby Parkinson: TE1 for the Rams until Tyler Higbee gets back.
All of these guys haven’t been getting drafted at high rates this Best Ball season, but their ADP is rising.
Finally, and on the flip side, it’s wise to start fading players who have had disappointing camps and are buried on the depth chart. Marvin Mims is a prime example. Despite showing flashes of potential last year and having an open wide receiver room, he failed to secure a starting role. Yet, he’s still being drafted in 100% of drafts, even though he’s buried on the Broncos depth chart.
Keep in mind that this Best Ball strategy only applies to contests that have been running throughout the spring and summer.
