It’s time to continue our PGA DFS picks series by providing our Genesis Invitational DFS picks and core plays.
After a wild week in the desert that saw Thomas Detry run away from the field for his first PGA Tour victory, we head back to California for this week’s Genesis Invitational. Due to the devastation caused by the wild fires, this year’s tournament has been moved away from storied Riviera Country Club. Instead, they will play this year’s event at the Torrey Pines South Course, which just hosted the Farmers Insurance Open just three weeks ago.
Genesis Invitational DFS Picks
Course & Tournament Preview
The South Course at Torrey Pines is the more difficult of the two courses on property. Measuring in over 7,700 yards, it’s one of the longest courses they’ll play on all year. When you add in the course location at sea level, and the typically softer conditions on the fairways limiting rollout, it plays even longer. Bombers will have an undeniable advantage on this layout, but the thick rough also requires accuracy as well. The golfers who hit it both long and straight will have a distinct advantage on this layout, even more so than they typically do. For my core plays, I’ll be looking for exceptional ball strikers, and players who have success in their careers on poa annua greens. A successful track record at Torrey Pines is an added bonus that I’ll be taking into account as well.
Using the Stokastic PGA Sims Tool, I’ve highlighted the top plays for this week below. Our hole-by-hole simulations evaluate each golfer’s potential outcome, combined with PGA DFS projections. By running simulations of lineups tens of thousands of times, we can pinpoint the top plays.
Naturally, the players who appear most frequently in the highest-ROI lineups are the ones I focus on for my portfolio. The Sims Tool is crucial to my weekly DFS strategy, and I highly recommend it for anyone looking to advance their DFS game.
Please note, I intentionally left out Scottie Scheffler from the list of core plays below. He is the best play on the slate, and will be every single time he tees it up this year. You don’t need me to tell you that. How you handle him is a strategic decision that only you can make based on your bankroll, the contests you’re playing, and how you want to attack the unique game theory inflection point that only Scottie can provide.
Alright, let’s get to the plays
2024 Genesis Invitational DFS Picks & Core Plays
Rory McIlroy – $10,900
Rory came out the gates blistering hot to start his 2025 campaign, with a win in his first start of the season at Pebble Beach. That week, Rory led the field in strokes gained off the tee, clearing the nearest contender by nearly two full strokes. As one of the game’s elite drivers of the ball, Rory sets up perfectly to attack the lengthly layout of Torrey Pines South.
In three career starts in the Farmers Insurance Open, which is played at Torrey Pines annually, he has finishes of 3rd, 5th and 16th. He also came in 7th when the U.S. Open was hosted at Torrey Pines South in 2021. He’s familiar with the course, is driving it incredibly well, and is coming off a win in his last start. I’m all in on Rory this week.
Jason Day – $8,700
Day has been off to a really nice start in 2025. Through 4 events, he has 2 finishes inside the top 13 and has gained strokes tee-to-green in all four starts. One of those finishes came just a couple weeks ago in the stacked field at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. His game appears to be in great shape heading into Torrey Pines, a course he has had a ton of experience and success with over the years.
In 14 career starts at the Farmers Insurance Open, he has 7 finishes inside the top 10 including two wins. He absolutely loves competing at Torrey Pines. I believe he is a strong option in the upper $8k range on Draftkings this week.
Sepp Straka – $8,000
Straka has been a beast to start 2025. In five starts this year he has four finishes inside the top 15 including a win at American Express in mid January. Over the last 24 tracked rounds, Straka ranks 2nd in this stacked field in strokes gained on approach.
The only potential knock on Straka is his lack of elite distance, as he averages just under 300 yards off the tee. Where he lacks in distance he makes up in accuracy, as he’s hitting north of 70% of his fairways, an elite number. Historically Straka’s preffered putting surface is poa annua, which plays perfectly here at Torrey Pines. He may not have the fire power to win this event, but I firmly believe he is in play for another top 15 finish this week which should pay off his $8,000 salary on DraftKings.
Want to elevate your lineup analysis with the Post-Contest Simulator? Check out Steve Buzzard’s tutorial to discover how to use simulations to help refine your PGA DFS picks!
GPP Flier
Sam Stevens – $7,600
After a somewhat rocky start to the 2025 season, Stevens has really came on over the last few weeks. He followed up his 2nd place finish at Farmers (hosted at Torrey Pines) with a nice 17th place finish at Pebble Beach. Over the last 24 rounds he ranks 2nd in this field in strokes gained off the tee, and top 40 in both strokes gained on approach and around the green. In addition to his runner up finish at Torrey Pines a few weeks ago, he also had a 13th place finish in 2023. He clearly feels comfortable on this golf course.
With ownership projections hovering in the single digits, I believe he is a strong option in the mid $7k range on DraftKings to help differentiate your lineups in large field GPP’s this week.
These are the main players who will be featured in my Genesis Invitational DFS lineups. I’ll be relying on these golfers while building my lineups using the PGA Sims Tool. Additionally, don’t forget to take advantage of the odds boosts offered by sportsbooks.
