Yes, we missed Aaron Rai last week as our first-round leader but we smashed his outright in the OddsShopper discord! To celebrate, enjoy the first week off my VIP page with code FREE, as that makes five outright winners this year alone. Now, let’s turn our attention to his week. We hit the opening leg of the FedEx Playoffs, and this is where things get real. This is the top 70 players in the world — excluding LIV — convening at a familiar setting at TPC Southwind in Memphis. Unlike major events, this course doesn’t rotate.
Scottie Scheffler remains atop the leader and betting boards, followed by Xander Schauffele and Rory McIlroy. Among this trio, McIlroy offers the only value simply because he has the longest odds. The better angle is using the impact of these three players to push mid-range golfers to a better overall number.
If you’ve noticed a theme over the past few weeks centered around accuracy, you are spot on. TPC Southwind demands accurate second shots with mid-range irons. The biggest defense might simply be firm and fast Bermuda greens. These may run like concrete at times and anyone unfamiliar with how to approach or putt on them will be cooked.
Course history is crucial here since the venue hasn’t changed since its inception. We know exactly what this course offers and how to beat it, although it’s weighted by the field each year. Due to the exclusion of LIV players and those who failed to qualify, only two former winners are in the current field.
FedEx St. Jude Championship First Round Leader Picks
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The Keys To The Kingdom
Short and sweet. The recurring theme holds true this week in Memphis as the 70-man field (with no cut) looks to navigate the tighter fairways and avoid water. Reaching the greens is only half the battle; scoring on the fast Bermuda greens will be the real challenge. We just saw a massive meltdown on the greens this past weekend, opening up that outright for Rai. Let’s not understate the importance of putting this week. It’s actually one of the most important angles in identifying an outright winner and first-round leader. It’s not the only factor, but it’s arguably the most important this week.
Putting has been part of the cake we bake each week but rarely the star ingredient. It’s normally accompanied by how difficult it might be to reach the greens. The other area is not just approach shots, but specific to the 150 to 175 range. With distance devalued once again, setting up quality second shots will be massive. The two par 5’s on the course are reachable in two but rarely impact the event significantly. Position off the tee is essential, as it determines the most important shot on most holes — the approach.
We still place significant weight on gaining strokes tee to green. Being able to navigate these holes — shorter overall but not short short at just over 7,200 yards — over the past few events should help carry over to this week. As mentioned, only two returning champions — Justin Thomas and Will Zalatoris — are in the field, and they hold the top two performances in course history. That’s not an automatic connection to a first-round leader but highlights the importance of hitting certain shots each year.
FedEx St. Jude Championship First-Round Leader Picks
FedEx St. Jude Championship First Round Leader Picks: Ludvig Aberg (+2800 at Bet365)
We find a fantastic number for a young man who has played outstanding golf and performs as well as anyone when he’s on. The key question for Aberg is how well that flat stick will work. If he’s dialed in, it’s over for the rest of the field. Yes, he’s been that good. Outside of Scheffler, who might be an X-Man, Aberg has destroyed courses that require both length and a tactician approach. A fourth at the Genesis, fifth at the Memorial and second-place finish at the Masters show how versatile he’s been. There’s also zero fear in this man’s heart as he takes on the world’s best in this field.
Looking at where he pops this week at St. Jude, Aberg once again meets the highest criteria. We mentioned how important overall navigation of these courses is, highlighted by strokes gained tee to green. Add in performances on Bermudagrass and Aberg is among the best in the field in strokes gained tee to green and putting on Bermuda. There might be four golfers better this week in gaining shots off the approach. While he can absolutely play the distance game, Aberg has managed to mix accuracy and distance to help on the 400- to 500-yard par 4’s. He’s top 10 in strokes gained on approach, putting on Bermuda and scrambling. The latter is crucial since not every shot will be perfect, and his ability to save par from the thicker rough around the greens provides a significant advantage.
FedEx St. Jude Championship First Round Leader Picks: Brian Harman (+5000 at FanDuel)
Harman has played strong golf this year, and he’s another mid-range contender for the first-round lead. He’s played 10 consecutive tournaments without missing the cut, with his last occurring at the Masters. Harman has been consistent but has struggled to put together four days of winning golf. It’s clear by looking at the overall numbers from Harman that he does his best work when his approach shots land, even if he’s struggling on the greens. While his putting is often the reason he can’t complete a four-day trek to win an event, it’s not enough to knock us off this first-round leader spot at 50-1.
Harman is in similar company with Aberg atop this field, combining both strokes gained tee to green and putting on Bermuda greens. That might help, as he’s struggled this year to gain strokes on other putting surfaces. In fact, Harman is one of the top 10 golfers in the current field for putting on Bermuda, which adds an advantage given that putting has been a challenge for him elsewhere. We should see a similar approach to this course as we saw with Rai last week — the major difference being how fast these greens will be. Harman should have plenty of early opportunities to score and potentially match the first-round lead. He’s absolutely worth a shot at +5000.
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