I am back again with the best DraftKings NBA DFS picks per Stokastic’s NBA DFS Sims, NBA DFS projections and NBA DFS ownership projections. Given the loaded slate ahead, we have some great plays to dig into. You can also follow me @JoshEngleman for the top plays across DraftKings and FanDuel, plus updates throughout the day. I’ll be adding more details to my Twitter thread as news drops, so feel free to reach out with any questions or for additional player ranks!
These DraftKings NBA DFS picks are based on the latest available information. For real-time updates, be sure to check our NBA DFS Starting Lineups Page!
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DraftKings NBA DFS Picks Today, March 5
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5 – Nikola Jokic
Position: C | Salary: $12,200
Projections: 28.8 Points, 12.0 Rebounds, 9.8 Assists, 2.4 Stocks
We’ll start with a familiar face. I don’t think anyone will be surprised to see Jokic on this list, and honestly, I’m happy to pay up for him tonight. The key here is that he’s questionable, but if he does play, the matchup is excellent. With Jonas Valanciunas on the opposite side, I’m expecting a competitive game, and Jokic can easily hit 70 fantasy points. We need 70 from him, and he has a 43% chance of hitting that mark and a 25% chance of being optimal. If Jokic is active, he’s a must-play tonight.
4 – Chet Holmgren
Position: PF/C | Salary: $7,300
Projections: 18.3 Points, 8.8 Rebounds, 2.7 Assists, 4.0 Stocks
Holmgren gets a juicy matchup against Memphis. With Jaren Jackson Jr. out, the Grizzlies defense takes a hit, and they’re also playing at the fastest pace in the league. Holmgren projects for 41.5 fantasy points, but we’re aiming for 47. He hits that 47-point target 40% of the time and has a 37% chance of being optimal. He’s been playing well, and the matchup is excellent, so I’m all in on Holmgren tonight.
3 – Khris Middleton
Position: SF/PF | Salary: $5,500
Projections: 17.5 Points, 4.7 Rebounds, 4.9 Assists, 1.3 Stocks
With Jordan Poole out for the Wizards and several other potential absences, Middleton is in a great spot tonight. He has a 39% chance of hitting his 38-fantasy point goal and a 41% chance of being optimal. This game against Utah, who is missing key pieces, should provide plenty of opportunity for Middleton. The matchup is favorable and his price is right, making him a solid value play tonight.
2 – Brice Sensabaugh
Position: SF/PF | Salary: $4,300
Projections: 16.7 Points, 4.6 Rebounds, 2.0 Assists, 1.0 Stocks
With Utah short-handed, Sensabaugh should see plenty of opportunities. He’s projected for 32 fantasy points, and he hits that mark 39% of the time and has a 40% chance of being optimal. His flexibility across multiple positions makes him an easy fit into lineups, and with so many Jazz absences, Sensabaugh could be in for a big night. His price makes him one of the best value plays of the day.
1 – Alexandre Sarr
Position: C | Salary: $5,100
Projections: 14.8 Points, 7.4 Rebounds, 2.4 Assists, 2.3 Stocks
At just $5,100, Sarr is a fantastic value in this matchup, projecting for 32 fantasy points. But we’re aiming for 36, and he hits that 44% of the time with a 44% chance of being optimal. Sarr is over a fantasy point per minute in this spot, and with his extended minutes and a great matchup against weaker competition, he should have a huge game. This is a great opportunity to lock in a high-upside play at an excellent price.
