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DraftKings NBA DFS Picks Today, March 14
5 – Jarrett Allen
Position: C | Salary: $6,400
Projections: 14.3 Points, 11.1 Rebounds, 2.3 Assists, 2.3 Stocks
This is a big spot for Cleveland because Donovan Mitchell is out, which means more opportunity for the rest of the roster. I have Allen projected for 30 minutes and 36 fantasy points with a ceiling of 42. That makes him 34% optimal. This is a huge pace-up game against the Memphis Grizzlies, and we still don’t know if Jaren Jackson Jr. will be available. If he’s out, that’s a major defensive absence, which helps Cleveland’s offense even more. Allen is in a fantastic spot, and I’m happy to get plenty of exposure to him tonight.
4 – Kawhi Leonard
Position: SF/PF | Salary: $8,700
Projections: 27.8 Points, 6.2 Rebounds, 3.3 Assists, 2.4 Stocks
Leonard’s minutes have been ticking up recently, and there’s no back-to-back, so we should expect a full workload. While he hasn’t quite looked like peak Leonard, this is still an elite player in a prime matchup. Kawhi is projecting for 36 minutes in a pace-up spot against the Atlanta Hawks, one of the worst defensive teams in the league. You’ll need north of 50 fantasy points for a true ceiling game, but he gets there 42% of the time in simulations.
The matchup is excellent, the pace is excellent and the multi-position eligibility is very helpful. Leonard won’t stay in the top 5 all day, but he should remain in the top 10.
3 – Jeff Dowtin
Position: PG | Salary: $3,500
Projections: 10.0 Points, 3.1 Rebounds, 4.7 Assists, 1.3 Stocks
There’s some uncertainty in the 76ers backcourt, but with no Tyrese Maxey and no Paul George, the minutes are there for the taking. Add in Lonnie Walker being out with a concussion and Justin Edwards being questionable, and Philadelphia is running out of bodies.
I have Dowtin playing 28 minutes at point guard-only eligibility for just $3,500. He’s projected for 23.5 fantasy points, and we’re looking for around 28 from him, giving him a 42% chance of getting there.
Dowtin isn’t a great per-minute producer, hovering around 0.8 fantasy points per minute, but the playing time is what matters here. The 76ers are in full tank mode, so I expect him to keep getting minutes, and if any of the questionable tags turn into outs, his value only goes up. He’s an excellent salary saver tonight.
2 – Darius Garland
Position: PG | Salary: $7,700
Projections: 24.2 Points, 2.8 Rebounds, 7.9 Assists, 1.5 Stocks
With Mitchell sidelined, Garland takes on a much bigger offensive role. He’s already been one of the most efficient offensive players in the league, and this is a prime spot for him. He has a 49% chance of hitting his target of 49 fantasy points, which gives him a 50/50 shot at being in the optimal lineup. The pace-up game against Memphis is great, and the price tag is even better. While it would be nice if he had multi-position eligibility, I’m not too worried about it. With no Mitchell, this is Garland’s team on offense, making him one of the top priorities on the slate.
1 – Jared Butler
Position: PG/SG | Salary: $4,600
Projections: 15.4 Points, 3.0 Rebounds, 6.7 Assists, 1.5 Stocks
Butler started last game and played north of 30 minutes, and I don’t see any reason why that changes tonight. With no Maxey and Walker, he’s locked into a significant role. The goal is 33 fantasy, and he has at least a 50% chance of being in the optimal lineup.
Butler is a strong per-minute producer, a little over 1.0 fantasy points per minute. The matchup against the Pacers is excellent, as Indiana isn’t a team you fear defensively. If for some reason Butler doesn’t start, then we pivot more to Dowtin, but assuming he stays in the starting lineup, Butler is the best value play on the slate.
