What’s going on, everybody? Josh Engleman here, back again with my top 5 DraftKings NBA DFS picks according to Stokastic’s NBA DFS Sims, NBA DFS projections and NBA DFS ownership projections. Make sure you’re following me @JoshEngleman. That’s where you’ll find my top ten plays for DraftKings and FanDuel, along with any updates later tonight — either just before or right after the Deeper Dive.
These DraftKings NBA DFS picks are based on the latest available information. For real-time updates, be sure to check our NBA DFS Starting Lineups Page!
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DraftKings NBA DFS Picks Today, March 4
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5 – Lonzo Ball
Position: PG/SG | Salary: $4,700
Projections: 12.1 Points, 4.3 Rebounds, 3.9 Assists, 2.2 Stocks
Now, there’s a key issue here — Ball is questionable. We don’t yet know if he’s playing, but if he does suit up, he immediately will become one of the best options on the slate.
Ball is taking on the Cleveland Cavaliers, which isn’t the most ideal matchup on paper, but this game has a huge total and a fast pace. His minutes have been on the rise lately, and at just $4,700, he’s projected for around 28.5 fantasy points, and you’re looking for about 34 to really get value from him.
With a 42% optimal percentage and a 37% chance of hitting that goal score, he’s in a great spot — provided he plays. The Chicago Bulls could look even crazier by lock, as Kevin Huerter and Josh Giddey are also questionable. If Ball is active, he’s likely a top priority.
4 – Damian Lillard
Position: PG | Salary: $9,000
Projections: 27.3 Points, 4.9 Rebounds, 8.1 Assists, 1.5 Stocks
Next up, Lillard looks fantastic at just $9,000 in an elite matchup against Atlanta. The Hawks are one of the fastest-paced teams in the league, making this a huge pace-up spot for Lillard and the Bucks. He’s point guard only, but the price tag is too good to ignore. We’re talking just under 50 fantasy points. You’re looking for about 55 to really hit his ceiling, and he has a 32% optimal percentage with a 42% chance of reaching that target.
Atlanta is on a back-to-back and lacks defensive talent, making this an excellent game environment. Lillard is in a smash spot, but shockingly, he’s not even the best Buck today.
3 – Onyeka Okongwu
Position: C | Salary: $6,200
Projections: 15.2 Points, 10.3 Rebounds, 2.9 Assists, 2.0 Stocks
Staying in the same game, Okongwu is way underpriced. He’s facing Milwaukee, but his role has been rock solid since taking over the starting job. The crazy part is DraftKings hasn’t adjusted his salary.
At $6,200, Okongwu is center-only, but he’s playing massive minutes. He only needs about 41 fantasy points to pay off this salary, which he does 43% of the time. His 35% optimal percentage makes him one of the best value plays on the slate.
Barring injury or foul trouble, his minutes are secure, and Clint Capela isn’t a major threat to his playing time anymore. If Okongwu were $7,200, he’d rank around 20th today — that tells you just how mispriced he is.
2 – Julius Randle
Position: PF/C | Salary: $6,500
Projections: 20.2 Points, 7.9 Rebounds, 4.4 Assists, 1.1 Stocks
Randle returned after missing weeks and played 34 minutes in his first game back. Now he’s questionable again, but if he plays, he’s a top-tier option. Randle faces a banged-up 76ers team on the second half of a back-to-back, so we have no idea who will even be available for Philadelphia. He’s $6,500 after being priced at $7,500 for most of the year and even hit $8,000 at times. If Randle gets the same minutes as last game, he’s just like Okongwu — $1,000 too cheap.
You need 43 for Randle to really hit, which he does 44% of the time. With a 47% optimal percentage, the only question is whether he plays.
1 – Giannis Antetokounmpo
Position: PF/C | Salary: $11,000
Projections: 34.1 Points, 12.2 Rebounds, 5.7 Assists, 2.0 Stocks
Antetokounmpo faces the Hawks in a dream game environment — fast pace, high total and a Milwaukee team that should dominate. There’s no Victor Wembanyama tonight, no Nikola Jokic and no Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. That leaves Giannis as the clear best choice.
He’s projected for a massive 61 fantasy points, and the goal is 65, which he hits 50% of the time. With a 50% optimal percentage, Giannis is the best raw point play on the board and should be in a ton of lineups tonight. Value will open up throughout the day, making it even easier to afford Giannis, and when it comes to ceiling, no one on this slate compares.
