What’s going on, everybody? Josh Engleman here, back again with my DraftKings NBA DFS picks with help from Stokastic’s NBA DFS Sims, NBA DFS projections and NBA DFS ownership projections. You’re going to want to pay close attention to the updates later today. This slate is absolutely wild — back-to-backs all over the place and a ridiculous number of questionable tags. We still don’t have a clear picture of who’s playing tonight, but this is my first pass at the top 5 plays.
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DraftKings NBA DFS Picks Today, March 10
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5 – A.J. Lawson
Position: PG/SG | Salary: $3,500
Projections: 12.2 Points, 4.5 Rebounds, 2.0 Assists, 1.3 Stocks
With the Raptors missing a couple of key pieces, I’m expecting Lawson to be in the starting lineup tonight. If that’s the case, he’s simply too cheap for the role he’s likely to play. You’re looking for 28 fantasy points out of him to really hit value, and he gets there 37% of the time. The value is fantastic if he’s starting again. Plus, given that the Raptors aren’t exactly trying to win right now, Lawson could still see plenty of minutes even if the game gets out of hand. And let’s not forget — he’s facing the Wizards, so the matchup doesn’t get much better than this.
4 – Onyeka Okongwu
Position: C | Salary: $6,800
Projections: 17.1 Points, 10.2 Rebounds, 3.5 Assists, 2.2 Stocks
Okongwu remains underpriced, even as his salary climbs to $6,800. He still has more room to go, likely pushing north of $7,000 soon because he’s been locked into 32 minutes per game and producing at a strong rate. He averages 1.25-plus fantasy points per minute, and he’s in a great spot against Philadelphia.
We don’t even know who’s playing center for Philadelphia tonight. It could be Andre Drummond, Adem Bona or even Guerschon Yabusele. Either way, I like the matchup for Okongwu. He’s still an excellent value despite the rising price.
3 – Max Christie
Position: SG | Salary: $5,400
Projections: 16.7 Points, 5.7 Rebounds, 3.6 Assists, 1.9 Stocks
Dallas is in a rough spot. They could have as few as seven or eight active players tonight. Brandon Williams got hurt yesterday, Kai Jones’ status is uncertain, P.J. Washington might return, and both Dwight Powell and Caleb Martin seem limited. It’s a complete mess. Assuming Christie is in, I expect him to play at least 36 minutes, potentially more if Dallas doesn’t have enough bodies.
Christie’s goal is 37 fantasy points, which he can absolutely hit if he’s playing extended minutes. Keep an eye on the Dallas injury report because he won’t be the only Maverick making this list once we get more news.
2 – Naji Marshall
Position: SF/PF | Salary: $6,800
Projections: 19.8 Points, 8.3 Rebounds, 3.9 Assists, 1.7 Stocks
Everything I said about Christie applies here for Marshall as well. If Dallas is this shorthanded, these guys are locked into 36-plus minutes. Marshall could be asked to play small forward, power forward and even some center depending on who else is available. He’s projected for 40 fantasy points, with a target of 44. He’s close to a 50/50 shot at being in the optimal lineup.
The injury situations for Dante Exum, Martin and Powell could shift things slightly, but Marshall is in an excellent spot regardless.
1 – Tristan Vukcevic
Position: C | Salary: $3,700
Projections: 13.0 Points, 6.6 Rebounds, 1.9 Assists, 1.6 Stocks
Now, I’ll be honest — I didn’t expect this one, but the numbers don’t lie. Vukcevic is the top value play of the day. He’s center-only at $3,700 and should get every center minute that Alexandre Sarr doesn’t play, especially with Richaun Holmes already ruled out.
At his salary, Vukcevic is one of the best point-per-dollar plays on the slate. He’s a solid per-minute producer, and his minutes should be locked in barring any surprises. He’s showing up as 45% optimal right now, and you’re only looking for 29 fantasy points out of him to hit the goal. That’s absolutely doable. Could other value plays emerge throughout the day? Of course. Could he drop to fourth or fifth by lock? Maybe. But right now, Vukcevic is my No. 1 play on the slate.
