Sunday Night Football has a 43.5 projected total, with the Pittsburgh Steelers favored by nearly a field goal as they host the 2-2 Dallas Cowboys. This total and close matchup add to the strategy and decision points across the NFL DFS world. In this installment of Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’re breaking down the Cowboys-Steelers matchup for Week 5 Sunday Night Football, analyzing NFL DFS ownership projections and player projections for DraftKings and FanDuel.
Cowboys-Steelers DFS Picks: Sunday Night Football Week 5 NFL DFS
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With full coverage of Sunday night’s Cowboys-Steelers Showdown, let’s dive into the top plays and strategies for this thrilling slate.
Cowboys-Steelers DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 5: CeeDee Lamb
CeeDee Lamb
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $11,800
FanDuel: $17,000
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 17.49
FanDuel: 14.64
It is hard to consider anyone aside from CeeDee Lamb when featuring Dallas. Brandin Cooks was placed on the injured reserve Saturday with a knee infection. For those wondering, the infection occurred after a knee procedure following Week 4’s Thursday Night Football game.
Cooks was third on the team with 19 targets, tying him with fellow wideout Jalen Tolbert. The loss of Cooks is going to put even more defensive focus on Lamb, which is not a good thing with Pittsburgh firing on all cylinders.
The 22% target share for Lamb is light for a receiver of his caliber, though the lack of a running game, along with a depleted offensive line, has put the Dallas offense on shaky ground. Lamb has two touchdowns on the season, with yardage highs of 90 and 98. Last year he led the league in targets and receptions, tying Tyreek Hill with 29 plays of 20-plus yards while also finishing second to Hill in yards, yards per game and touchdowns. Projecting his current stats for a full 17 games has the 17th overall selection of the 2020 NFL Draft posting top-20 numbers, which is a huge difference in fantasy points.
Pittsburgh did shut down Drake London (three targets, two receptions, 15 yards) in Week 1 and Courtland Sutton (four targets, one reception, 26 yards) in Week 2. The Chargers were no threat at all in Week 3, and though last Sunday Joe Flacco led Indianapolis to a 27-24 upset after Anthony Richardson was lost to injury, the Colts still totaled only 225 aerial yards.
This is going to be a strength-on-strength matchup, with the Steelers having the edge on defense but Dallas having a long week to get ready for this matchup. Lamb carries the highest salary cap hit of any player on Sunday Night Football. He has the second-highest median fantasy point projection on DraftKings, though he falls to fourth on FanDuel with the half-PPR scoring system.
Tolbert is interesting on both DraftKings ($5,600) and FanDuel ($10,000), but we have to remember that in his 29 games, he has catches in only 16 and just 440 career receiving yards. That leaves third-year UDFA KaVontae Turpin and second-year man Jalen Brooks rounding out the rest of this motley crew.
Dallas Cowboys Positional Preview
Quarterback | Cowboys-Steelers NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 5
Dak Prescott is going to have to do some heavy lifting tonight, with inexperienced players being pressed into elevated roles on the offensive line, at wide receiver and in a dodgy rushing attack. After dealing with all of that, it will be T.J. Watt, Cameron Heyward, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Joey Porter Jr., DeShon Elliott and company waiting for him across the line of scrimmage.
It is going to take all of Prescott’s mobility to survive in the pocket, with Pittsburgh among the league leaders for quarterback hits, knockdowns and sacks. Keep in mind that Prescott has never really been a rushing threat, and even prior to his gruesome ankle injury in 2020, he was getting by on rushing touchdowns, not yardage or volume. Speaking of volume, Prescott is fourth in the league with 37.3 pass attempts per game and fifth with 268 yards. His six touchdowns have him ranked sixth, which is another obvious indicator that overall scoring and passing production have taken a major step back over the last couple of seasons.
Running Back | Cowboys-Steelers NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 5
No Dallas running back has topped 50 rushing yards this season. Yes, the Cowboys have been involved in some wild outcomes, crushing the Browns in Cleveland for a 33-17 Week 1 victory only to get boat raced at home by the New Orleans Saints 44-19 the following week. There is no shame in the 28-25 Week 3 loss to Baltimore, but not racking up yards against the New York Giants is embarrassing. The Cowboys did collect a 20-15 road victory, but the offense contributed only to a pair of field goals after Lamb’s 55-yard touchdown in the middle of the second quarter.
Ezekiel Elliott has seen his on-field participation evaporate after leading the team with 32 (51%) snaps in the opener, getting in for only 15 and 10 plays in the last two games.
For perspective, Hunter Luepke saw action on 30 and 29 plays over the last two weeks, including leading the backfield with a 52% snap share last Sunday. While he is mostly used in pass protection, he did have his first two carries of the season and has a pair of targets in three of the first four games.
Rico Dowdle appears to be the “lead” back, but it is hard to be excited with him contributing only 134 yards on 34 carries and 12 targets for nine catches, 74 yards, and a touchdown.
Stokastic NFL stat projections have him for 13.03 carries and 52.61 yards, accompanied by 2.5 targets, 1.8 receptions and close to 15 yards. There is around a 40% probability that the 26-year-old will reach pay dirt in some form or fashion.
Tight End | Cowboys-Steelers NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 5
Now for some positive analysis, Jake Ferguson has proven to be the real deal and worthy of carrying the torch for a long line of successful Dallas tight ends. Even though he missed the second game of the season, he trails only Lamb with his 23 targets, leading the team with 18 over the last two tilts. Luke Schoonmaker had six targets when Ferguson was out but just two other looks, both in Week 3, for the season.
There is around a 70/30 split between this duo for the on-field action, with Brevyn Spann-Ford also appearing now and then. The Cowboys are likely to employ two-tight end formations on around of quarter of their plays tonight, with the goal of helping the offensive line and the dearth of wide receiver talent. Depending on the success of this strategy, we could see coach Mike McCarthy lean on this personnel set even more.
Kicker | Cowboys-Steelers NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 5
Brandon Aubrey has a 94.1% conversion rate on 48 career field goal attempts. Thursday saw him with his first miss of the season, though he is still perfect on seven point after touchdown attempts. Oh, he also had a 65-yarder this season, which is the second longest in NFL history. The wind can be a little tricky at the venue formerly known as Heinz Field, but Aubrey is already one of the best in the game, which is impressive since he was a college soccer player of note, bouncing around the MLS for a couple of seasons after his time at Notre Dame ended.
Defense | Cowboys-Steelers NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 5
Dallas has eight sacks through the first month of the season, with Pittsburgh ceding 10. The run-heavy approach of the Steelers has led to only one interception, accompanied by a pair of fumbles. The Cowboys have four picks but have yet to recover a fumble.
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Cowboys-Steelers NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 5: Justin Fields
Justin Fields
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,800
FanDuel: $15,500
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 20.22
FanDuel: 20.04
In a wild twist, Justin Fields has led Pittsburgh to a 3-1 record. It is obviously a small sample size, but he is pacing for personal highs in nearly every passing category while still being a threat with his legs. Last Sunday, he became the first quarterback in franchise history to throw for 300 yards, run for 50 and score three touchdowns in the same game. Kordell Stewart had a game of 333 passing yards, two touchdowns, and 55 rushing yards and one of 303 passing yards, three touchdowns, 49 rushing yards, and two more touchdowns — so that one less rushing yard is kind of a technicality.
Make no mistake, this appears to be a new and improved Fields, who perhaps really did need the proverbial change of scenery. The Cowboys will be without Micah Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence and Jordan Phillips, with Trevon Diggs (ankle), Caelen Carson (shoulder) and Marist Liufau (quad) questionable. Even if all three of the questionable players are able to suit up, this is not the same fearsome defense that was projected at the start of the season.
Dallas has seen running quarterbacks each of the last two weeks, and while Daniel Jones did most of his damage through the air on Thursday Night Football, Lamar Jackson rolled up 87 yards and a tuddie on 14 totes in Week 3.
Fields has the highest median fantasy point projection of everyone in the player pool, which is no surprise and often was the case while he was in Chicago. However, under coach Mike Tomlin and new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, it seems the former Ohio State star has leveled up with his floor and also may have more consistency in attaining his upside.
Pittsburgh Steelers Positional Preview
Running Back | Cowboys-Steelers NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 5
Jaylen Warren is out again with a knee issue, and 33-year-old Cordarrelle Patterson is out with an ankle injury. Last week, Patterson managed only nine snaps, with Najee Harris getting 69% of the action. Aaron Shampklin stepped between the line for the first time this season, and the undrafted rookie out of Harvard saw one carry on 13 plays.
Veteran special-teamer Jonathan Ward has been moved up from the practice squad to serve as the third running back. Ward was a UDFA out of Central Michigan in 2020, and he has spent time with the Cardinals, Jets and Titans. For his career, Ward has 17 carries and eight targets, getting at least one opportunity in 10 of the 21 games where he was on the field with the offense.
Harris is obviously the trusted option, but the fourth-year back has averaged only 3.9 yards per carry for his career. Yes, he has had a few big games as a pass-catcher, but he has averaged only 17.3 receiving yards per game in his 55 NFL games. Shampklin will be the next man up, and while he was successful at Harvard, the Steelers are his fourth NFL team, and he also had a trio of tilts in the USFL. The former Crimson running back is in play on both DraftKings ($2,000) and FanDuel ($5,000).
Ward is a thin play on DraftKings at the $200 minimum salary, but he is a “win the lottery three weeks in a row” type of play on FanDuel, where he has the same salary as Shampklin.
Wide Receiver | Cowboys-Steelers NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 5
The Steelers are ranked 23rd this season with an average of 27.3 passing attempts per game. George Pickens leads the team with 29 targets for a 28% share. The rest of the wideouts have totaled 20 targets: Calvin Austin III has 10, Van Jefferson eight and Scotty Miller two. Aside from Ben Skowronek getting nine snaps in Week 2, no other wideouts have seen action.
There is not really much analysis here, other than to state the obvious of Pickens being a priority play, who likely is safer than Harris when it comes to fantasy points. Jefferson will be on the field for around 80% of the snaps, with Austin for half of the plays. In Week 3, Miller had 38 snaps to Jefferson’s 11, but last week Jefferson tied Pickens with 60 snaps while Miller slid back to irrelevance with nine.
Tight End | Cowboys-Steelers NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 5
Salvation in the passing game has not yet been bestowed to the tight end position, but at least it is clear that Pat Freiermuth has the edge over Darnell Washington. Freiermuth has 20 targets while playing on around 75% of the snaps, with Washington getting half the time and earning just four looks. MyCole Pruitt had two targets in the opener, but he is out for a third consecutive game, opening the door for Connor Heyward to see 29 snaps in his absence, albeit with just one lonely target.
Kicker | Cowboys-Steelers NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 5
Chris Boswell’s lone Pro Bowl was all the way back in 2017, but the 33-year-old does have nearly an 88% success rate on field goals over the last five-plus seasons. That is impressive considering he is in the elements for all of his home games and in any AFC North matchups. He already has six attempts from 50-plus yards, converting on five. This is a new twist, as the longtime Steeler has a career high of nine field goal attempts from that range in both the 2021 and 2022 seasons.
Defense | Cowboys-Steelers NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 5
Dallas has two interceptions and one lost fumble this season, ceding 10 sacks. The Steelers are off the Blitzburgh pace, though the team is still respectable with 11 sacks, plus four interceptions and a fumble recovery.
Cowboys-Steelers NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 5: Rankings
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Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Cowboys-Steelers
- Justin Fields: Feels like the perfect time for him to break the hearts of his DFS backers.
- CeeDee Lamb: Would have gotten top honors if this game were in Dallas.
- Dak Prescott: Dak Attack is going to need to be in full effect to avoid an embarrassing situation tonight.
- George Pickens: Even on FanDuel, he feels more trustworthy than Harris.
- Jake Ferguson: Also would slide above Pickens if this game were in Jerry’s World.
- Brandon Aubrey: Such a great story and turning into a great kicker.
- Najee Harris: Absolutely play him in cash games (H2H, 3-mans, 50/50s, etc.) but leaving him off some tournament rosters is a quick path to differentiation.
- Chris Boswell: Trusty and unflappable veteran.
- Rico Dowdle: Still time for him to have a productive season but looking more and more like it will be an uphill climb.
- Jalen Tolbert: Remember it was less than a year ago where he still couldn’t get on the field over the now retired Michael Gallup.
Secondary Options
- Pittsburgh D/ST: Blitzburgh, Baby!
- KaVontae Turpin: Live for a touchdown on limited touches, volume shaky at best. Returns punts and shares kickoff duty with safety Juanyeh Thomas.
- Pat Freiermuth: Lands in this section, but just barely. That is even after the author reduced things down from five slots to three.
Lottery Tickets
- Dallas D/ST: This ranking assumes all the questionable players are playing.
- Ezekiel Elliott: How the mighty have fallen.
- Van Jefferson: Ugh, this got double-dicey in a hurry.
- Aaron Shampklin: Salary saver, should be on the field for a couple dozen snaps, could get 6 to 10 opportunities in relief of Harris.
- Calvin Austin III: Returns punts, likely will move to kickoffs with both Warren and Patterson out.
- Hunter Luepke: Being on the field has not translated to touches — yet.
- Jalen Brooks: In play around lineup No. 20 on DraftKings and No. 50 on FanDuel.
- Deuce Vaughn and Jonathan Ward: Similar players for their respective teams.
- Darnell Washington and Luke Schoonmaker: TE2s who will be on the field at least.
- Scotty Miller: Doesn’t know about Fiona and me.
- Roman Wilson, Brandon Johnson, Rodney Williams II, Brevyn Spann-Ford, Terry Bradshaw and Hershel Walker: Just say no.
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