Cowboys-Giants DFS Picks: Week 4 Thursday Night Football NFL DFS

Week 4 Thursday Night Football has a 45.5 projected total, with the Dallas Cowboys getting a 5.5-point advantage heading to the East Coast to take on the New York Giants. This adds to the strategy and decision points across the NFL DFS world. In this edition of Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’re diving into the Cowboys-Giants showdown for Week 4 Thursday Night Football, evaluating NFL DFS ownership projections and player projections for DraftKings and FanDuel.

Cowboys-Giants DFS Picks: Thursday Night Football Week 4 NFL DFS

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With comprehensive coverage of Thursday night’s Cowboys-Giants Showdown, let’s dive into the top plays and strategy for this exciting slate.

Cowboys-Giants DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 4: CeeDee Lamb

The 25-year-old leads Dallas with 24 targets, and while that is disappointing compared to the NFL leaderboard, he has one fewer than the tight ends combined and two fewer than the running backs for Dallas.

That 19.7% target share is likely to tick up to around one of every four passes being earmarked for Lamb. Last year the three-time Pro Bowl nominee and current First-Team All-Pro wideout had nearly a 30% target share for the Cowboys, led the league in targets (181) and receptions (135), and ranked second in yards (1,749) and touchdowns (12), trailing only Tyreek Hill in these categories. This dynamic duo each had 29 plays of 20-plus yards, which was atop the leaderboard.

Third-year receiver Jalen Tolbert is second among Dallas wideouts, with 16 targets. The former third-round selection in the 2022 NFL Draft only played in eight games his rookie season, getting just three targets. Last year he at least was on the field, seeing action in all 17 games and starting six. The stats were not there with Lamb, the now-retired Michael Gallup and well-traveled veteran Brandin Cooks all ahead of him in the pecking order.

Gallup moved on to Las Vegas this offseason, though he abruptly retired in late July. Cooks celebrated his 31st birthday yesterday, and despite having the distinction of 1,000 receiving yards six times with four different franchises, his last was in 2021 with Houston, and he had 657 yards in his inaugural season with the Cowboys, despite playing in 16 games and starting five.

Though Tolbert has only one more target through three games than Cooks (16 to 15), things do appear to be trending positively for the enigmatic South Alabama pass-catcher. Expect to see Jalen Brooks and KaVontae Turpin on the field for 15 to 20 plays apiece, with each likely to get a couple of targets, albeit as tertiary options.

Dallas Cowboys Positional Preview

Quarterback | Cowboys-Giants NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 4

After 2022, when Dak Prescott led the league with 15 interceptions, there was much handwringing by the NFL pundits and fantasy analysts that he was a liability. Nope, it was a one-season wrinkle, as last year he cut his interception rate from 3.8% to 1.5%, which was his second-best campaign. For those wondering, his 2021 season saw him with a 1.7% rate, which was below his 1.9% career-mark. So yeah, small sample sizes strike again.

Prescott was named to his third Pro Bowl team last year and finished second in the NFL MVP race. He led the league with 410 completions and 36 passing scores while ranking among the top 5 signal-callers in most other statistical categories.

This year he leads the league with 122 attempts, and while it has been just three games, it looks like the Dallas defense is far worse than projected. The team allowed 44 points to New Orleans in Week 2 and 28 to a meandering Baltimore squad last week. If the Giants can put some points on the board tonight, that bodes well for the Cowboys leaning on Prescott for all the heavy lifting.

One last note: Though Prescott does have a rushing score this season, as well as showing that he has regained his mobility in the pocket, he has never been much of a running quarterback. Yes, he scored a lot of touchdowns on the ground, with six in each of his first three seasons, but since his gruesome ankle injury in 2020, he has run for only five tuddies in the last 48 games, averaging 3.2 carries and 12.3 rushing yards per appearance in this stretch.

Running Back | Cowboys-Giants NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 4

Ezekiel Elliott looking old is not a surprise considering that Dallas let him walk last offseason, though the mutual love affair resumed this year after a short dalliance with coach Bill Belichick and New England. The veteran is now in his ninth NFL season, with his last Pro Bowl appearance coming prior to the pandemic. He is now firmly in the “If you need 2 yards, he will get you 3 … if you need 7 yards, he will get you 3” phase of his career.

Elliott had two red zone opportunities in each of his first two outings, though none last week. Expect owner, de facto GM and undisputed shot caller Jerry Jones to see that Elliott gets some luv on primetime tonight.

The three games have seen the backfield participation fall dramatically for Elliott from 51%, to 40% to 19%, albeit with Dallas trailing for most of the last two games. Rico Dowdle has held steady with 44%, 43% and a 46% snap share, and Hunter Luepke has been in the mix for 32%, 14% and 38%.

Expect Dowdle to continue to consolidate more of the every-down work, though he may not even come close to the offseason wish-casting that was anointing him as into a strong DFS RB2 role. He is the best “combo” back of the bunch, and the Giants allowed 109 combined yards to Aaron Jones on 16 opportunities in Week 1, with teammate Ty Chandler turning his 11 chances into 42 yards. In Week 2, Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler rolled up 171 rushing yards on 25 carries and 50 receiving yards on six targets.

There should be opportunities for the entire backfield, though the actual breakdown of production will be semi-fluid.

The Stokastic NFL stat projections have Dowdle with 10.8 carries and 46.9 yards, Elliott for 8.4 totes and 32.2 yards, and Deuce Vaughn sneaking in for a carry or two on a specifically designed play.

Each of the lead backs is looking at between two and three targets, with Vaughn and Luepke combining for a similar share of the pie.

Tight End | Cowboys-Giants NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 4

Across coaching staffs and starting quarterbacks, the tight end position has always been a mainstay of the Dallas offense. Although Jake Ferguson missed the second game, he led the team with 11 targets last week and is tied with Tolbert at 16 targets.

Last year, Ferguson was also second on the team in targets, and he had an even better statistical season than what his predecessor Dalton Schultz authored in 2022. Now that Peyton Hendershot is in Kansas City, Luke Schoonmaker is the unquestioned TE2, getting six looks when Ferguson was out in Week 2 and a pair of targets last week.

Undrafted rookie Brevyn Spann-Ford is likely to see the field for 10 to 12 plays, though at 6-foot-7 and 270 pounds, he is more of a blocking threat, having one target this year.

Kicker | Cowboys-Giants NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 4

Brandon Aubrey has made all 10 of this field goal attempts this season, including five from 50-plus yards. The second-year phenom was perfect on 10 attempts from beyond 50 yards last year, and he already has the second-longest field goal in NFL history with a 65-yarder last Sunday — while record-holder Justin Tucker (66 yards) was on the other sideline. It is absurd to say, but a 70-yard attempt and conversion is not out of the realm of possibility.

Defense | Cowboys-Giants NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 4

New York is a mess, and for years the team has had offensive line woes and quarterbacks who have held on to the ball longer than conditions warrant. Dallas has a respectable seven sacks, three interceptions and a blocked kick through the initial trio of tilts, making this unit in play for fantasy purposes, even though it has been shaky from an NFL perspective. The Giants have allowed eight sacks this year, so expect that total to reach double digits tonight.

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Cowboys-Giants NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 4: Malik Nabers

Dallas is going to be all over Nabers, though that in turn will open things up for Wan’Dale Robinson (12, four and eight targets) underneath, and veteran Darius Slayton (four, four and two targets) is always lurking, along with having the most history with Jones.

Jalin Hyatt should be running 12 to 15 wind sprints, and he has 1.2 projected targets in Stokastic’s NFL stat projections. Bryce Ford-Wheaton was on the field for a single play in Week 2, though the UDFA rookie from West Virginia did not see the ball.

New York Giants Positional Preview

Quarterback | Cowboys-Giants NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 4

After being held in check by the Minnesota Vikings in Week 1, Danny Dimes has tossed a pair of touchdowns in each of the last two games. Sadly, he is averaging just over 200 passing yards in this pair of performances, though he did roll up 52 rushing yards on 11 carries.

While this is the second year of his “four year,” $160 million contract, the Giants do have an out after this season if Jones is healthy. If he ends up getting injured, then that complicates his release, so expect this to be a looming decision point later in the season.

For now, Jones is likely to be “the guy” if he can continue to help Nabers develop. Though New York is 1-2 and tied with Dallas, Washington and Philadelphia are not far ahead with 2-1 records. Jones does give the G-men the best chance to win, so while the team is in hailing distance of the NFC East lead, he should hold serve over backup Drew Lock.

Running Back | Cowboys-Giants NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 4

Veteran Devin Singletary has played on 70%, 79% and 68% of the snaps, with rookie Tyrone Tracy Jr. working in for 21%, 21% and 31%. Journeyman fullback Jakob Johnson has seen action on five total plays, while third-string running back Eric Gray has been between the lines for 10 plays this year.

Singletary is a capable three-down back, other than being undersized at 5-foot-7 and 203 pounds. He has averaged 4.6 yards per carry for his career and is also a good receiver. Each of the last three seasons, two in Buffalo and then last year in Houston, he has rushed for at least 820 yards while averaging around 1,100 yards from scrimmage.

Tracy was a fifth-round selection out of Purdue, and it looked like he was pulling even with Singletary until an injury limited him for the latter portion of training camp. Though he is a rookie, the 24-year-old utilized the pandemic exemption and the transfer portal, playing four seasons at Iowa before landing with Purdue for two more. In his six seasons, he played in 63 games, with 947 rushing yards and 1,201 receiving yards. He is about the same size as Singletary, so experience is really the only differentiator.

Expect the workload gap to close, with something close to an even split around Halloween. Tracy does have a fantasy point-per-dollar advantage on DraftKings, though the veteran has the better ratio on the blue site.

Tight End | Cowboys-Giants NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 4

Only two tight ends have seen targets this season for the Giants, with nary a look going their way in the second game. Of course, that also coincides with the 18-target game from Nabers, so the four, zero and three looks this season for rookie Theo Johnson are decent, though his two receptions for 31 yards are a little light. The fourth-rounder from Penn State is already out-snapping veteran Daniel Bellinger 80/20, with Bellinger getting one look in the first and third games.

Chris Manhertz has been blocking on around one-third of the offensive plays, with the Giants being his third team in the last three seasons. Despite debuting back in 2016, the 32-year-old has just 40 career targets.

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Kicker | Cowboys-Giants NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 4

Greg Joseph is perfect this season on three PATs, missing his only field goal attempt. Yup, though three games, he has had only four scoring chances. Field goals, of course, are fickle, and Joseph could get four tonight and it would not be a shock. Of course, any attempts from beyond 48-ish yards would be, as the 30-year-old NFL nomad has converted only just eight of his las 17 (47%) from 50 or more yards.

Defense | Cowboys-Giants NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 4

Dallas has allowed nine sacks this season while the G-men have 14, which is the second most in the league. New York has only one interception but three fumble recoveries on the year. The Cowboys have two picks and one lost fumble.

Cowboys-Giants NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 4: Rankings

Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Cowboys-Giants

1. CeeDee Lamb: Captain, my Captain!
2. Malik Nabers: The kid has impressed.
3. Dak Prescott: Back in the saddle again.
4. Devin Singletary: Seems to have the lead role in hand, for a few more games anyway.
5. Daniel Jones: It would be so fun for a vintage Danny Dimes 40-plus yard run on a broken play.
6. Jake Ferguson: Much like last year, looks like Ferguson will be the second-most targeted player on the team.
7. Brandon Aubrey: How fun would it be if kicks of 60-plus yards got more than 5 points and, say, a 70-yarder was worth 10 points, sort of like the DraftKings No-Hitter bonus?
8. Wan’Dale Robinson: Likely to be peppered with targets again, red zone opportunities less likely.
9. Rico Dowdle: Reasonable ranking; hard to see him in the multiplier slot without a two-touchdown game.
10. Jalen Tolbert: Is this the ceiling, or is he really resetting his baseline?

Secondary Options

1. Ezekiel Elliott: A primetime hurrah will be based entirely on him getting in the end zone.
2. Greg Joseph: Volume and distance suspect; clearly was an imposter “Greg the Leg” while Zuerlein was the true bearer of that moniker, at least back in the day.
3. Dallas D/ST: Jones is the perfect facilitator for both a pick-6 or a scoop-and-score.
4. Darius Slayton: Has the best rapport with Jones but in the sunset portion of his career. In the mix for punt returns.
5. New York D/ST: Dak sacks are on the takeout menu.

Lottery Tickets

1. Tyrone Tracy Jr: There is an argument that he could be above Elliott in the Secondary Options section, which just shows how flat the secondary tier is for this slate.
2. Theo Johnson: The $2,400 on DraftKings is appealing, with a minor case that he is a cash game (H2H, 3-mans, 50/50s) discount dandy. For FanDuel, the $6,000 is appropriate, but the ceiling will be hard to reach without him finding paydirt.
3. Luke Schoonmaker: Needs something to befall Ferguson in game to facilitate a sizable fantasy contribution. That is just one lever, with a fortuitous red zone touch being a second path. That keeps him above the rest of the fray, but make no mistake, he is not really in play for those crafting fewer than a dozen lineups.
4. Deuce Vaughn: Likely will get a couple of opportunities but hard to see them being in the red zone. Even if Elliott or Dowdle gets hurt, Vaughn is not likely to get much of a boost.
5. Kyle Turpin: Main punt returner; shares kickoff return duties with safety Juanyeh Thomas.
6. Eric Gray: Distinctly behind Singletary, as well as Tracy, who also shares the kickoff return role.
7. Daniel Bellinger, Jalin Hyatt, Jalen Brooks and Hunter Luepke: These players will assuredly be on the field, likely approaching double-digit opportunities as a collective. Figuring out which is the best play is not really possible until the game ends. TLDR: Keep them in your player pool.
8. Ihmir Smith-Marsette: Unlikely to see action on offense, though likely active as a special-teamer.
9. Chris Manhertz, Bryce Ford-Wheaton, Brevyn Spann-Ford and Gunner Olszewski: See you in the funny papers.

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