Cowboys-49ers DFS Picks: Week 8 Sunday Night Football NFL DFS

Sunday Night Football has a 46.5 projected total as two of the most successful franchises in the NFL are taking the field tonight in San Francisco with the 49ers hosting the Dallas Cowboys. Even with all of the injuries to their skill position players, the Niners are 4.5-point favorites, which adds to the strategy and decision points across the NFL DFS world. In this installment of Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’re breaking down the Cowboys-49ers matchup for Week 8 Sunday Night Football, analyzing NFL DFS ownership projections and player projections for DraftKings and FanDuel.

Cowboys-49ers DFS Picks: Sunday Night Football Week 8 NFL DFS

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Cowboys-49ers DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 8: Dak Prescott

On the season, Sam Darnold (268/2/1) is the only quarterback with multiple touchdowns against San Francisco, while Geno Smith (312/1/2) is the only opposing signal-caller to surpass Darnold’s yardage total. Kyler Murray (195/1/1), Matthew Stafford (221/1/0), Aaron Rodgers (167/1/1) and Patrick Mahomes (154/0/2) all were held in check by this defense.

Prescott has at least been able to move the ball, with his 267 aerial yards per game ranking fourth in the league, though his eight touchdowns and six picks in half a dozen outings are no bueno. Dallas is coming off a bye, having been steamrolled by Detroit 47-9, in Jerry World. On a positive note, Prescott became engaged during the break, so hopefully this helps change his on-field karma.

Dallas Cowboys Positional Preview

Running Back | Cowboys-49ers NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 8

San Francisco is allowing 112.9 rushing yards per game and the 49ers are in the middle of the pack with 4.4 yards per carry. The Cowboys have been beyond dreadful at a league-low 77.2 rushing yards per game and, even worse, just 3.5 yards per carry. Since posting 40 yards and a touchdown in the opener, Ezekiel Elliott has not surpassed 20 yards in a game, totaling 28 carries for 70 yards 92.5 yards per carry) and no touchdowns.

Rico Dowdle is ostensibly the lead back, but not by much, as he has only two games with more than 32 rushing yards: 11 carries for 46 in a Week 4 road game against the New York Giants and 20 for 87 in Pittsburgh Week 5. He did score receiving touchdowns in both games, accounting for his only scores for the season.

Looking at the snap shares, it is even more dismal, with Dowdle leading the way (43%) while never playing more than half the snaps, Elliott (33%) doing a lot of pass blocking when he is on the field and Hunter Luepke seeing two fewer offensive plays than Elliott. No other running backs have stepped between the lines on offense since Week 4. Turning our attention to the target distribution, Dowdle has 20, Elliott has nine and Luepke eight. Just think if the team had considered Kareem Hunt, instead of Dalvin Cook this preseason.

In a fun twist, Cook has been elevated from the practice squad and is expected to make his debut tonight. There is no word on if this would mean Elliott would be inactive. If Elliott is a go, it is hard to see Cook for more than a handful of opportunities. If Elliott is out, then the projection would be for 6 to 8 combined carries and targets, with a potential hot hand pushing him into a timeshare with Dowdle. Ladies and gentlemen, America’s Team!

Wide Receiver | Cowboys-49ers NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 8

Last year CeeDee Lamb lead the league in targets and receptions, tying Tyreek Hill with 29 plays of 20-plus yards and ranking second to Hill in touchdowns and yards per game. This year Lamb is seventh overall with 77.8 yards per game and in the top 10 with 9.2 targets per tilt. He also has half a dozen receptions of 20-plus yards, but only two tuddies to his credit. Brandin Cooks remains out, and with the anemic rushing attack, the 49ers will be able to roll coverage towards Lamb all night.

Stokastic’s NFL stat projections have the target distribution broken out with 9.5 going to Lamb, 5.2 to Jalen Tolbert, 2.9 to KaVontae Turpin, 2.5 to Jalen Brooks and tight end Jake Ferguson getting the second most with 6.1.

Tolbert did have 10 targets in Week 5, though only five against the Lions. Turpin had a season high seven in that game and Brooks also had a season high with six of his 14 looks coming against Detroit.

Fortunately, DFS has a salary cap and everyone is choosing from the same player pool. Tolbert is a neutral option on both sites, though very much on the shortlist of desirable players. Brooks is the most intriguing on DraftKings ($1,200), while Turpin really stands out on FanDuel ($7,500). Turpin is the main punt returner, already scoring one touchdown this season. He shares kickoff return duties with safety Juanyeh Thomas.

Tight End | Cowboys-49ers NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 8

Ferguson missed Week 2, but he is tied with Tolbert for the second-most targets (34) on the season. The trend is not our friend, with his last four games seeing a steep decline from a high of 11 targets, followed by back-to-back seven target outings, then a season low four heading into the bye. This is likely an aberration, though also an indication that opposing defenses understand he is the best offensive option after Lamb.

Luke Schoonmaker had six targets filling in for Ferguson in Week 2, but he has had two, zippy, two and zilch in the last four games. Brevyn Spann-Ford had three of his four targets in Week 5, though the undrafted rookie will at least see the field for around a dozen snaps tonight. Ferguson will play 70% of the time, with Schoonmaker around 35% and the team in two-tight end sets every fifth play or so. That rate could rise if the depleted offensive line needs more blocking help.

Kicker | Cowboys-49ers NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 8

Brandon Aubrey already has a 65-yard field goal this season, the second longest in the history of the NFL. Last year as a 28-year-old rookie, he was named the league’s All-Pro kicker while posting a wild 36 makes on 38 (95%) field goal attempts. Through six games, he already has nine field goal attempts from beyond 50 yards, failing to convert only one of those efforts.

Defense | Cowboys-49ers NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 8

Dallas has only 14 sacks and seven takeaways on the season, though San Francisco has the third-most turnovers (11), ceding two quarterback sacks per contest.

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Cowboys-49ers DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 8: Brock Purdy

Dallas will again be missing two of their key pass rushers with both LB Micah Parsons and DE DeMarcus Lawrence sidelined due to injuries. Defensive back DaRon Bland and defensive linemen Jordan Philips and Marshawn Kneeland are also out, while cornerback Caelen Carson (shoulder) and linebackers Eric Kendricks (shoulder) and Nick Vigil ( foot) are questionable. These injuries somewhat offset all of the missing offensive players for San Francisco, which actually keeps Purdy in the mix as one of the best DFS options tonight.

This year Purdy has averaged 22 rushing yards per game, which is well above his career rate of 9.7 yards per game. His 4.5 yards per carry is also dramatically above his 2.6 per carry rate heading into this season. The Stokastic projections have him earmarked for 6.15 carries, 20.14 yards and nearly a 20% probability of finding pay dirt.

San Francisco 49ers Positional Preview

Running Back | Cowboys-49ers NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 8

Three different running backs have had multiple rushing touchdowns against Dallas while averaging 115.3 rushing yards and eight backs have posted at least 50 combined yards this season. Jordan Mason has been on the field for 75% of the snaps in five of seven games, though he only has 12 targets on the season. That could increase tonight, but so far coach Kyle Shanahan has been content to let Mason focus on running the ball.

Through the first four games, Mason had 28, 20, 19, and 24 carries and three 100-yard games, with one touchdown in each of those century-mark performances. The last three games saw him log 14, nine and 14 totes for 89, 73 and 58 yards. That middle game of the second data set was against Seattle, when Mason hurt his shoulder and played on just 18 snaps, with 11 offensive opportunities.

Fullback Kyle Juszczyk has been on the field for nearly 60% of the offensive plays this season, a significant increase from his 48% and 47% rates the last two years. He already has 17 targets, matching his total from last year. Despite what most gamers think about Juszczyk, he does not get many carries, with only 57 attempts for 206 yards and five touchdowns in his 115 games for San Francisco, spanning seven seasons and change, and he earned earning Pro Bowl honors each year. In this timeframe he has averaged a tick over two targets per game, though most of those opportunities were between 2017 and 2021. He does have seven targets in the last two games, though that has resulted in only three receptions for 10 yards. He is still in play, but it is important to note that even with all of the injuries, it is going to take luck or a touchdown for the 33-year-old to have more than a handful of fantasy points.

Isaac Guerendo will probably see around a dozen offensive plays tonight, as long as Mason is healthy and effective. In Week 6 when Mason was hurt, Guerendo and former Green Bay Packer Patrick Taylor Jr. split the snaps. Guerendo had 10 carries for 99 yards, while Taylor had five for 16, converting his lone target into a 12-yard catch.

Wide Receiver | Cowboys-49ers NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 8

Someone is going to be running routes and getting targets, however, there is an incredibly convoluted “if/then” statement that leads to chaos. Samuel would be a “must play” if he were not dealing with pneumonia and even if he is active, there is no clue about his potential effectiveness. Jennings was amazing in Week 3, when Samuels was out — posting 11 receptions, 175 yards and a trio of tuddies.

Last week rookie Ricky Pearsall saw his first action, converting five targets into three receptions for 21 yards. He was shot in the chest just before the start of the season in a robbery gone wrong, though as the 31st selection in the 2024 NFL Draft, the former Florida Gator was a San Francisco priority. He was on the field for 78% of the snaps, so expect him to at least be a full-go.

Veteran Chris Conley had a season high 70% snap share, with Samuel logging four before leaving for the hospital, while Aiyuk had 25 before his knee injury. Conley at least is a 10-year veteran, and while his last touchdown was in 2021 and he has only 18 targets over the last two-plus seasons, we at least know he has experience on his side. This has him above second-year man Ronnie Bell, fourth-round rookie Jacob Cowing and fellow NFL nomad Trent Taylor.

Tight End | Cowboys-49ers NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 8

Kittle was limited in practice this week with a sore foot, which, of course, is cause for pause. He is the key to the San Francisco running game, as his presence adds nearly 1 yard per carry over the last couple of seasons. When everyone is healthy, Kittle is a luxury option and well down the offensive pecking order. It is fun to note that the former Iowa Hawkeye has three of the top 12 single-game receiving yardage performances. His seven multi-touchdown games are also impressive, with none actually occurring in the aforementioned trio of tilts. Last year in Week 5 on Sunday Night Football, Kittle had a personal-best three touchdowns on just four targets, against the Dallas Cowboys. Will lightning strike twice?!

Quick, name another tight end on the San Francisco roster. Nope, you are wrong! Ross Dwelley and Charlie Woerner are in Atlanta and Tucker Kraft is out of the league. Journeyman Eric Saubert is the TE2 and the 49ers are his third team in three seasons and his sixth career franchise. In Week 3, when Kittle was out, he played on 86% of the snaps, with Jake Tonges logging 16 of his 26 offensive plays on the year and Brayden Willis getting all four of his snaps in that game. In the four games since, Saubert has zero targets, while Kittle has 29. Enjoy!

Kicker | Cowboys-49ers NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 8

The 49ers have already lost two kickers to injury, as second-year man Jake Moody suffered a high-ankle sprain on his right leg while making a tackle in Week 5. Matthew Wright was the Week 6 kicker, converting all three field goals and a trio of PATs, but injuring his shoulder. Tonight Anders Carlson will be the third kicker to suit up for San Francisco in as many weeks, with the sixth-round selection being cut by Green Bay after a shaky season that saw him miss a league high five extra points. His brother Daniel, who kicks for the Las Vegas Raiders is clearly the more talented of the two, but that does not make a difference for Sunday Night Football.

Defense | Cowboys-49ers NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 8

Prescott is being sacked 6.7% of the time, which is the highest rate he has had in the last six seasons, above even the 6.2% of last year. He is also on pace for 17 interceptions, which is among the worst in the league. It is hard to be effective when opposing defenses are not going to respect the run. The Niners are around league average with 2.7 sacks per game, ranking third overall with 13 takeaways.

Cowboys-49ers NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 8: Rankings

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Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Cowboys-49ers

1. Dak Prescott: Dak Attack!
2. Brock Purdy: Let’s see how his efficiency holds up without most of his supporting cast.
3. CeeDee Lamb: Pulling the wool over nobody.
4. George Kittle: Hopefully that foot is a non-issue.
5. Deebo Samuel: How long does it take for a finely tuned physical specimen to recover from pneumonia and then play this brutal sport at a high level?
6. Jake Ferguson: Needs a touchdown to be a real difference maker.
7. Brandon Aubrey: What a leg!
8. Ricky Pearsall: Core play, upside in question since this is only his second career game.
9. Jordan Mason: Lack of passing game involvement hurts him on DraftKings with an $11,000 salary.
10. Chris Conley: He will be on the field a lot; it just takes a couple catches to become profitable on DraftKings ($2,800).

Secondary Options

1. Jalen Tolbert: 15 targets in the two games without Cooks.
2. Rico Dowdle: What happened to the passing game role?!
3. San Francisco D/ST: Will be a popular play, in consideration for cash games (H2H, 3-mans, 50/50s, etc.).
4. Anders Carlson: Chance at redemption for last year’s PAT debacle which cost him his job in Green Bay.
5. KaVontae Turpin: Could get lost in the secondary and turn in a solid play or two.

Lottery Tickets

1. Kyle Juszczyk: Not as exciting as most casual players will think, gains more red zone appeal if Kittle or Samuels are out.
2. Dalvin Cook, Ezekiel Elliott and Hunter Luepke: Franchise favorite now in the bargain bin with a fullback and a potential inactive with Cook being elevated from the practice squad. If Elliott were to be a healthy scratch, Cook would be the best play on DraftKings ($1,000), even with only 6 to 8 touches and in the mix as a borderline core play on FanDuel ($5,000) at the minimum salary. If Elliott is inactive, Cook would basically be tied with Dowdle above, taking salary into account.
3. Isaac Guerendo: Would vault up five spots if Mason were out, DraftKings ($7,000) preemptively increased his salary. Lead kickoff return man.
4. Jalen Brooks: Punt du jour on DraftKings ($1,200).
5. Ronnie Bell and Jacob Cowing: Former likely to get more snaps, latter is the main punt returner — both are tough clicks, unless Samuel or Kittle is out.
6. Patrick Taylor Jr.: Hard to trust, even if Mason is limited.
7. Luke Schoonmaker, Eric Saubert and Brevyn Spann-Ford: Happy National Tight End Day!
8. Ryan Flournoy, Deuce Vaughn, Droppa Deuce, Troy Aikman and Steve Young: Not today, Gamers.

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