College football Week 5 has arrived. Unlike NFL DFS, college football has eliminated the DST position in favor of a Superflex, allowing you to roster a second quarterback. In most cases, this is the optimal strategy for CFB DFS. This article will break down all the key college football DFS picks for Week 5’s Saturday slate using Stokastic’s college football DFS projections and college football DFS ownership projections.
College Football DFS Picks & Projections for Week 5’s Saturday Slate
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Quarterback | College Football DFS Picks for Week 5
Marcel Reed ($7,000) — Moving multiple points through the week, Texas A&M now sits as a six point favorite over Arkansas in a game with 52.5 total. This game should have a decent pace with Arkansas ranking 28th in seconds per play. More importantly, Arkansas ranks 101st in total defense without a clear strength. Conner Weigman remains doubtful, setting up Reed for another start. Reed provides excellent mobility with 217 rushing yards already this year. Most of this occurred in Texas A&M’s two most recent games. He has 173 and 178 passing yards in those two games as well, giving him a solid floor/ceiling combination in this matchup. Reed can also be played solo due to his rushing.
Miller Moss ($7,300) — USC is a 15.5 point favorite over Wisconsin in a game with a 50.5 total. Even with Moss accounting for -28 cumulative yards this season, his price keeps him firmly in play. Moss averages 294.3 passing yards per game on 39.3 attempts. Wisconsin has been uncharacteristically bad on defense, ranking 93rd overall and 76th in coverage. USC stacks are cheap for this slate.
Arch Manning ($9,000) — Texas has a 50 point implied team total as a 38.5 point favorite over Mississippi State in a game with a 61.5 total. Quinn Ewers remains questionable, so this situation needs monitoring. However, little has separated Ewers and Manning from a passing efficiency perspective. For DFS, Manning actually provides the superior rushing ability. With little resistance expected from Mississippi State’s defense, finding the salary for a Texas player looks like a solid idea.
Avery Johnson ($8,000) — Kansas State enters Week 5 as a five point favorite over Oklahoma State in a game with a 57.5 total. Overall, Oklahoma State ranks fifth in pace and Kansas State comes in 77th. Improving matters further, Oklahoma State ranks 96th in coverage this year. Perhaps this matchup with coax Johnson into increased efficiency after struggling to start the season. Johnson has only averaged 153.5 passing yards per game. However, he more than makes up for it on the ground with 261 cumulative yards through four games.
Running Back | College Football DFS Picks for Week 5
Wood Marks ($7,100) — Outside of the Utah State matchup, Marks has dominated running back opportunities for USC. Against LSU, he handled 19 of 21 touches. In Week 4, he handled 21 of 26 touches, including eight targets. Marks has touched a 60% route participation in competitive games, making him game script independent. Mentioned above, Wisconsin’s defense has struggled this year. They rank 100th against the run, which is their lowest mark on that side of the ball.
Dante Dowdell ($5,600) — Nebraska has elected to play Dowdell more in competitive games. Last week, Dowdell had 20 carries two targets. He also carried 17 times in a competitive Week 2 affair. Interestingly, Dowdell saw an increased role in the pass game at the expense of Rahmir Johnson. Dowdell’s routes jumped for 34%,while Johnson’s fell to 27%. Nebraska is a ten point favorite over a Purdue defense that currently allows 7.0 yards per carry to opposing offenses this season.
Devin Neal ($6,600) — One of the premier shootouts of the week, Kansas sits as a 2.5 point favorite over TCU in a game with a 59 point total. Kansas currently passes the ball 42.8% of the time, which has benefitted Neal. Even with Daniel Hishaw returning from injury last week, Neal still carried the ball 27 times and saw one target in the pass games. He currently averages 110.8 rushing yards per game and another 8.8 through the air. While Kansas doesn’t have a high target rate to running backs, Neal still has a route rate north of 70% of the last two weeks.
Dominic Richardson ($3,100) — An interesting Big12 matchup, Baylor finds themselves favored by three against BYU in a game with a 47 total. Amid their struggles, Baylor appears to have trimmed the fat from their backfield. Last week, Richard Reese and Dawson Pendergrass played seven combined snaps in favor of Richardson and Bryson Washington. Between the two, Richardson out-touched Washington 16-12. While the split should be close, Richardson comes in priced barely ahead of the stone minimum. His inclusion in lineups allows for unique constructions with multiple studs.
RJ Harvey ($8,900) — UCF currently sits as a two touchdown favorite over Colorado in a game with a 62 total. This team also has a 27% pass rate, which ranks among the lowest in the country. Despite numerous running back editions this offseason, Harvey has remained the focal point in the offense. In a shootout against TCU in Week 3, Harvey carried the ball 29 times, while seeing the game’s lone running back target. While expensive, there are paths to Harvey this week.
Wide Receiver | College Football DFS Picks for Week 5
Zachariah Branch ($5,000) — With Lake McRee and Makai Lemon getting hurt in USC’s Week 4 matchup, Branch saw his route share jump to 89%. He also received a team leading 11 targets within the game. USC has preferred to rotate pass catchers in the past, but they simply don’t have enough options or talent to take Branch off the field.
Will Pauling ($4,800) — On the other side of the USC game, Wisconsin’s leading receiver Pauling continues to play an absurd role. He currently accounts for a 34% target share within the offense. There still remains risk with Braedyn Locke under center. This is shown in his 63.7 receiving yards per game. However, he still provides a solid floor option for DFS.
Jahmal Banks ($3,900) — Even in games where Nebraska has led, they’ve maintained a fairly balanced pass to run ratio. Currently, they have a 48.2% pass rate on the year. This sets up Wake Forest transfer Banks as one of the better value options on the year. Fresh off a nine target game, Banks has a 16.8% target share, averaging 42.5 yards per game. Like most of their positions, Nebraska has consolidated opportunity in more competitive games, which this projects to be.
Darius Lassiter ($3,900) — On the other side of the Baylor game, BYU has maintained a 50.6% pass rate. This has benefitted Chase Roberts and Lassiter as he returns from injury. Lassiter now averages 6.0 targets per game for 38.3 yards. However, his routes have jumped in each consecutive week after missing Week 1. Last week, Lassiter led the team with an 87% route share.
Tai Felton ($7,700) — Maryland enters Week 4 as a touchdown underdog to Indiana in a game with a 51 total. However, Maryland has one of the top receivers in College Football in Felton. Felton now has 15 targets in three straight games with a 37.8% target share. He averages 150 receiving yards per game. While he will face a tougher matchup against Indiana, he still remains too cheap for his volume.
