CFB Week 3 Thursday DFS Picks, Projections and More: Don’t Sleep on These Lower-Level Games

College football Week 3 has arrived, and DraftKings is rolling out a two-game slate. Unlike NFL DFS, college football has eliminated the DST position in favor of a Superflex, allowing you to roster a second quarterback. In most cases, this is the optimal strategy for CFB DFS. As for this two-game slate, the pricing is fairly soft, making it easy to stack multiple stars in your lineup. This article will break down all the key CFB Week 3 DFS picks using Stokastic’s CFB DFS projections and CFB DFS ownership projections.

CFB Week 3 DFS Picks & Projections

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Note: Even with this being a two-game slate, the Northwestern State players do not have much DFS viability. It projects to come in around a 34-point underdog. Quarterback J.T. Fayard ($6,200) doesn’t run, the team uses a running back by committee, its pass rate is 44.6% and top wide receiver Myles Kitt-Denton ($5,400) is simply too expensive for his nine targets this season. There are better plays elsewhere.

Quarterback | Week 3 CFB DFS Picks

Sam Leavitt ($9,000) — Arizona State is favored by 1.5 points in a game with a 58.5 total. While Leavitt has only completed 57.1% of his passes while throwing 21 times per game, his involvement on the ground keeps him squarely in the cash conversation. He already has 115 rushing yards through two games. His passing numbers could be even better if his wide receivers had not dropped four passes. Texas State’s biggest defensive weakness is its 63rd-ranked pass coverage.

Jordan McCloud ($8,000) — The former James Madison quarterback operates an offense passing 40% of the time. McCloud averages 273.5 passing yards per game on just 28.5 attempts while offering modest mobility. Arizona State ranks 89th pass coverage, which should provide enough room for McCloud to operate.

Gio Lopez ($7,300) — South Alabama brings obvious intrigue as a 34-point favorite (according to ESPN’s S&P+) against a poor FCS team in Northwestern State. So far, it has passed 59.7% of the time, but that projects to drop with the positive game script. Lopez is probable, but his involvement in the run game makes him a high-upside mid-range play. He rushed for 62 yards and passed for 432 in South Alabama’s first game. Assuming full health, he should provide a quality CFB DFS floor.

Running Back | Week 3 CFB DFS Picks

Cam Skattebo ($6,500) — Perhaps the easiest click on the slate, Skattebo is fresh off a 33-carry, five-target game. He ranks second on the team in targets and has participated in 58.5% of the routes. Don’t overthink this one.

Ismail Mahdi ($6,000) — Mahdi touched the ball 29 times in Week 1 before Texas State annihilated UTSA in Week 2. His backup Lincoln Pare ($4,800) provides more of a threat than anything Skattebo will face. However, Mahdi is clearly a top-2 back on the slate.

Fluff Bothwell ($4,800) — South Alabama uses a nasty three-man committee between Bothwell, Braylon McReynolds ($5,200) and Kentrel Bullock ($5,000) on pass downs. With the projected game script, Bothwell and McReynolds are most intriguing. McReynolds is coming off an injury, potentially giving Bothwell a few more carries in a dream matchup.

Wide Receiver | Week 3 CFB DFS Picks

Jamaal Pritchett ($5,700) Pritchett has 14 and 11 targets for 264 yards through two games. Even with the team’s elevated run rate, he is an easy click at this volume. Behind him, Devin Voisin ($5,100) and Shamar Sandgren ($3,500) should operate as the WR2 and WR3. Sandgren actually has the second-most targets on the team and could make sense as a salary saver. D.J. Thomas-Jones ($3,500) will play tight end, but his routes hover around 70%.

Joey Hobert ($6,200) — Hobert and Kole Wilson ($5,600) each have 14 targets on full route participation. Playing both is certainly viable, but Hobert worked ahead of Wilson last year and has shown superior efficiency metrics. Texas State will rotate its third pass catcher between Jaden Williams ($4,800), Chris Dawn ($4,300) and tight end Konner Fox ($3,400). The Bobcats don’t always use a tight end, which has pushed Williams and Dawn to 57% and 46% of the routes. Fox comes in at 50%, and even dart throw Beau Sparks ($4,000) has 24% participation. In this game environment, they can be used intermittently, but focusing on Hobert and Wilson should be the priority.

Jordyn Tyson ($6,000) — Arizona State only has a 29.8% pass rate to this point in the season but may be forced to pass more here. Tyson accounts for a 32.5% target share to this point in the season and participates in nearly every route. Behind him, Xavier Guillory ($5,800) has a 91% route participation, and Melquan Stovall ($4,600) hovers at 77% as the WR3. He lost more snaps in Week 2, making him somewhat risky. Tight end is split almost 50/50 between Chamon Metayer ($3,800) and Markeston Douglas ($3,200). Paying up makes the most sense for those targeting Arizona State receivers.

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Author
Matt Gajewski graduated from the University of Wisconsin with a degree in Economics. Matt has worked in the fantasy industry for the past four years, focusing on DFS and Sports Betting. Matt specializes in NFL, College Football, College Basketball, XFL, and MMA. With GPP victories across the major sports, Matt also qualified for the DraftKings 2020 Sports Betting Championship and won a seat to the College Basketball Tourney Mania final.

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