In CFB DFS, finding value in underrated games can be a game-changer. While high-profile games often grab the spotlight, less popular matchups can offer hidden gems with significant upside. Here’s how finding these overlooked contests and leveraging Stokastic’s CFB DFS Sims and ownership projections can help you improve your CFB DFS contrarian strategy.
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CFB DFS Contrarian Strategy: Value In Underrated Games
Underrated games that aren’t the main focus of the public or major analysts can provide unique opportunities. These games will usually feature lower ownership projections and less attention from the public, which often results in less accurate pricing and projections. By targeting players from these games, you can gain an edge over competitors who are focused on the more popular matchups.
CFB DFS Ownership Strategy: Less Popular Matchups
Evaluate Game Environment
The environment of a game — such as pace of play, weather conditions and overall game script — plays a crucial role in CFB DFS. Look for games with high projected scores or fast-paced offenses that might not be on the public’s radar. These factors can lead to more scoring opportunities and fantasy points.
A game between two mid-tier teams with high-paced offenses and a projected high total score can often be overlooked. Players from such games may offer high upside due to the increased number of plays and potential for scoring.
Analyze Matchups and Injuries
Dive into matchup details and player injuries to identify potential value. Underrated games might feature key players who are stepping up due to injuries or unfavorable matchups for opposing defenses. If a key running back from an underrated team is injured, the backup may become a valuable play, especially if the matchup is favorable.
Look for Game Theory Opportunities
Sometimes the public’s focus on high-profile games creates opportunities to exploit lower-owned players. If a game is under the radar but projects to be a potential shootout, players from this game might have lower ownership, making them ideal for tournaments. A lesser-known quarterback with a favorable matchup in a game with a high over/under can be a great low-owned pivot, for example, and thus open up the opportunity for a solid contrarian stack.
Using Stokastic’s CFB DFS Sims
Stokastic’s CFB DFS Sims are powerful tools to help you find value in underrated games. Here’s how you can use them effectively:
Simulate Various Game Scenarios
Use Stokastic’s simulations to run thousands of scenarios for the games you’re interested in. This helps in understanding the potential performance of players in less popular matchups. By analyzing the simulated outcomes, you can identify players who are undervalued but have high upside. The simulations can find you lineups with high variance or potential for high scoring, and you can sort by lineups with the best chance of winning or finishing in the top 10% to identify games and stacks with unrecognized upside.
Compare Projections and Ownership
Compare Stokastic’s CFB DFS projections for players from underrated games against their ownership projections. Players with high projected points but low ownership can be valuable in GPPs. Our ownership projections will identify players who are projected to be lower-owned, and you can cross reference their projection to see if they offer value at their salary.
Conclusion
Identifying value in underrated games can provide a significant edge in CFB DFS. By focusing on less popular matchups and leveraging Stokastic’s CFB DFS Sims, you can uncover players with high upside that the public might overlook. Evaluate game environments, analyze matchups and injuries and use simulations to guide your strategy.
