This year’s RBC Canadian Open comes on the heels of a storybook finish. Last year it was native Nick Taylor’s insane 72-foot putt that clinched victory from Tommy Fleetwood, restoring balance with a Canadian victory. Whether another hometown success happens this year or not, that moment will be tough to duplicate or even exceed — especially with a lesser field ahead of two elevated events.
The field is certainly weaker despite Rory McIlroy, who apparently loves this event. He’s won two of the last three Canadian Opens — two were cancelled due to the pandemic. One of those wins came in 2019, the last time this event was played at Hamilton Golf and Country Club — a shorter course that has seen bombers and shorter tacticians thrive. We will look at some of the necessary course fits coming up, but McIlroy is clearly the name to beat this week, especially without any Scottie Scheffler action.
The course features two reachable par 5’s, two longer par 3’s and a mix of par 4’s rewarding shorter hitters overall — outside of McIlroy’s sheer domination in 2019.
If you’re looking for a local golfer to back beyond defending champion Nick Taylor, look no further than Corey Conners. Adam Hadwin and Mackenzie Hughes also make up a small handful of “local” golfers.
RBC Canadian Open First Round Leader Picks
Don’t forget our PGA DFS projections, lineup generator, contest simulator and weather splits tool. Want to improve your PGA DFS lineups? Get started with Lineup Generator for just $1 when using promo code ‘BERRYMANLG”. Click here to sign up!
The Keys To The Kingdom
Hamilton measures shorter than 7,100 yards and sees mid-range to shorter hitters off the tee thrive. This course isn’t inclusive like last week; we will see long hitters do well here, leading up to a mix of approach shots. Golfers will be tested this week specifically with long irons and wedges, with the focus on scoring holes. Given the two par 5’s reachable in two and long 3’s requiring more distance, the course will certainly demand length at times. We will see a total of seven par 4’s from 400-plus yards out, including two of 450-plus.
There’s always an emphasis on putting each week; it just depends on fit for the surface. This week’s Harry Colt course requires an adept feel on bentgrass, as the rough should be avoided with a healthy combo of bentgrass and fescue. This is far from an open course; it’s lined with trees but not so tight as to demand a shorter, more conservative approach. The biggest hurdle for most golfers this week will be the ups and downs of the undulating greens. False fronts, rising slopes and sharp drops await this field as the great equalizer.
RBC Canadian Open First-Round Leader Picks
RBC Canadian Open First Round Leader Picks: Sahith Theegala (+4000 at BetRivers)
Here we go with one of the tour’s most popular crowd favorites. How popular he will be for a first-round leader play is yet to be determined, but getting 40-1 on Sahith Theegala to lead after one day is worth a play. Theegala fits the specific criteria I want to meet this week, addressing two key areas that stand out here more than most courses. We know he can provide distance off the tee, and with wider fairways, landing spots aren’t as much in demand as we just saw in Texas.
In his young career, Theegala has established a comfort on bentgrass greens and putting extremely well to the field on that surface. It’s going to be a massive edge to score on 12- to 20-foot putts, best navigated with comfort on the surface. He brings that and an expert handle on his wedges, providing top-level accuracy from 150 yards or less. Even with the lengthening of two par 4’s, we should still see a heavy reliance upon wedge shots in that range as we did back in 2019. We look once again to a guy in Theegala who excels in this area to the current field.
Theegala has five top-10 finishes this calendar year, including a second-place finish at the RBC Heritage. Certain courses just fit better depending on what someone is doing each year. He has a strong fit for getting off with an early lead in full control of his wedges and putter. The correlation to top finishes this year has been the combination of these two elements: Approach shots and gaining strokes on the green, two things we target once again this weekend.
RBC Canadian Open First Round Leader Picks: Carson Young (+15000 at BetRivers)
There’s one intriguing longshot on the board to lead after the first round, another solid fit for Hamilton, following the above path laid out by Theegala. We get insane long odds at 150-1 for Carson Young, but remember, we are betting a first-round leader, not someone to win after four days. While the odds are similar here, there is a slight edge in taking Young where he excels in some key areas, much like Theegala and few others. There are several ways to play Young, as some books offer a top-10 (possibly top-20) first-round finish. I’d strongly suggest taking a look there on top of a small sprinkle here.
The two areas of focus remain the same: We target elite play with wedges and putters. Young isn’t good enough on tour to overcome other areas, be it distance or general accuracy off the tee. He comes off a horrific performance at the Charles Schwab, losing strokes on the green, which was his undoing. That was an uncharacteristic performance, however, as putting and approach shots have normally led to better finishes, at least making cuts.
Young is also playing a better fit for him — meaning his second shots will be easier than courses that demand a different approach off the tee.
If you need some more tips on how to manage your bankroll, Steve Buzzard has a great guide here on the biggest bankroll mistakes players make and how you can avoid them! Check it out HERE.
Stokastic’s PGA Tools & Expert Advice
Still need more PGA DFS advice? The rest of our expert articles are loaded with advice here to help, but even our experts need tools and that’s what a subscription to Stokastic will get you! Use the tools our pros use to win contests, like our PGA DFS projections, lineup generator, contest simulator and weather splits tool.
