Week 5 Thursday Night Football has a 45.5 projected total, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers listed as 1.5-point underdogs as they head north to Atlanta to square off against the Falcons. This adds to the strategy and decision points across the NFL DFS world. In this edition of Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’re diving into the Buccaneers-Falcons showdown for Week 5 Thursday Night Football, evaluating NFL DFS ownership projections and player projections for DraftKings and FanDuel.
Bucs-Falcons DFS Picks: Thursday Night Football Week 5 NFL DFS
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With comprehensive coverage of Thursday night’s Buccaneers-Falcons Showdown, let’s dive into the top plays and strategy for this exciting slate.
Buccaneers-Falcons DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 5: Bijan Robinson
Bijan Robinson
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,800
FanDuel: $14,500
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 19.43
FanDuel: 16.62
If it feels like the Falcons have been on the primetime docket a lot, it is because they have already played on Monday and Sunday Night Football in Week 1 and Week 3, respectively. Bijan Robinson was featured in that analysis, and he is again, though tonight he does carry a questionable tag with a balky hamstring.
Per the Atlanta practice report, the second-year back was a limited participant on Monday and Tuesday, though word is that he had a full practice on Wednesday.
Through the first month of the season, Robinson has participated on 89%, 75%, 82% and 64% of the offensive plays. Backup Tyler Allgeier has accounted for all but two of the remaining running back snaps, with 18%, 21%, 21% and 38% participation rates.
Robinson is averaging four targets per game, which is the threshold for elite backs, though in his rookie campaign he saw just over five opportunities from 2023’s patchwork group of quarterbacks. Allgeier is an adequate pass-catcher, but make no mistake: When he is on the field, most of his opportunities will be carries, having seen zero, one, zero and two looks on the year, converting them into three catches for 32 yards.
Allgeier has stand-alone value at his salary, though he will need a fortuitous touchdown or something to befall Robinson for him to uncork his potential fantasy upside. Avery Williams is the emergency option, having been on the field for only two plays, both back in the second game of the season. Most of his work is on special teams, meaning he is a “lightning striking three times in the same spot” sort of play.
Atlanta Falcons Positional Preview
Quarterback | Buccaneers-Falcons NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 5
While Kirk Cousins has physically looked better than he was in Week 1 as he continues to recover from a torn Achilles, he still has not been particularly effective. Cousins just turned 36 years old, and this is his 13th season in the league. In addition to returning from a major injury, he is playing for a new team that also has a new head coach. Cousins should continue to improve, but it is unlikely to happen tonight.
The Stokastic NFL stat projections have cousins for 20.2 completions, 29.8 attempts, 230.4 passing yards, 1.54 touchdowns and 0.88 turnovers. While that seems pedestrian, it is right in line with what the former Michigan State Spartan has produced in his last trio of tilts. The venerable veteran has not surpassed 250 yards, and he has only four touchdowns against four interceptions on the season.
Tampa Bay has been stout versus the pass, with three touchdowns and three interceptions through the first four games. Derek Carr (239 yards) was the first field general to amass more than 217 aerial yards this season.
Wide Receiver | Buccaneers-Falcons NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 5
In a crazy twist, Drake London, Darnell Mooney and Ray-Ray McCloud have played all but 13 snaps over the last three weeks. KhaDarel Hodge was on the field for two offensive plays in Week 3 and three last Sunday. These are the only wideouts who have seen the field this year for Atlanta. Keep in mind Rondale Moore was lost for the season with a knee injury, suffered in early August. It looks like coach Raheem Morris is going with a Titanium Three until further notice.
Hodge is the obvious emergency option, with sixth-round rookie Casey Washington as the “Oh my God, the world is ending right now!” option.
London leads the team with 31 targets, followed by Mooney (24) and McCloud (22).
Expect there to be more short passes tonight, with the Tampa defense looking like one of the top units this season. McCloud is a steal on DraftKings ($3,400), coming in at less than half of Mooney’s $7,200 cap hit. FanDuel is giving McCloud only a $500 discount by comparison, which is, of course, dramatically influencing the projected popularity for this duo between the main DFS sites.
Tight End | Buccaneers-Falcons NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 5
Farewell Sweet Prince, it was a glorious attempt at fantasy redemption, but it is all for naught. Kyle Pitts had his Best Ball and season-long supporters thrilled after the opener, where he set personal bests for routes run, along with a heavy participation rate. Though he only had three targets, he did convert them all for 26 yards and a touchdown. That had hearts aflutter with visions of grandeur, considering that matchup was a rock fight against Pittsburgh.
Sadly, things have fallen off a cliff since then, culminating in just three targets last Sunday for zero receptions. Pitts also saw his snap share fall from 96%, to 74%, to 69% and then 68% last week. This, of course, correlates with the increased participation for McCloud, who has taken over a lot of the short-range work.
Backup Charlie Woerner has not gotten a look from Cousins since two targets in Week 1. Atlanta, despite the new offense and coaching staff, has not been particularly prolific. There have been just 17 total targets to the tight ends, with the baseline looking like three to four per game for Pitts.
The downward trend for Pitts is not new; since his rookie season, he has had more than 60 receiving yards only three times, with just one of those outings occurring last year. Even more damning, he has had more than four receptions only four times since his rookie year, and three of those games resulted in five catches.
Kicker | Buccaneers-Falcons NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 5
Younghoe Koo is dialed in with a perfect season through four games. He has converted on six point after touchdown attempts and, most importantly, all three of his field goal attempts from 50-plus yards. This game is, of course, outside, but we should roster Koo with confidence.
Defense | Buccaneers-Falcons NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 5
Atlanta has four sacks on the season, accompanied by three interceptions and a fumble. Last week the defense had a pick-six, with the punt coverage team also getting on the board with a touchdown after Rashid Shaheed did not call for a fair catch on his own 2-yard line then had the ball bounce off his shoulder pad anyway, being recovered by Hodge.
Tampa Bay has ceded 15 sacks, so there could be some opportunity there, but the team has done a great job of limiting turnovers over the last two seasons. Last year it had the sixth-fewest giveaways with 10 interceptions and eight fumbles lost, and the Bucs have two and one in those categories thus far on the season.
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Buccaneers-Falcons NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 5: Baker Mayfield
Baker Mayfield
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,800
FanDuel: $16,000
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 16.39
FanDuel: 16.31
Boy, how things have changed for Baker Mayfield. More and more it looks like the dysfunctional Cleveland organization that selected Mayfield first overall in the 2018 NFL Draft perhaps laid too much blame at the feet of its chosen one. After stops in Carolina and Los Angeles in 2022, the field general showed enough to be tabbed as the Tom Brady replacement.
Mayfield certainly did not disappoint, making his first Pro Bowl team while also lifting Tampa to two playoff games, tossing six touchdowns and just two interceptions in those outings. Though 246 passing yards per game is not sexy, it is 8 more than he averaged last year and in the top 10 for the season in an evolving environment with a myriad of new defensive looks, all designed to take away any downfield threats.
While he should not be considered a rushing threat after averaging just under 10 yards per game last year, it needs to be noted that Mayfield does have two touchdowns on the ground and the running back room is looking shaky.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Positional Preview
Running Back | Buccaneers-Falcons NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 5
Rachaad White has struggled as a ball-carrier, falling to a pitiful 2.8 yards per carry this year after barely averaging 3.6 yards through his first two NFL campaigns. While he is still a strong pass-catcher, 16 targets for 14 catches, 133 yards and no touchdowns is not going to get it done.
Through the first three games, White was on the field for just over 70% of the action, with rookie Bucky Irving getting the majority of the remaining opportunities. That shifted last week, turning into a 60%/40% split, which is likely to be the new baseline going forward.
Irving is capable in all facets of the game, as demonstrated during his 27 games at Oregon, where he had nearly 3,000 yards from scrimmage in two seasons, along with 21 touchdowns. Irving has averaged 5.8 yards on 35 carries, and while that is a small sample size, he does have two carries for 30-plus yards, whereas White has three such runs in his career. The sites are ready, with Irving only seeing a $400 discount on DraftKings and $500 savings on FanDuel.
Wide Receiver | Buccaneers-Falcons NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 5
Load up on Chris Godwin and Mike Evans! Of course, that is nothing new when the Buccaneers are being featured in primetime. Tonight the team will be without rookie Jalen McMillan (hamstring) for a second consecutive game, and Trey Palmer is out with a concussion. That leaves — checking notes — Sterling Shepard as the likely WR3, with undrafted rookie Kameron Johnson from Barton serving as the understudy.
Sheppard saw action on 50 of 77 (65%) plays last week, and Palmer was only on the field for 14. That opened the door for Johnson to step in for 25 snaps. Sheppard had five targets, and Johnson got one. These also were their first looks this season.
Looping back to Godwin and Evans, the former has been working out of the slot a la Cooper Kupp, getting 34 targets so far, with Evans doing his usual thing, bringing in 18 of his 29 opportunities for 214 yards and three touchdowns. Evans is going for his 11th straight season of 1,000 receiving yards, and he is just three aerial scores away from 100 for his career.
Tight End | Buccaneers-Falcons NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 5
Play Cade Otton — that is pretty much the analysis. He has 21 of the 22 tight end targets, with eight and nine in the last two games. He has the familiarity with Mayfield, plus with McMillan and Palmer out, there are plenty of short-field opportunities up for grabs (pun intended).
Full disclosure, Payne Durham will be on the field for around 15 snaps, though the second-year player out of Purdue has one target this season and eight for his career. Ko Kieft has been on the field in every game but for only seven offensive plays.
Kicker | Buccaneers-Falcons NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 5
Chase McLaughlin has converted all seven of his field goal attempts this season, including three from 50-plus yards. Last year he had a personal-best 93.5% success rate, making seven of eight (87.5%) from beyond 50 yards. Still, for his career he has been around average with an 83.7% conversion rate, having played for seven different franchises in his six seasons. Tonight will be the 69th game he has participated in.
Defense | Buccaneers-Falcons NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 5
The Falcons have averaged one interception per game this year and lost two fumbles. On the other side, the Buccaneers have a pair of picks while recovering three fumbles. The Pewter Pirates are averaging two sacks per game after recording closer to three per tilt last year. Cousins has been sacked four times, which is helped by the team continuing to use a fair amount of pistol and shotgun formations.
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Here is how the Single-Lineup Simulator is evaluating a Buccaneers-Falcons lineup for Week 5 TNF based on some of the picks offered here. If you like what you see, sign up for a Lite, Core or Max NFL package and start seeing how your lineup ROI stacks up!
Buccaneers-Falcons NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 5: Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Buccaneers-Falcons
- Bijan Robinson: Trusting that his hamstring is reasonably OK, plus when do coaches ever obfuscate the truth about injury severity?
- Chris Godwin: Gets the slight edge over his quarterback; it is more noticeable on DraftKings in the full-PPR format.
- Baker Mayfield: Has the best median fantasy projection after Robinson but needs to get there through the air, making the floor a little tenuous and the upside harder to attain.
- Ray-Ray McCloud III: Drop him below the kickers on FanDuel.
- Mike Evans: So consistently good.
- Drake London: Potential Captain/MVP in tournaments for those making 10-plus lineups.
- Cade Otton: Should be active in the short game, only three red zone opportunities for the season.
- Younghoe Koo: \YOUNG-way COO\ say it with #Respect.
- Darnell Mooney: Terrific direct leverage off of McCloud on DraftKings, though both can be played on the same roster.
- Kirk Cousins: Zero rushing upside; only one multi-touchdown game so far.
Secondary Options
- Chase McLaughlin: Almost beat out Cousins.
- Bucky Irving: Move ahead of Cousins in the unlikely event he is tabbed as the starter.
- Sterling Sheppard: $1,600 on DraftKings; another five-target game would be amazing.
- Kyle Pitts: Given the recent downward trends, hitting five targets again would be incredible.
- Tyler Allgeier: Working into a nice rotational role; fair salary across the DFS sites.
Lottery Tickets
- Kameron Johnson: $200 minimum on DraftKings; unlocks some righteous combinations.
- Tampa Bay D/ST: Gets the homefield edge.
- Atlanta D/ST: Basically a coinflip with their counterparts.
- KhaDarel Hodge: Also $200 on DraftKings; all it takes is one fluky special teams play or lucking into his first target and catch of the season.
- Sean Tucker: A couple of touches are a strong possibility; anything more needs a benching of White.
- Charlie Woerner and Payne Durham: Backup tight ends looking for that single-slate magic. Both will at least be on the field for offensive plays.
- Cody Thompson: Behind Johnson but could be active and is also at the DraftKings minimum.
- Avery Williams, Ross Dwelley, Casey Washington and Ko Kieft: Should be active; getting offensive snaps may be a challenge.
- Michael Penix Jr.: SEEEEEEeeeiiiiiiige! So crazy, it just might work.
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