Broncos-Saints DFS Picks: Week 7 Thursday Night Football NFL DFS

Thursday Night Football has a 37.0 projected total with the Denver Broncos (-2.5) heading into the Big Easy to face the New Orleans Saints. This total and close projected outcome add to the strategy and decision points across the NFL DFS world. In this week’s NFL DFS picks breakdown, we’re taking a deep dive into the Broncos-Saints Thursday Night Football clash for Week 7, highlighting key NFL DFS ownership projections and player projections for DraftKings and FanDuel to help you build winning lineups.

Broncos-Saints DFS Picks: Thursday Night Football Week 7 NFL DFS

Stokastic is introducing the all-new Single-Lineup Simulator as part of this year’s NFL DFS packages! Check out our Single-Lineup Simulator guide and discover how this game-changing tool can help you hand-build and assess individual lineups to boost your ROI.

Here is how the Single-Lineup Simulator is evaluating a Broncos-Saints Week 7 TNF DraftKings lineup based on some of the picks touted here. If you like what you see, sign up for a Lite, Core or Max NFL package and start seeing how your lineup ROI compares!

Broncos-Saints DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 7: Bo Nix

These are all promising developments, and for fantasy purposes, having 61 rushing yards or a touchdown in four of six games, well, that is the cherry on top. New Orleans has ceded aerial scores to only two opposing quarterbacks, with Dak Prescott getting one in Week 2 and then Baker Mayfield collecting four last Sunday. In addition to this duo, Jalen Hurts (311) and Patrick Mahomes (331) at least ended up with significant yardage, even though there were no passing touchdowns.

Linebackers Pete Werner and Nephi Sewell are out for the Saints, and the defensive line depth is lacking with Tanoh Kpassagnon and Camron Peterson out. Defensive backs Will Harris and Rejzohn Wright are out as well.

Nix has the best median fantasy projection for the Broncos, ranking second overall for the entire player pool.

Denver Broncos Positional Preview

Running Back | Broncos-Saints NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 7

New Orleans fell apart last weekend, allowing Sean Tucker to run for 136 yards on 14 carries, with rookie Bucky Irving getting 81 on his 14 totes. They each found the end zone as Tucker got a second score and 56 receiving yards on three targets, while Irving brought in both of his looks for two dozen yards.

This was not the first sign of trouble for the Saints against the run, with Saquon Barkley getting them for 147 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 17 carries in Week 3 and Kareem Hunt putting up 102 yards and a score on 27 carries in Week 5.

Typically this would bode well for the opposing team, and while it does look like a source of fantasy goodness, the Denver running back roles are cloudy. Plus Nix is getting a significant portion of the pie.

Conventional thought had Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin looking like the likely lead duo heading into training camp, with veteran Samaje Perine providing depth. Denver also drafted Audric Estime in the fifth round, and the Notre Dame ball carrier had several strong moments in the preseason.

This allowed the Broncos to release Perine in the final cutdown, but it did not provide the expected stability. Estime got hurt in the opener and landed on the injured reserve. In his absence, neither Williams or McLaughlin took control of the backfield, and second-year man Tyler Badie even had some dynamic plays in Week 3, collecting 70 yards on nine low-leverage carries before being lost to injury in the next game.

McLaughlin has had more than 25 combined yards twice on the year, and he has one rushing and one receiving touchdown. Williams did not reach 25 rushing yards until posting 16 carries for 77 yards in Week 4 and 13 for 61 in Week 5, falling back to just 23 yards on half a dozen carries in Week 6.

Estime got the ball on both of his snaps last week, totaling 14 yards. Normally that would not be particularly notable, except that coach Sean Payton has said he now wants to shake up the backfield. It is hard to know what will happen on a short week, but this is a tenuous situation at best.

Conventional wisdom would have Williams as the main early-down back, but do not lose sight of him being a decent receiver. McLaughlin is the change-of-pace player who has the edge as a pass-catcher, with Estime being the wild card and punt du jour on both DraftKings ($400) and FanDuel ($5,500). It is worth noting that the former Golden Domer had nearly 2,300 rushing yards (6.2 yards per carry) and 29 touchdowns in his final two seasons, though his 26 receptions, 277 yards (10.7 yards per carry) and one touchdown through the air were relatively pedestrian.

Wide Receiver | Broncos-Saints NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 7

The Stokastic NFL stat projections have Courtland Sutton earmarked for a 24.3% target share, 6.91 targets, 4.01 receptions, 52.3 yards and a 30% probability of reaching paydirt. Things are a little murky after that, with veteran Josh Reynolds now on the injured reserve and the rest of the Denver wideouts in flux.

Lil’Jordan Humphrey has only started one game, and that was back in Week 2. Of course, this is a “Remember Me?!” game for both him and Payton, so who knows what foolishness will be afoot?

Marvin Mims Jr. started in the opener, but he has been outplayed by this year’s version of himself, Devaughn Vele, who got his first start last week. Of course, he went from converting all eight of his Week 1 targets for 39 yards then was inactive until last Sunday.

Rookie and former Oregon teammate of Nix Troy Franklin has started each of the last three games, though his nine targets, five receptions, 49 yards and a score are not overly exciting. Reynolds is going to miss time after undergoing surgery on his injured finger, but he is vacating only four targets per game in this low-volume offense.

Tight End | Broncos-Saints NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 7

Greg Dulcich started Weeks 1, 3 and 5, seeing four looks with a pair of catches and 12 yards. In Week 2, he had a whopping eight targets, though that resulted in only three receptions and 16 yards. The late-round Best Ball lottery ticket has been inactive each of the last two weeks.

Lucas Krull was inactive for the first month, but he has been on the game day roster instead of Dulcich for the last fortnight. This has led to five targets for three receptions and 16 yards — not great but also not invisible. Be sure to confirm which of this not-so-dynamic duo is active tonight.

Former Saint Adam Trautman is the “starter,” and of course, with the narrative on his side, he will have imaginary fantasy points already assigned to him by the field. Despite leading this position in snaps, Trautman has only three targets this year, each coming in an odd-numbered week. That leaves Nate Adkins as the last player to mention, and he has had one target in each of the last five games.

Because there are so many missing Saints, value is not really needed from Denver, though the popularity discount is real — and warranted for this collection of ne’er do wells.

Kicker | Broncos-Saints NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 7

Wil Lutz spent the first six seasons of his career in New Orleans, so he should be comfortable with the conditions in the Superdome. The now-30-year-old was never known for extreme distance, though he did make 4 of 6 from beyond 50 yards in his last season as a Saint. In his last 23 games, he is 4-for-7 from long range, giving him a 61.5% conversion rate from 50-plus yards over the last two seasons and change.

Defense | Broncos-Saints NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 7

The Denver defense has been racking up the sacks with 22 on the season, trailing only the New York Giants (26). The Broncos are in the middle of the herd with eight takeaways, while the Saints have ceded nine turnovers.

New Orleans is down two offensive linemen, likely the top two pass catchers and, of course, this is going to be just the second career game for Spencer Rattler. The fifth-round selection out of South Carolina suffered five sacks against Tampa Bay, which is the same number that Derek Carr allowed in his five combined starts.

Ready to dominate your lineups using Stokastic’s cutting-edge NFL DFS Sims? Explore our comprehensive guide to the NFL Sims Tool and learn how to maximize your Sims subscription for the 2024 season!

Broncos-Saints NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 7: Alvin Kamara

Yes, not every offensive lineman who is out was a starter, but there is little depth, and considering every key skill position player is also out, this offense has an uphill battle against Denver. Coach Sean Payton and the Broncos will be keying in on Kamara, though his volume still has him with the best median fantasy projection. Of course, after going through the Broncos options above, only Nix and Sutton are really close to Kamara. Happy Thursday Night Football!

Fullback Adam Prentice has played in 37 games over three-plus seasons and has a grand total of six carries and seven targets. Second-year UDFA Jordan Mims had 16 of his 25 offensive snaps last week in the drubbing by the Buccaneers. Veteran Jamaal Williams went from 22 plays in the opener to just three last week, continuing a season-long slide, and Kendre Miller is available, though he was not active last week, despite returning from the injured reserve.

Someone besides Kamara is going to get touches, and typically these would go to Hill, who is likely to be out tonight. It would make sense if Williams were given the first chance, but that is a guess at best. This is a short week, Kamara already has assumed a major workload and he is 29 years old in his eighth season. Anything over 20 touches would be pretty irresponsible, though in a close and winnable game at home, who knows what will actually transpire between the lines?

The hope would be most of Kamara’s opportunities coming via the pass after seeing eight targets from Rattler on Sunday. Slamming him into the line against a loaded box of waiting defenders does not seem prudent, but hey, the likes of Shane Waldron, Luke Getsy, Alex Van Pelt, Brad Idzik and, of course, the Saints’ own Klint Kubiak keep getting jobs as offensive architects.

Earmark 8 to 10 opportunities for Williams, with Mims around a half dozen and Miller a wild card who could steal from the other backups.

New Orleans Saints Positional Preview

Quarterback | Broncos-Saints NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 7

Rattler crushed at Oklahoma in 2020, leading the Sooners to a 9-2 record and a Cotton Bowl victory. 2021 saw him lose his job to Caleb Williams, leading Rattler to transfer to South Carolina for his final two years. This earned him a fifth-round look from New Orleans in April, though there were no plans for him to be anything more than a backup this season.

Of course, the NFL is a brutal league, so we should not be surprised that the 24-year-old has been pressed into duty. He at least had plenty of meaningful college games, but it is hard to expect much in just his second NFL appearance, coming four days after his debut. Expect a few scrambles and around 20 or so completions for 200-ish yards and a touchdown. That is lower than his actual results on Sunday, but this is a tougher row to hoe with all of the additional injuries.

Wide Receiver | Broncos-Saints NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 7

Bub Means, Mason Tipton and Cedrick Wilson Jr. have combined for 24 targets, 14 receptions, 116 yards and a touchdown. That is about half of the production of Olave by himself, including only seeing the field on three snaps in Week 6.

Means had eight targets, Wilson three and Tipton two — while Shaheed had seven and Olave one. Wilson (ankle) is questionable, so that leaves the rookies as the featured options. Means with a fifth-round pick out of Pittsburgh, with Tipton being a UDFA from Yale. There will be at least two players called up from the practice squad, so tune into the Stokastic NFL Live Before Lock show at 7:30 p.m. ET to find out the latest roster adjustments for Thursday Night Football.

Tight End | Broncos-Saints NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 7

Hill is likely to miss a third consecutive week, leaving Dallin Holker as the deep backup option. Juwan Johnson was dealing with a foot injury for most of the offseason and training camp, which slowed down his participation in the first month of the season. He has been on the field for at least 77% of the snaps over the last two games, and that has in turn pushed Foster Moreau into the 50% range. The offensive line woes and lack of wideouts are likely to lead to more two-tight end sets. It is not too late to skip tonight’s game and instead score some bonus points by taking your significant other out for dinner.

Kicker | Broncos-Saints NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 7

Blake Grupe has been perfect on his 10 field goal attempts, with two from 50-plus yards, including a career-high 57-yarder. He has missed on two of his 19 point after touchdown attempts after nailing all 40 last year. The kid definitely has a leg, and in his 11 home games, he has been stellar with an 87.5% conversion rate on 24 field goal opportunities.

Defense | Broncos-Saints NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 7

Even with a rookie quarterback and a languishing running game, Denver has allowed a reasonable nine turnovers. Yes, this is in the bottom third of the league, but given the variables, it isn’t insurmountable. Nix has been sacked nine times and thrown five interceptions, while the Saints have collected 15 sacks (2.5 per game) and 12 takeaways, which are the fourth most this season.

Broncos-Saints NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 7: Rankings

Stokastic equips you with all the tools to dominate NFL DFS, no matter the slate, format or platform. If you haven’t yet, sign up for a Stokastic+ NFL package for great tools like the NFL DFS Sims and Lineup Generator, and crucial data like NFL DFS projections, ownership projections, and NFL Top Stacks!

Now let’s jump into the final rankings for this Broncos-Saints MNF slate.

Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Broncos-Saints

1. Alvin Kamara: Should be the most popular player across the DFS sites.
2. Bo Nix: Even if New Orleans were fully healthy, Nix still would be a top-5 option in the player pool.
3. Spencer Rattler: One of two starting quarterbacks on the slate.
4. Cortland Sutton: Most talented of the Denver wideouts, though overall passing game volume has been limited this season.
5. Javonte Williams: Gets the first crack at the early-down work.
6. Wil Lutz: On the better offense and comfortable in this kicking environment as a former Saint.
7. Blake Grupe: Three field goals could put him in the optimal lineup, which is wildly exciting and sad at the same time.
8. Bub Means: This doesn’t feel good.
9. Denver D/ST: Could be in the optimal lineup tonight without scoring a touchdown.
10. Devaughn Vele: Wow, just wow.

Secondary Options

1. Juwan Johnson: You wanna do something else tonight?
2. Jamaal Williams: Veteran moxie counts for something in this chaotic contest. Main kickoff return man with Shaheed out.
3. Jaleel McLaughlin: Meh, but we need a minimum of three lines for this section to be visually appealing.

Lottery Tickets

1. New Orleans D/ST: The days of the Dome Patrol are long gone, but facing a rookie quarterback is still a bonus, even for a lineup loaded with understudies.
2. Mason Tipton: Once of three active NFL players from Yale. Could see action for punt and kick returns with Shaheed out.
3. Foster Moreau: Should be on the field for around half the snaps.
4. Troy Franklin: Familiarity with Nix has not done much for him so far.
5. Cedrick Wilson Jr. and Equanimeous St. Brown: Check active status for both. St. Brown is likely to get called up from the practice squad. Former University of Washington stalwart Dante Pettis was also signed to the practice squad this week, though it would be a surprise for him to suit up tonight. Wilson could return punts for New Orleans with Shaheed out.
6. Lucas Krull and Adam Trautman: Either scoring would be the culmination of a Sean Payton fever dream.
7. Audric Estime: Best path to production is in mop-up duty, though he could luck into a touchdown at some point in the first three quarters.
8. Marvin Mims Jr.: It is official — the coaching staff really does hate him. Main punt returner, shares kickoff duties with defensive back Tremon Smith.
9. Kendre Miller: In play but needs three things to go his way at a minimum.
10. Lil’Jordan Humphry: Keep tabs on his anytime touchdown odds when those are posted.
11. Nate Adkins, Dallin Holker, Jordan Mims, Adam Prentice, Michael Burton, Greg Dulcich: The rest.

Stokastic’s NFL DFS Tools & Expert Advice

Looking for more NFL DFS tips? We’ve got you covered with expert NFL articles packed with winning strategies! Even the pros need an edge, and that’s where a Stokastic subscription comes in. Gain access to the same tools our experts use, like the Sims Tool that helped our friend TheRealCoach111 secure TWO MILLY MAKER wins in just two weeks!

His wins came in MLB, but we’ve had NFL Milly Maker champs too — just ask Stokastic Sims co-developer Steve Buzzard, who took down last year’s Conference Championship Weekend.

And don’t forget to check out our Hall of Fame Avatar program and see what you can win by using the Sims to rise to the top of DraftKings or FanDuel NFL DFS contests!