For those new to the Royal Troon experience, let us begin with a rather simple yet concise proclamation: This is not St. Andrews. Golf’s last official major returns for the first time in eight years to a uniquely brutal golf course that becomes exponentially difficult with wind. Yes, there’s wind in the forecast. Welcome to the British Open Championship, done entirely different than the norm at St. Andrews and other links courses. Beyond the demand of the course through these conditions is the large field of incredible golfers, representing the PGA, LIV and DP World Tours.
Winning the first round or the tournament doesn’t change our approach; it’s more about finding someone who can survive the final six holes — all into the wind. It’s a typical course of length coming in at par 71, but it holds one true area of difficulty across the majority of the holes. We will take some more time into how best to attack Royal Troon, but the quick answer is second shots. We just saw a calm and collected Renaissance Club at the Scottish Open, so it’s difficult to take much carryover from last week. The field is even larger than before, and we still have a collective effort to chase down Scottie Scheffler.
Measuring 7,385 yards, Royal Troon will test distance off the tee, accuracy and how tightly golfers can hit their approach shots. We always have putting in our approach, but the issue of getting there simply appears more important this week. Let’s look at some of the best ways around the defenses of this course by giving out the top two first round leaders of the week!
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British Open Championship First Round Leader Picks
The Keys To The Kingdom
Golfers can miss off the tee at St. Andrews. At Royal Troon, they can’t. The penalties for missing the fairway at Royal Troon are near polar opposite when the wind is factored in. The conditions of the course — namely how firm it is — dictate a lot on approaching tee shots. If it’s dry and firm, most golfers can get away without their driver gaining similar distance with far more accuracy. The rain always reverses that process, so depending on how wet the course has been, we may see more long sticks.
This is a second-shot course more than anything. We’ve seen this movie before, both the last time the British Open was here or even similar at Pinehurst No. 2. Golfers are charged with landing approach shots 150 to 200 yards out directly on a small landing space. Putting is another story, but getting there might be more difficult. Gaining strokes on approach in difficult conditions is about ideal as it gets. Add in scrambling and strokes gained around the green, and we find a golfer who can escape without damage if he does miss that small spot.
The greens might be slower based on the precipitation, so finding someone who can handle the slower speed is also ideal. We want the accuracy to hit some of the smallest and unforgiving greens we will see on the golf schedule. That level of accuracy combined with knocking down 10- to 12-foot putts can help mitigate both the current wind and recent rain.
British Open Championship First-Round Leader Picks
British Open Championship First Round Leader Picks: Tyrrell Hatton (+4000 at DraftKings)
Remember, just like an outright at these similar odds, we only need to hit one on the year and we’re set. We’ve had a good stretch recently in the OddsShopper Discord and hit our top-10 first-round ticket on Byeong Hun An from last week’s column. This week we focus on Tyrrell Hatton with hopes his true putting form has returned. We saw a glimpse of how good things can get for Hatton at the US Open, but his putter fell apart, as did his hopes of winning. With some expected positive regression on a firm and familiar course, Hatton comes in at a strong 40-1 with 28-1 outright odds.
Hatton fits perfectly at Royal Troon, as we saw eight years ago. In his lone appearance here for the Open, Hatton turned in a top-5 with some impressive handling of the conditions and course. Familiarity is huge here as we lean on a golfer who already battled through that last six-hole stretch of pain. Hatton knows how to not only get on the green but also stay there. Despite the issues putting, Hatton still finished 26th at Pinehurst. We love him this week to lead after one and to be in the top 10 for the first round.
British Open Championship First Round Leader Picks: Aaron Rai (+7000 at DraftKings)
At some point Aaron Rai is going to miss a putt … right? He’s been wielding a flamethrower throughout his last handful of events, including a fourth last week at the Scottish Open. Rai is playing insane golf, from tee shot to putting. He’s doing it mostly through his iron play, which should absolutely continue through this week. Rai hasn’t finished top 20 or worse in each of his last five events, something that is fueled by his approach through green play. He’s been as consistent as anyone, including Collin Morikawa and even Scheffler.
We get him at 70-1 in a huge field and new territory. Unlike Hatton, who’s already been successful here, Rai shares the same fresh approach to this course as the majority of the field. He’s simply better equipped to handle it than others, especially with how well he’s been playing. Rai will face the final six-hole stretch against the wind and will rely heavily on his irons to battle through. Getting there will require that putter to just keep on rolling — keep being elite.
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