Our PGA DFS Top Plays series continues with our 2024 BMW Championship PGA DFS top plays and picks, which includes a look at Tommy Fleetwood, among others.
The FedEx Cup playoffs head to Colorado this week for the second of a three-event stretch that will determine the FedEx Cup Champion for the 2024 season. This week, the top 50 players in the FedEx Cup standings will compete in another no-cut style event, vying for the top 30 spots in the FedEx Cup standings that will punch their ticket to East Lake for the Tour Championship next week.
2024 BMW Championship PGA DFS Top Plays
BMW Championship DFS Course & Tournament Preview
Castle Pines Golf Club plays host this week. In stark contrast to last week where we had a ton of course history data to draw from, we have no course data this week. Castle Pines has held PGA Tour events in the past, but it was before the days of ShotLink, so we’ll have to do some old-school course scouting.
The official length of the course is a jaw-dropping 8,130 yards, making it the longest course in PGA Tour history. However, the course is located over a mile above sea level, so the true yardage will play much shorter than that. The adjustments these players will have to make to account for the thin Rocky Mountain air will be a very interesting challenge to watch play out and adds an extra wrinkle we don’t usually encounter at this scale.
In addition to the elevation adjustments, players will be faced with a very difficult golf course. The flyover of the course reveals thin fairways, doglegs in each direction, and a total of 10 different holes where water hazards come into play. Reports of thick four-inch rough and lightning-fast greens will present quite the challenge for the best players in the world.
Based on these findings, I’ll be prioritizing accuracy off the tee and elite approach play. While distance certainly will help given the lengthy setup, I don’t believe this course will favor a bomb-and-gouge style attack, given the trouble that lurks off of missed fairways.
As always, I’ve used the Stokastic PGA DFS Sims tool to identify four players that I’ll be building my lineup portfolio around this week.
Our hole-by-hole simulation technology allows me to take every golfer in the field’s range of outcomes into consideration, along with what I project the competition’s lineups to look like. By simulating the lineups against each other tens of thousands of times, the best plays on the slate reveal themselves. The players that appear most in the highest ROI lineups are the ones I want to build my portfolio around.
Our PGA DFS Sims tool is the core of my weekly DFS process and is something I highly recommend for those looking to take the next step in DFS. Without further ado, below are the players I’ll be building around as my top plays for The FedEx St. Jude Championship.
2024 BMW Championship DFS Top Plays
Xander Schauffele – $11,100
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. If you’ve been following along with this article all season, you know that Xander has been money for us in 2024. At this point, it almost feels irresponsible for me not to include him. The consistency that he has played with this season gives me no reason to hop off the train. With another runner-up finish last week, that makes 13 top-10 finishes in 18 total starts. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks top 10 in strokes gained approach, bogey avoidance and birdie or better percentage. His game is built for the toughest golf courses, given his consistency across the entire bag. I love how he sets up for Castle Pines.
Tommy Fleetwood – $9,600
Fleetwood has been chalking up some fantastic ball-striking numbers over the last couple of months. The signs are there that a breakthrough is on the horizon, and I think we see it this week. Over the last 24 tracked rounds, he ranks top 10 in this field in strokes gained off the tee, strokes gained approach, bogey avoidance and fairways gained. In his current form, his tee-to-green game is elite.
Unfortunately, a cold putter has robbed him of some strong nice finishes lately. In fact, last week he lost eight strokes to the field from putting, which was his worst statistical putting performance of his entire career. Despite the dreadful putting display, he still finished 22nd, pointing to just how good his ball striking was.
Throughout his career, he’s averaged about half of a stroke gained putting per tournament he’s played in. There will be some regression to the mean in that department this week, and his ball striking will handle the rest.
Austin Eckroat – $6,300
Given my desire to have heavy exposure to golfers priced near the top this week, we need to find some cheaper options to round out our rosters. Eckroat is my favorite-salary saver option this week as he is priced near the bottom of the board at $6,300.
As a relatively newer player on Tour, Eckroat has flashed his ball-striking ability with relative consistency. Amongst this elite field, he ranks top 20 in strokes gained approach, strokes gained off the tee and fairways gained over the last 24 rounds.
His game has been coming on of late as well, with an impressive sixth-place finish at Wyndham two weeks ago and an 18th-place finish last week in Memphis. Averaging 300 yards off the tee and hitting over 67% of his fairways on the season, he should fit nicely for the demands of Castle Pines. He’ll be rounding out a lot of my rosters this week.
GPP Flier
Will Zalatoris – $6,800
This season has been one to forget for Zalatoris, who has struggled to return to form following a back injury that kept him out of the majority of last season. With only three top-10 finishes across 18 starts in the 2024 season, he finds himself priced in unfamiliar territory down at $6,800 this week. Many will view this price as an indictment of the state of his game, but I view it as a unique opportunity.
A 12th-place finish at St. Jude last week should provide him with some much-needed confidence heading into this week. He did so while gaining strokes in every statistical strokes gained category, which was the first time he accomplished that since February.
While you may have to squint a bit, there are some signs that his game may be turning around at just the right time. Currently sitting 37th in the FedEx Cup standings, he will need a nice finish this week to get himself into the Tour Championship. I’d rather be early than late on the Zalatoris resurgence, especially at this price.
These are a few of the key players who will make up my player pool for my 2024 BMW Championship DFS lineups. I’ll favor them significantly when I build lineups using the PGA DFS Sims tool. In addition, don’t forget to take advantage of the odds boosts sportsbooks are offering.
