We went from a staple event at the FedEx St. Jude to the BMW Championship bringing in a brand-new course. Welcome to the FedEx Playoffs where anything can happen, including nearly blowing a massive Sunday lead. Not everyone is thrilled with the setup or execution of the format they get there. The PGA is down to the top 50 players on tour and still without a cut this week, so let’s see what the BMW Championship has in store for first-round leader bets.
Castle Pines in Colorado will host its first ever PGA event, and it’s a big one. The course measures as the longest ever played on tour, but much like a scene fresh out of Tiger Woods Golf — the ball will carry. It’s going to play more like a typical 7,200-yard course, rather than the monster number of 8,300-plus yards.
It’s Colorado and altitude is everything. With that said, we are back to looking at typical metrics for this course without a need to stress massive distance. Putting on the bent/poa is going to be key, as will both gaining strokes on approach shots and bogey avoidance.
There is no course history here, but seeing how golfers have played in high-altitude environments can be a correlation — such as Wyndham Clark and Collin Morikawa — a couple of Pac-12 (10) alums familiar with the Colorado air.
BMW Championship First Round Leader Picks
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The Keys To The Kingdom
The length will be a major focus on TV, specifically marveling at how long Castle Pines is versus how long it actually plays. Much like we’ve seen coming into these events, distance plays a secondary role, as everyone will benefit from the higher altitude. This isn’t a course favoring the bombers because it still requires a ton of accuracy off the tee. We won’t see driving distance as much as an emphasis on total driving — a combination of distance and accuracy.
With gaining on the approach being so vital — once again — second shot specialists are climbing to the top of the list for a first-round leader. That second shot comes with more precision off the tee since most of these holes will carry, including plenty of downhill shots. There is plenty of water to avoid and it’s going to be harder to score off drops in this top 50 field, so staying dry off the tee is clutch. There should be some comfort putting on the bent/poa grass.
The last thing to keep in mind is tailing golfers who are playing at their best. While Rory McIlroy is clearly one of the top talents in the world, he looked anything like it at the St. Jude. Targeting golfers who are playing well over their last four or five events will be another area of focus. The field only gets tougher, and it’s a brand-new course. This is not the time to bank on someone playing mediocre to rough golf simply because they have the talent to bounce back. Instead, let’s focus on some guys who are playing fantastic and consistent golf.
BMW Championship First-Round Leader Picks
BMW Championship First Round Leader Picks: Collin Morikawa (+2000 at FanDuel)
Here we go with another shot at Collin Morikawa to lead after one. There are a couple of nice fits here at Castle Pines, but Morikawa also has familiarity with the altitude. Looking at the rest of this 50-man field, he rises to the top in a few key areas. He’s also been hovering despite some tough Sundays, but ultimately Morikawa is playing great golf and does not have any massive concerns around his game. He’s one of the better golfers in the field, at least right now, something to note when looking at a potential early leader.
Morikawa is in the top tier for strokes gained tee to green. He isn’t losing strokes off the tee and is one of the sharpest iron players in the world on any tour, so it stands to reason that he would be dialed in with anything in his hand outside of a putter. He returns to the bent/poa where he has a shot to put together scoring holes with his accuracy off the approach. That is another area where few are gaining more strokes in this field off approach shots than Morikawa.
His main issues have come in the latter part of tournaments, and we get a solid 20-1 price on him to lead after one.
BMW Championship First Round Leader Picks: Davis Thompson (+4500 at BetRivers)
Following the same pattern as above, we get a solid break on the price with Davis Thompson as the honest candidate for a first-round lead. The good news is we don’t need any stump speech because Thompson’s game has done all the talking. Already a winner on tour this year, his odds sit at 45-1 within a stacked field of top golfers. He also fits the mold similar to Morikawa in some key areas for success.
Starting with strokes gained tee to green, Thompson is playing some of the best golf right now compared to the rest of the field. We like him on the bent/poa on top of being able to handle accuracy over distance. He’s done a fantastic job of balancing the two, as he’s one of the best golfers in the field in total driving. Thompson’s ability to take some off the driver while shaping or settling for better position will be the difference in an early round — especially as others are struggling with that balance.
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