Sunday Night Football has a 46.5 projected total, with Baltimore Ravens favored by nearly a field goal as they host the 3-0 Buffalo Bills. This total and close matchup add to the strategy and decision points across the NFL DFS world. In this installment of Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’re breaking down the Bills-Ravens matchup for Week 4 Sunday Night Football, analyzing NFL DFS ownership projections and player projections for DraftKings and FanDuel.
Bills-Ravens DFS Picks: Sunday Night Football Week 4 NFL DFS
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With full coverage of Sunday night’s Bills-Ravens Showdown, let’s dive into the top plays and strategies for this thrilling slate.
Bills-Ravens DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 4: James Cook
James Cook
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,600
FanDuel: $14,000
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 14.18
FanDuel: 12.69
Now that Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis are wearing different uniforms, head coach Sean McDermott has put more of an emphasis on the running game. Who is to argue, particularly with James Cook rising to the challenge and Buffalo rumbling to three consecutive victories.
Lopsided games have curbed Cook’s volume, though he does have three rushing scores in the last two games, with a strong 4.6 yards per carry on the season.
The 25-year-old also has nine targets, ranking third on the team, contributing eight receptions for 97 yards and a Week 2 touchdown. Journeyman Ty Johnson and rookie Ray Davis have been sharing the backup role. Johnson is in his sixth season and second with the Bills, having previously been with Detroit and the New York Jets. He has nearly 1,100 career rushing yards, with a 4.4 average and almost 800 receiving yards. Ultimately he is likely to give way to Davis, particularly in games with mop-up duty, but for tonight, they are carrying similar projections and salaries on the main DFS sites. Johnson had a touchdown reception and Davis ran one in, with the Bills waxing the Jacksonville Jaguars 47-10.
Fullback Reggie Gilliam should at least be on the field for half a dozen snaps, but it is important to keep in mind that his last target came in Week 2 last year. In 2022 he had 11 targets, but that was also before the addition of Dalton Kincaid.
Buffalo Bills Positional Preview
Quarterback | Bills-Ravens NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 4
Josh Allen currently has +200 odds to win the NFL MVP, with Patrick Mahomes (+325) also separating from the pack of C.J. Stroud, Jalen Hurts and Aaron Rodgers who are listed between +1300 and +1600, depending on your sports wagering site of choice. In the opener, Allen tossed two touchdowns and ran two more against Arizona. Then in Week 2, the game was in hand, plus Tua Tagovialoa was sidelined, so he did not need to do much, with Cook posting three scores. Last week, Allen threw for four scores, while adding 44 rushing yards on six carries.
The Ravens have yet to face a running quarterback (Mahomes, Gardner Minshew II, Dak Prescott), though the defense gets to see their own dual-threat signal-caller every day. Allen is willing to go to whomever is open, with five different players having seven or more targets. Last year Diggs (160) and Davis (81), combined for a 44% target share, leaving ample opportunities to go around to the various pass-catchers for Buffalo.
Wide Receiver | Bills-Ravens NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 4
Rookie Keon Coleman led receivers with a 73% snap share in Week 1, followed by being on the field for 91% of the offensive plays in Week 2. Then on Monday Night Football, the second-round selection out of Florida State was benched, due to being late to a mandatory team affair. Between that and the blowout, he was on the field for only 20 plays (31%). Expect him to return to something in the 80%-to-90% play participation tonight.
Khalil Shakir is the lone holdover at this position, with Coleman being joined by veterans Mack Hollins, Curtis Samuel and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Hollins leads this crew for playing time, though he has only five targets. Shakir leads the team with 14, though that is not an overwhelming figure.
Samuel was injured for a fair amount of the preseason, but the veteran has had at least two targets in each game thus far
Valdes=Scantling can of course score from deep, but he needs to 1) get targets and 2) actually convert on one of his scarce opportunities.
The Stokastic projections have him for 1.2 targets, 0.63 receptions and close to 10 yards. Keep in mind that despite playing four seasons in Green Bay with Rodgers and two more in Kansas City with Mahomes, the 29-year-old has only 16 touchdowns in 92 games.
Tight End | Bills-Ravens NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 4
Last year Dalton Kincaid was second on the team with 91 targets in his rookie campaign and this year he holds the same ranking, albeit with 11 through three games, which is lower than expected, but understandable when considering that Buffalo has not really been challenged outside of Week 1. Veteran Dawson Knox has two, zero and two targets through the first three games, while last year injuries and the arrival of Kincaid limited the six-year veteran to a career-low 10 games and 35 targets.
Knox had a nice red zone run with 15 touchdowns in his 30 games during the 2021 and 2022 seasons, but he is well down the pecking order these days, leaving him with lottery ticket status.
Kicker | Bills-Ravens NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 4
Tyler Bass is a decent kicker, though being outdoors in Buffalo during the latter portion of the season does impact his results. He has only 19 field goal attempts from beyond 50 yards in his 69 career games, converting on 12 (63%). Inside that range, he has an 88% success rate, while also racking up the PATs, courtesy of the Buffalo offense.
Defense | Bills-Ravens NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 4
Having a mobile quarterback tends to limit sacks and the run-heavy approach of the Ravens also limits turnovers. Anything can happen on any given Sunday, but unless there is a return touchdown, this unit is likely to be an afterthought. This is despite half a dozen takeaways and 11 sacks through three games.
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Bills-Ravens NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 4: Lamar Jackson
Lamar Jackson
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $10,800
FanDuel: $16,500
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 22.15
FanDuel: 21.96
Lamar Jackson is the reigning NFL MVP, having won the award for a second time last year. Though he did not lead the league in passing touchdowns like in 2019, the dual-threat pushed his squad to a 13-3 record, while also leading the league with 5.5 yards per carry.
Jackson only needed to pass 15 times against Dallas, but he also had 14 carries for 87 yards and a score. Through three games he is averaging 11.7 totes and nearly 85 rushing yards.
Similar to Baltimore, the Buffalo defense has not really seen a dual-threat quarterback, aside from Kyler Murray in Week 1, with Tagovailoa and Skylar Thompson under center in Week 2 and then Trevor Lawrence and Mac Jones leading the Jaguars dreadful debacle of an offense as part of the Monday Night Mayhem doubleheader.
Jackson has a slightly better median fantasy point projection over Allen, with a slim discount. It is hard to go wrong with either, though playing both does mean getting creative at a couple spots, leading to a top-heavy DFS roster.
Baltimore Ravens Positional Preview
Running Back | Bills-Ravens NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 4
Derrick Henry has 56 carries for 281 yards, while Justice Hill has the other 10 totes for the running back position, contributing 58 yards. Hill has a dozen targets so far, with 10 catches for another 83 yards. Henry has four targets, catching two for 35 yards, which is about in line with his career rates. The two-time NFL rushing leader also has four touchdowns, which is somewhat papering over that he has been on the field for only 104 of 208 offensive plays. That is the same as Hill, which is an indication that this is a shared backfield, heavily dependent on game-flow and situational needs.
Patrick Ricard has one target this year, after seeing only seven last season. The 300 lb, former defensive lineman is in his age-30 season, getting in most of his work as a “sixth offensive lineman” rather than as a fullback.
Wide Receiver | Bills-Ravens NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 4
Zay Flowers is clearly the WR1, earning 25 of the 86 targets (29%) doled out by Jackson. Do not let the 10, 11 and four target trend dissuade you from rolling with Flowers tonight. That trend is has a major aberration in Week 3, with the Dallas Cowboys folding like a flat 10-gallon hat. Buffalo has been solid against opposing receivers, with Christian Kirk (79 yards) becoming the first pass-catcher other than tight end Jonnu Smith (53 yards) to top 48 receiving yards.
Considering the Bills have not really been challenged by a competent/healthy passing game all season, this is a good time to be above the field on Flowers. This is Rashod Bateman’s fourth year with Baltimore, though injuries have limited him to only 36 games. Though three tilts, he has 13 targets, eight receptions and 121 yards, accompanied by one touchdown. Bateman has topped 59 yards only four times in his career, reaching the 100-yard plateau twice. He came into the season with four career touchdowns, though if he keeps up his elevated role, he could match that this year.
Nelson Agholor is the WR3 and he should be on the field for around half of the snaps, though with minimal offensive involvement. Tylan Wallace and Deonte “Remember Me?!” Harty round out this top-heavy position.
Tight End | Bills-Ravens NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 4
Isaiah Likely led the team with 12 targets in the opener, though he followed that up with three and one in the next two games. Mark Andrews was looking well below 100% in the first game, after being in an offseason car accident. He has seen two, five and one targets himself, but should be around 5-to-8 in most competitive games. There could be a bit of a hot hand approach, which is what it will take to have Likely consistently outperform Andrews, who is Jackson’s most trusted pass-catcher.
Charlie Kolar is the third tight-end and while he was a fourth-round selection in the 2022 NFL Draft, if he gets a target tonight, it will be only the 10th game in his career where that has happened. He did convert each of his looks in the last two games, so at $800 on DraftKings, he enters the mix for those crafting 20 or more lineups.
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Kicker | Bills-Ravens NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 4
Justin Tucker is arguably the best kicker in NFL history, owning a record 89.7% field goal conversion rate for his career, which includes and all-time record 66-yarder. This is his 13th season and while he has been named to a Pro Bowl or All-NFL team in each of the last eight seasons, there is competition from plenty of younger legs. Tucker has missed three of his eight attempts this season, which includes both from 50-plus yards, but he is still “The Man” until proven otherwise.
Defense | Bills-Ravens NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 4
The Ravens have 10 sacks this season, which works out to 3.3 per game and in line with last year’s pace, that saw this unit lead the league with 60 quarterback takedowns. Allen had the lowest sack rate last year and he is pacing for that title again, suffering only two on the season. He also has not thrown an interception yet, though he has averaged around one per game each of the last three seasons.
Last year Baltimore also led the league in takeaways, and points allowed, earning the triple crown. However, this unit has had a lot of personnel changes and is vastly different from preceding seasons.
Bills-Ravens NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 4: Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Bills-Ravens
- Josh Allen: Tonight will be the first real test for Buffalo.
- Lamar Jackson: Reigning NFL MVP, but the league moves fast and early returns have this being Allen’s year.
- James Cook: No salary reprieve, needs to find the end zone and rack up 100-plus combined yards, just to break even.
- Zay Flowers: Looking forward to seeing him with an extra workload.
- Khalil Shakir: Not a true WR1, but does lead his team.
- Dalton Kincaid: More of a giant receiver than a tight end.
- Justin Tucker: If he misses from 50-plus tonight, then it is time to be worried.
- Keon Coleman: Don’t let the game log blip fool you.
- Tyler Bass: Salary relief and as we saw on Thursday Night Football, even subpar kickers like Greg Joseph (5 for 5) can luck into big games out of nowhere.
- Derrick Henry: Same outlook at his Buffalo counterpart, except he cannot be counted on in the passing game.
Secondary Options
- Justice Hill: Easily could flip spots with Henry on DraftKings, with the full-PPR scoring format.
- Mark Andrews: Trust the veteran.
- Isaiah Likely: Actually could be the third best pass-catcher on the team.
Lottery Tickets
- Rashad Bateman: Top-heavy player pool, makes for a thin middle-class.
- Buffalo D/ST: Probably would have moved into the upper section if this was a home game.
- Baltimore D/ST: Weaker than in recent seasons, plus Allen limits sacks and turnovers.
- Ty Johnson and Ray Davis: Will be on the field, but really need something to befall Cook, with a lopsided game unlikely, there may not be much mop-up duty. In the mix for kickoff returns, along with defensive back Brandon Codrington, who is the main punt returner.
- Mack Hollins: Will be on the field a ton, it just takes one long play to strike gold.
- Nelson Agholor: Eight touchdowns in that magical 2020 season kept him in the league, he has nine in the 47 games since.
- Dawson Knox: Cheap, but appropriately valued considering how many are ahead of him in the pecking order.
- Curtis Samuel: Savvy veteran, will likely be higher on this list the next time Buffalo under the primetime lights.
- Marques Valdes-Scantling: Should get a target or two, receptions are another story.
- Deonte Harty, Charlie Kolar, Patrick Ricard and Tylan Wallace: This motley crew projects for 2.9 offensive touches. Harty is the main punt returner, sharing kickoff duties with reserve running back John Kelly.
- Chris Collier, Quintin Moss, John Kelly, Reggie Gilliam
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