Monday Night Football has a 40.5 projected total, with less than 2 points separating these two New York franchises as the Jets host the Bills in an AFC grudge match. This total and close projected outcome add to the strategy and decision points across the NFL DFS world. In this week’s NFL DFS picks breakdown, we’re taking a deep dive into the Bills-Jets Monday Night Football clash for Week 6, highlighting key NFL DFS ownership projections and player projections for DraftKings and FanDuel to help you build winning lineups.
Bills-Jets DFS Picks: Monday Night Football Week 6 NFL DFS
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Here is how the Single-Lineup Simulator is evaluating a Bills-Jets Week 6 MNF DraftKings lineup based on some of the picks touted here. If you like what you see, sign up for a Lite, Core or Max NFL package and start seeing how your lineup ROI compares!
Bills-Jets DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 6: Josh Allen
Josh Allen
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $11,000
FanDuel: $16,500
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 17.63
FanDuel: 17.46
Josh Allen has to feel like the last man standing with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis in new uniforms, while running back James Cook (toe) and leading receiver Khalil Shakir (ankle) were limited in practice all week.
Even if Cook and Shakir are active, the Jets have allowed just two aerial touchdowns this season and lead the league with just 136.6 passing yards allowed per game.
Defensive back Michael Carter II (back) is out, but that still leaves the dynamic duo of Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed. Allen is ahead of all his peers, boasting a 77.3 QBR, which is aided by eight passing scores and no interceptions. The 28-year-old is averaging only 189.1 passing yards per game, and that is the nadir outside of his rookie campaign in 2018.
The weight of the world is on Allen’s shoulders tonight, with a victory helping the Bills put a two-game lead on the Jets, while the 4-2 record would keep the team among the AFC elite. A loss would move New York into a tie with Buffalo atop the AFC East.
Buffalo Bills Positional Preview
Running Back | Bills-Jets NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 6
UPDATE: Cook is inactive. Looking at OddsShopper.com we can see that Ty Johnson has a 23.5 yard rushing prop, with Ray Davis at 49.5.
Expectations are that Cook will play tonight, though effectiveness and a tough matchup are keeping his fantasy prospects in check. The Stokastic NFL stat projections have Cook slated for 16.04 carries, 72.35 rushing yards, and 2.31 targets for 1.81 receptions and another 15.69 yards. Overall, he has close to a 50% probability of scoring a touchdown.
Cook has four rushing scores this season while adding a fifth through the air. New York is in the middle of the pack against the run, allowing only three opposing running backs to total 50-plus yards on the ground.
Rookie Ray Davis has seen limited action in his first five games, with snap counts of six, 14, 12, 10 and two. Journeyman Ty Johnson has nearly doubled Davis, though he has a 25% snap share or better twice this season, with the high of 34% coming last weekend in Houston as Buffalo was handed a second consecutive loss against a likely AFC playoff rival.
Davis has a $2,200 discount to Johnson on DraftKings, though that gap narrows to just $500 on FanDuel. The way things are trending, Johnson would appear to be the “safer” play, with Davis really only worthy of consideration in the event Cook is out. There could always be an in-game aggravation of Cook’s toe, though even then, it is hard to see Davis with more than half a dozen opportunities, likely losing out in the red zone to Allen and Johnson.
Fullback Reggie Gilliam is getting on the field for a handful of offensive plays each game, though he has not had an offensive opportunity in the last 20 games.
Wide Receiver | Bills-Jets NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 6
In Shakir’s absence last week, it was veteran Curtis Samuel who saw the biggest increase in playing time among the regulars. Undrafted rookie Tyrell Shavers stepped between the lines for the first time in his professional career, seeing 16 (25%) snaps but no targets.
Mack Hollins leads the wideouts with six targets, while Samuel saw four and rookie Keon Coleman five.
Whether or not Shakir plays, that is the preferred order for his trio of counterparts.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling is lurking, though he has just nine targets on the year, albeit with three coming last Sunday.
Even as the lead wideout with the most familiarity and playing time alongside Allen, Shakir has only 19 targets through four games. That is still enough to lead the position, which just reiterates how little volume and production the Buffalo passing attack has created this season.
Tight End | Bills-Jets NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 6
Dalton Kincaid leads the team with 24 targets, giving him a 19% target share. He has 13 looks over the last two games, which is one more than Hollins. Veteran Dawson Knox has five targets on the year, with only one in the last two games. He will still be on the field for around half of the offensive plays, though his red zone equity is all but dried up.
Quintin Morris will be on the field for a few snaps, but his last offensive opportunity came in Week 11 last year, when he saw two of his three targets on the season. In a fun twist, this was against the Jets.
Kicker | Bills-Jets NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 6
Tyler Bass was a sixth-round selection in the 2020 NFL Draft out of Georgia Southern. He led the Sun Belt Conference in made field goals his final two seasons. In his NFL career, he has been solid with an 84.6% success rate on field goals while converting on 97.4% of his point after touchdowns attempts. Distance is a little questionable, with the 27-year-old converting on 13 of 20 (65%) from beyond 50 yards for his career. It does not help being in the AFC East where all of his home and divisional games are outdoors and Miami is the only temperate location.
Defense | Bills-Jets NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 6
Buffalo has averaged just over three sacks per game in the two preceding seasons to this year. The Bills have slid just below that threshold this season, though that is not too shabby, considering the personnel and coaching turnover on that side of the ball. The Jets have ceded just 13 sacks this season.
Prior to the 2022 season, Mr. Discount Doublecheck led the league across four seasons, with the lowest interception rate each year while also being the all-time record-setter with a 1.4% career mark. New York has six turnovers through five games, and the Bills are among the league leaders with nine takeaways.
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Bills-Jets NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 6: Aaron Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,000
FanDuel: $13,000
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 13.88
FanDuel: 13.73
London was not kind to Aaron Rodgers as he threw a trio of interceptions, though the Jets recovered his fumble, which was a bonus.
Even with 54 attempts against Minnesota, Rodgers still only tallied 244 yards and two tuddies. After a slow start to the season that saw him tally 187 and 167 aerial yards, he has averaged 253.3 across the last three games.
Last week C.J. Stroud lit up the Bills for 331 yards; however, Trevor Lawrence has the next best effort, checking in with a paltry 178 yards on 38 attempts. Even with all of the personnel and coaching changes, Buffalo is somehow getting it done with smoke and mirrors. This game is going to be a rock fight, so this trend is likely to continue.
All New York really needs Rodgers to provide is a steady presence under center, with the elite defense and rushing game left to do the heavy lifting. That may not be exciting to see the four-time NFL MVP quarterback in this role, but as he marches towards his 41st birthday in December, it is what it is …
New York Jets Positional Preview
Running Back | Bills-Jets NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 6
The Jets have a tremendous one-two punch with Breece Hall and rookie Braelon Allen. Of course, this does make it harder for this duo to reach their apex fantasy potential, but it keeps both in play for the single-game slate.
Allen saw action on only nine snaps in his Week 1 debut, though since then the Wisconsin Badger has averaged 22.3 plays, 7.8 carries, 33.8 rushing yards, 2.5 targets, 1.8 receptions and 15.8 receiving yards. Both of his touchdowns came in Week 2 against Tennessee.
Hall had a tremendous run down the stretch last year, but this season things have been subdued, with the Iowa State Cyclone averaging just under 40 rushing yards per game and another 29.6 through the air. The Bills have allowed at least 96 rushing yards or a touchdown to opposing lead backs in each game this season.
Expect a baseline of a dozen carries and a handful of targets for Hall, with Allen seeing about half of that. Isaiah Davis was on the field for three plays in Week 3, which is the only running back appearance outside of Hall and Allen.
Wide Receiver | Bills-Jets NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 6
Garrett Wilson has been on the field for 96% of the snaps in four of the five games this season, seeing action on “only” 88% of the plays in Week 3 against New England, when he scored one of his two touchdowns on the year. Last Sunday, Wilson saw an absurd 22 targets from Rodgers, with most being short routes. He hauled in 13 catches for 101 yards and a score. That is likely going to be the highwater mark for volume this season, though there is no reason to despair as the second-year wideout has seen at least eight targets in four of the five games.
Allen Lazard has 18 targets in the last two games and eight or more three times this season. Most importantly, he has four of Rodgers’ seven touchdowns, which makes sense, as the future Hall of Famer pushed to have his buddy brought over from Green Bay.
Mike Williams has four, five and four targets over the last three games, and each week he is further removed from last year’s season-ending injury. There will be some games this year when opposing defenses fail to keep tabs on the former Charger, and that is when he will deliver the fantasy goodness.
Rookie Malachi Corley saw action on one play in each of the first two games, and he has been invisible ever since. Xavier Gipson had a season low two offensive snaps in London and he is going to be the odd man out unless something happens to Wilson, Lazard or Williams.
Tight End | Bills-Jets NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 6
Tyler Conklin has been on the field for at least 90% of the snaps in four of the five games, and he has a whopping 17 of his 27 targets over the last two tilts. Jeremy Ruckert will be on the field for 30% to 40% of the plays, and the former Ohio State Buckeye already has seven targets, representing nearly 25% of his career opportunities.
Undrafted rookie Brenden Bates will probably be on the field for half a dozen plays unless something befalls one of his counterparts. The Kentucky Wildcat is still waiting on his first offensive opportunity.
Kicker | Bills-Jets NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 6
Greg Zuerlein is in his age-37 season, and he is no longer commonly referred to as Legatron. Over the last five seasons, he has converted on exactly half of his 32 attempts from beyond 50 yards. He can still get it done from the 40 to 49 range, with an 85.6% success rate on 49 attempts in the same timeframe. Field goals continue to be a fickle mistress.
Defense | Bills-Jets NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 6
New York has recorded 18 sacks, which was a top-5 figure heading into this week. Buffalo has been stingy, however, ceding only six on the season. The Jets have a pair of picks and four fumble recoveries. Allen still has not been intercepted this season, and he has a league-low six sacks.
Bills-Jets NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 6: Rankings
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Now let’s jump into the final rankings for this Bills-Jets MNF slate.
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Bills-Jets
- Josh Allen: Should be the most popular player across the DFS sites tonight.
- Garrett Wilson: There is a strong argument he is a better multiplier play than Allen, particularly on DraftKings with full-PPR. Even on FanDuel he is worthy of this honor, given the likely volume he will see tonight.
- Breece Hall: He will pop off at some point; why not tonight?
- Tyler Conklin: Salary cap constraints have him pushed up the fantasy point-per-dollar ranks.
- Dalton Kincaid: Having Shakir available would take some defensive attention away from Kincaid.
- James Cook: Would move above Hall if not for the toe injury. UPDATE: Cook is inactive. Looking at OddsShopper.com we can see that Ty Johnson has a 23.5 yard rushing prop, with Ray Davis at 49.5.
- Aaron Rodgers: Touchdowns should be there this season, even if yardage is not.
- Tyler Bass: We need salary savers, and unless Cook is out, there are no uber values.
- Allen Lazard: Touchdown dependent, but he has the implicit trust of his quarterback.
- Mack Hollins: One long reception could have him as a crucial part of the optimal lineup in a low-scoring game.
Secondary Options
- Khalil Shakir: Even if he plays, there is talk that the team will limit his workload and potentially routes to protect his ankle. That doesn’t sound promising, or is it coach speak? Why rush him back with another three months of the regular season and then the playoffs at risk?
- Keon Coleman: Still waiting for the rookie to produce more than flashes.
- Braelon Allen: This is written for an audience of one, though you too can play him with or without Hall when looking for the edge.
- Greg Zuerlein: Would a game consisting of two touchdowns and six combined field goals really be shocking?
- New York D/ST: The sack exchange may not be open for business against Allen.
Lottery Tickets
- Curtis Samuel: If Shakir is out, move the veteran even with Coleman.
- Tyler Johnson and Ray Davis: Johnson with the slight edge if Cook plays. If Cook is out, this duo moves up five spots. Both may see action returning kickoffs, though cornerback Brandon Codrington is the lead option for both kickoff and punt returns.
- Jeremy Ruckert: Punt option on both sites.
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Meh.
- Dawson Knox: Addition of Kincaid has ruined his fantasy value.
- Xavier Gipson: Last player worthy of his own line; main punt returner and shares kickoff duties with reserve running back Isaiah Davis.
- Isaiah Davis, Quintin Morris, Brenden Bates, Irving Charles and Reggie Gilliam: Sorry Folks, Park’s closed — the Moose out front shoulda told you.
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