Bills-Dolphins DFS Picks: Week 2 Thursday Night Football NFL DFS

Thursday Night Football has a 48.5 projected total, which is one of the higher totals for the week, plus there are already injury and performance questions for both teams. This, of course, adds to the intrigue and decision points across the NFL DFS world. In this edition of Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’re diving into the Bills-Dolphins showdown for Week 2 Thursday Night Football.

Bills-Dolphins DFS Picks: Thursday Night Football Week 2 NFL DFS

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In this article, we break down the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel, featuring team previews, player rankings, expert analysis and top NFL DFS picks.

With in-depth coverage of Thursday night’s Bills-Dolphins Showdown, let’s dive into the best plays and strategies for this exciting slate.

Bills-Dolphins DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 2: Josh Allen

So why do fantasy gamers love him so much? Well, it is because of the 15 rushing touchdowns, with three more tacked on in the postseason. Pop quiz: Who leads the league in rushing scores after Week 1? Of course it will be Allen since he is in this featured section of the article. Currently he is tied at two rushing touchdowns with new Philadelphia running back Saquon Barkley and rookie signal-caller Jayden Daniels, who should have plenty of garbage-time goodness for Washington this season.

The consistency of Allen’s red zone proclivity is outstanding, with rushing scores in 12 of 17 regular season games and both of the playoff performances. Essentially each trip to the end zone is about the same as 50 passing yards and a touchdown.

The former University of Wyoming Cowboy has the second-highest salary on DraftKings, topping the board on FanDuel. This is fair, considering that 1) he is almost like getting two players in one with his rushing upside, and 2) his median fantasy point projections have the same rankings.

The Stokastic NFL DFS projected stats have the DFS darling with a median line of 21.68 completions on 33.7 attempts for 240.8 yards, 1.63 touchdowns and 1.12 potential turnovers. That state line is eerily similar to the projection for Aaron Rodgers on Monday Night Football, but Allen also has 39.51 rushing yards and a 30% probability of scoring a rushing touchdown, which is appropriate but also feels low.

Things, of course, change year over year, particularly with the Buffalo pass-catching corps, but it is good to see that Allen has topped the 300-yard plateau each of his last four regular season games against the Dolphins.

It is important to note that Allen did hurt his left hand towards the end of Sunday’s game, though it remains to be seen if that is going to have a dramatic impact on his throwing ability.

Buffalo Bills Positional Preview

Running Back | Bills-Dolphins NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 2

James Cook was solid, getting 19 carries and three targets, despite his team having only 56 offensive plays (33 runs, 23 passes). That is around 10 fewer plays than fantasy gamers expect from Buffalo, which equates to a long-sustained drive. There is, of course, no guarantee that this proportional workload remains, though, as the heavy usage came with Cook on the field for just 38 (61%) of the 62 total snaps.

Rookie Ray Davis played on only six snaps, getting three carries for 13 yards and one target for a 14-yard reception. Veteran Ty Johnson was on the field for 14 (23%) plays, seeing a pair of totes for seven yards and one target, which did not result in a catch.

With the short week, nothing dramatic should change on the median projection front, but expect Davis to be worked in more throughout the season and Cook to see fewer touches per snap.

Wide Receiver | Bills-Dolphins NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 2

There are major changes to the wide receiver corps, with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis both in new uniforms this season. The team brought in journeyman Mack Hollins for experience and as someone who can actually play meaningful snaps, albeit in a supporting role. He saw a pair of targets, collecting 25 yards and most importantly a touchdown while trailing only rookie Keon Coleman (73% vs. 58%) from a snap share perspective.

It was good to see the second-round selection out of Florida State on the field so much as there were a wide range of training camp reports on his effectiveness. He brought in four of his five targets, for 51 yards, which is a solid debut.

Veteran Curtis Samuel signed for a three-year, $24 million deal after spending the last three seasons in Washington. He dealt with a sore toe all training camp, and Samuel was on the field for just 17 snaps in Week 1, bringing in both his targets for 15 yards while also getting a carry for 6 more.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling was brought in as a field-stretcher, aka wind-sprint extraordinaire, getting two looks on his 13 plays for one 19-yard grab. He is the most likely to see dwindling playing time as Coleman increases his confidence and Samuel returns to full health.

Last but not least is Khalil Shakir, who has the most familiarity with Allen, though he played on only 53% of the snaps. He will rotate in on two- and three-wide receiver sets, but we need to remember that Buffalo is willing to go with two-tight end sets often, as well as occasionally putting Reggie Gilliam in as the fullback, with the wideouts losing a spot in those scenarios.

Shakir had three targets, converting each for 42 combined yards and a score. Unless someone is injured, it is unlikely he will crack the 50% to 60% snap share range, though a baseline of around five targets is reasonable.

Tight End | Bills-Dolphins NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 2

Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox each had two targets in the opener, with Kincaid leading all pass-catchers with an 84% snap share. Remember, he rarely sets up in line, working more from the slot or split out wide. That is another competitor for Shakir’s opportunities, but it really should not impact Knox (58% snap share).

Quintin Morris served as the backup tight end, logging half a dozen plays but not getting any targets. Last year he was on the field for 185 snaps, seeing only three targets for a pair of catches and a touchdown, which was during Sunday Night Football in Week 6 against the New York Giants.

Kicker | Bills-Dolphins NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 2

Tyler Bass is a league-average kicker with an 85.2% conversion rate for field goal attempts in his career. He was 6 of 9 (67%) from 50-plus yards over the last two seasons while also converting on 97% of his PATs during this timeframe.

Defense | Bills-Dolphins NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 2

Buffalo was fourth in the league with 54 sacks last season, though the Dolphins ceded only 31 quarterback takedowns for the fourth fewest in the league. Miami was in the middle of the pack with 25 turnovers, while the Bills had the third-most takeaways (30), trailing the Giants and Ravens by one.

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Bills-Dolphins NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 2: Tyreek Hill

Hill and Lamb both had 29 receptions of at least 20 yards, with Brandon Aiyuk (28) coming in second. He is challenging Allen both for the top salary and the top median-fantasy point baseline. Allen has both honors on FanDuel, while Hill has the edge in full-PPR scoring on DraftKings.

Miami Dolphins Positional Preview

Quarterback | Bills-Dolphins NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 2

Last year Tua Tagovailoa led the league with 4,624 aerial yards, and he is currently the frontrunner again, with 338 in Week 1. While he was not as efficient as in 2022, he did play all 17 games and earned Pro Bowl honors. Miami has one of the fastest collection of skill-position players in the league, and in all actuality, they are second to none.

That takes a lot of pressure off Tagovailoa, with several players capable of teleporting into the end zone from anywhere on the field, but it also could curb some of his counting stats. It is a long season, and the 26-year-old is off to a great start, but tonight will be a test far tougher than Sunday’s against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Running Back | Bills-Dolphins NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 2

Raheem Mostert (shoulder) is out, and De’Von Achane (ankle) is questionable. Because of the short week, the practice reports are not particularly reliable, with Achane listed as a limited participant. Plus we have already seen that NFL coaches have ramped up the subterfuge and misinformation campaign, as exhibited by the Christian McCaffrey situation.

Going with what we do know, rookie Jaylen Wright, who was inactive for Week 1, should suit up tonight. The fourth-rounder showed enough in just his sophomore (875 yards, 10 touchdowns) and junior (1,013 yards, four touchdowns) seasons as a runner that he felt confident in leaving the University of Tennessee early. He was an acceptable pass-catcher in college, though far from a priority while with the Volunteers.

Speed is something that made Wright attractive to the Dolphins, and he had a 4.38 40-yard dash at the combine, second for running backs and the 10th best overall. While that is not quite in the same category as his new teammates, it is borderline elite. If Achane is active, the expectation is that Wright will have around a half dozen offensive looks, with more available in a lopsided game.

Veteran Jeff Wilson Jr. is the most likely to slot in for Mostert, though he has trouble staying healthy himself. Wilson has been in the league since 2018, flashing his effectiveness when he is not in the training room. The coaching staff is very familiar with him, dating back to their shared days in San Francisco, and we also need to remember that Wilson outlasted Myles Gaskin, Salvon Ahmed and Chase Edmonds over the last three seasons.

Something in the 10- to 12-touch range makes sense for Wilson, with a handful more available if Achane is out or ineffective. Not for nothing, but it is worth noting that Wilson has five multi-touchdown games in his career.

Wide Receiver | Bills-Dolphins NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 2

Rookie Malik Washington (quad) is out, which helps consolidate things somewhat at this position. Hill was covered above, and he, of course, is the top option.

Jaylen Waddle is a steady presence, and while he is not on the same level as Hill, calling him a WR2 feels like a disservice as well. Somehow Waddle has a label of being a possession receiver. Yes, he had 9.8 yards per reception on 104 catches his rookie season and 14.1 last year on 72 receptions, but in his sophomore campaign he led the league with 18.1 yards per catch: 75 receptions for 1,356 yards plus eight tuddies. That was while Hill was still in Kansas City, but do not dismiss Waddle.

Veteran Braxton Berrios played on 37% of the snaps, which, of course, was well behind Waddle (72%) and Hill (70%), but it was enough time on the field to see a pair of targets. He has familiarity with Tagovailoa, though he is well down the pecking order for any sort of volume.

Grant DuBose (who?!) and Robbie Chosen (wow, he is still in the league?!) were on the field for 13 and 12 offensive plays, respectively. Neither got even a glance from Tagovailoa, and it would not be a surprise if that were the same outcome tonight.

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Tight End | Bills-Dolphins NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 2

This position remains a mystery with Julian Hill (59% snaps, one target), Durham Smythe (42% snaps, three targets) and Jonnu Smith (28% snaps, two targets), pretty much sharing everything. Last year this was a two-man show with Smythe getting the majority of the work at 43 targets, while Hill had just nine. Smith is the best pass-catcher of the bunch, but with so many mouths to feed, he will be a wild card option most weeks, though a fun last-round Best Ball selection.

Kicker | Bills-Dolphins NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 2

Jason Sanders is a steady, though not spectacular option. This is his seventh season with Miami, but his only postseason awards were earning All-Pro honors in the 2020 season. Distance is not his forte, and while he nailed his 52-yarder on Sunday, over the last three seasons he was 9 of 19 (47.4%) from that range, so now he has made exactly half of his last 20 50-plus yards field goal attempts.

Defense | Bills-Dolphins NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 2

The Dolphins were even better than Buffalo last year, topping their counterparts by two sacks with 56 — ranking third in the league, behind only Kansas City (57) and Baltimore (60). The Bills allowed just 24 sacks, which was the best in the league,

Bills-Dolphins NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football Week 2: Rankings

Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Bills-Dolphins

1. Tyreek Hill: Ever so slightly.
2. Josh Allen: Minor concerns of his throwing hand not being at 100% hold him back, but just barely.
3. Jaylen Waddle: Miami may have to go to the pass, especially if Achane is not effective.
4. James Cook: Appears to have the edge for now. Got three red zone opportunities; Davis and Johnson each had one, with Allen getting 10.
5. De’Von Achane: Would be above Waddle if there were no injury concerns.
6. Tua Tagovailoa: Last five games against Buffalo have him topping 250 aerial yards once, with five passing touchdowns and one on the ground.
7. Jeff Wilson Jr.: If Achane is out, move him up to that slot; even if Achane were 100%, the current salary cap hit for Wilson has him securely in the top 10 plays tonight.
8. Dalton Kincaid: More yardage upside than Knox; essentially a giant wide receiver.
9. Jason Sanders: Homefield familiarity and we need salary savings.
10. Keon Coleman: Let’s see what the kid can do.

Secondary Options

1. Tyler Bass: Would trade spots with Sanders if this game were in Buffalo tonight.
2. Kahlil Shakir: Lots of familiarity with Allen; that cuts both ways, though.
3. Jaylen Wright: If Achane is inactive, Wright becomes No.10 on the board, with personal preference and strategy factoring in how much higher individual gamers will take him.
4. Mack Hollins: Got there with a touchdown but also more involved than expected. The door is open for this to continue since he is more reliable than Shakir, albeit not necessarily with this coaching staff — just yet, anyway.
5. Curtis Samuel: Wish he did not have the toe issue; could still get to a profitable level on efficiency or with a touchdown.

Lottery Tickets

1. Miami D/ST: Strong unit last year, tough matchup tonight.
2. Buffalo D/ST: Ibid.
3. Ray Davis and Tyler Johnson: If only one were active, they would move above Samuel in the next section. For now the split of the RB2 role is undetermined, keeping both in play, but neither is an exciting click.
4. Dawson Knox: Could get there on a touchdown, but this offense is so crowded. Last year he had only two scores after logging 15 in his preceding 30 games. Kincaid only had two, with Allen stealing most of the thunder with his legs.
5. Jonnu Smith: No Week 1 red zone looks, though it was Tagovailoa (4), Achane (3), Hill (2) and Waddle (1), as expected.
6. Braxton Berrios: Does just enough to get his own line, much better on DraftKings with full-PPR and the lower salary floor. Shares punt return role with Hill, likely the lead kickoff returner with Achane dinged up.
7. Durham Smythe, Julian Hill and Quintin Morris: TE3s and their magical primetime superpowers cannot be ignored.
8. Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Robbie Chosen, Grant Dubose, Alec Ingold, Tanner Conner and Reggie Gilliam: If they beat me, I will not have won a million dollars tonight.