Bears-Texans DFS Picks: Week 2 Sunday Night Football NFL DFS

Sunday Night Football has a 45.5 projected total, which is reasonable for two young teams trying to find their footing in a dog-eat-dog world. This, of course, adds to the intrigue and decision points across the NFL DFS world. In this edition of Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’re diving into the Bears-Texans showdown for Week 2 Sunday Night Football, evaluating NFL DFS ownership projections and player projections.

Bears-Texans DFS Picks: Sunday Night Football Week 2 NFL DFS

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 With comprehensive coverage of Sunday night’s Bears-Texans Showdown, let’s explore the best plays and strategies for this exciting slate.

Bears-Texans DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 2: Caleb Williams

Last Sunday, Williams became the first rookie quarterback to start and win a Week 1 game since David Carr (Derek’s older brother) led the newly minted Houston Texans to the first franchise victory back in 2002. It was a shocking 19-10 upset of the Dallas Cowboys, allowing the Texans to become the second expansion team to win its inaugural game.

Of course, it was the Chicago defense and special teams that carried the water, with a pick-six and a blocked punt returned for a touchdown. Williams was sacked twice while rushing five times for 15 yards. He also was 14-for-29 (48.3%) for a paltry 93 yards, and while he did not suffer any interceptions, he did lose a fumble.

The Stokastic NFL DFS projected stats have the former USC Trojan with a median line of 19.2 completions on 29.8 attempts for 211.8 yards, 1.32 touchdowns and 1.04 potential turnovers. From a rushing perspective, the numbers look low-ish, with 3.9 carries for 24.95 yards and a 15% chance of a rushing touchdown.

The baseline assumes that one of Allen and Odunze will be able to suit up, so keep in mind if both are out, this could lead to more runs for Williams. We know that inexperienced quarterbacks and rookies tend to tuck the ball and run at the first sign of trouble. The defense will be keying on Williams, but if he can have a hand in a couple touchdowns, he will be a huge fantasy asset tonight.

Chicago Bears Positional Preview

Running Back | Bears-Texans NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 2

Offensive coordinator Shane Waldron leaned on familiar players in his first game overseeing Chicago. Somehow Travis Homer, who played under Waldron for two seasons in Seattle, out-snapped Khalil Herbert 11 to six, which was odd. Of course, it was newcomer D’Andre Swift who was on the field for 39 of the 56 (70%) plays, though he had only 10 carries for 30 yards and was unable to convert his lone target.

Blasingame had seven plays, which also was more than Herbert, but he will miss Sunday’s affair with hand and knee issues. That should at least get Herbert on the field more, though he may not overtake Homer. Roschon Johnson was inactive last week, but he could suit up tonight with Blasingame out.

Houston was solid against the run in Week 1, holding Jonathan Taylor to 16 carries, 48 yards and a touchdown. Quarterback Anthony Richardson also scored, adding 56 yards on the ground across six totes. This duo is basically better versions of the Chicago options, so expectations are obviously tempered for tonight. Though even limited and broken offenses can put up fantasy points, plus we are all using the same player pool.

Wide Receiver | Bears-Texans NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 2

Allen left Sunday’s game with a heel issue, the same injury that hampered him during training camp as well as down the stretch in his final campaign with the Chargers. He has not practiced at all this week, and there is a good chance he will be out tonight. Odunze tweaked his knee, more specifically his MCL. He did get in a limited practice, and the team has indicated this is probably a pain tolerance situation, though he too could be held out as the Bears look to protect their assets. Allen led the team with 11 targets, while Odunze saw four. If Allen does miss, it could lead to more tight end targets as the team focuses on the short passing game to help Williams gain confidence.

DJ Moore had eight targets in the opener, and he should be in line for similar opportunities tonight. Of course, the defense will be keying in on him, but he does excel on hot routes and quick reads. He had five receptions, though just 36 yards — which is still a big chunk of the 93 total passing yards.

Veteran returner DeAndre Carter was pressed into duty as a receiver, playing on 11 snaps. This is his second stint with Chicago, having played a handful of games with them in 2020 while coincidently playing for the Texans as well that year. He has suited up for six different franchises in his seven seasons, seeing spot duty as a wideout but mostly focusing on kick returns.

He dazzled with a 67-yard kickoff return last week and could always make some noise on the single-game slate as a pass-catcher if he can get one in open space.

Velus Jones Jr. would be the biggest beneficiary, depending on the availability of Allen and Odunze, plus the team likes him for rushes. Last week he had two carries for 11 yards, giving him 19 total carries for 165 yards and a touchdown in his three seasons with Chicago. He is less active in the passing game, though the third-rounder out of Tennessee could get a half dozen looks tonight, making him an interesting option. Check the inactives report and then act accordingly.

Tyler Scott and Collin Johnson are the create-a-players at the mercy of Allen’s and Odunze’s availability. Scott was a fourth-round selection out of Cincinnati last year, getting offensive opportunities in 13 games. He had 32 targets for 17 receptions and 168 yards, adding 41 more yards on seven carries. Johnson has floated around the league, dealing with various injuries and never really getting much traction as even a semi-regular.

Tight End | Bears-Texans NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 2

In 2017, Gerald Everett had Waldron as his position coach for his rookie season, with both moving up through the ranks in Los Angeles over the next few seasons. Everett also played for Waldron in Seattle during the 2021 season, so, of course, the 30-year-old out-snapped incumbent Cole Kmet 34 to 27, with the ancient Marcedes Lewis on the field for nine plays. It is a testament to Lewis that he is able to take the field as a 40-year-old, but just what the heck is Waldron doing?!

Everett and Kmet each had one target, so there is not really much to infer here, other than both would see another target or two for each starting wide receiver that misses tonight’s game.

Kicker | Bears-Texans NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 2

Cairo Santos is a solid kicker, with this being his 11th NFL season. He had a 91.1% conversion rate on his field goals over the last four years, going 13 of 18 (72%) from beyond 50 yards, including 12 of 14 (86%) over the last two-plus seasons.

Defense | Bears-Texans NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 2

Two return touchdowns are not likely to be replicated, even including the remaining September games. Chicago did have three sacks against Tennessee, with eight tackles for loss. The Bears also had a pair of picks and a fumble recovery, so there is still a solid baseline for this unit, sans splash plays. Last week the Texans allowed four sacks but no turnovers.

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Bears-Texans NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 2: Joe Mixon

Oddly, Cam Akers was inactive after having a strong training camp with his new team. However, with Dameon Pierce (hamstring) not practicing on Friday, we could see Akers slide into the player pool. Pierce saw the field on nine (11%) plays, getting a trio of totes for 16 yards. Both backs can contribute in all facets of the game, so expect whichever is active to see a decent amount of action tonight. Yes, Mixon is looking like a bell cow, but the wear and tear on running backs takes a toll. The Texans are a well-run organization, so hopefully they don’t run Mixon into the ground before Halloween.

Dare Ogunbowale is in his third season with Houston, and the 30-year-old is the veteran presence in the passing game. His best days are behind him, but at $400 on DraftKings, he is an extreme discount dandy who projects for 1.6 offensive opportunities.

Houston Texans Positional Preview

Quarterback | Bears-Texans NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 2

Last year C.J. Stroud was the runaway Rookie of the Year, also earning Pro Bowl honors. The addition of Mixon and veteran receiver Stefon Diggs should only make the 22-year-old more effective and efficient. Last year he had 23 aerial scores and just five interceptions, leading the league with a 1% interception rate. He also led the league with 273.9 passing yards per game, missing Week 15 and 16. Though he had three rushing scores, he only had 167 yards on 39 carries, which is the lone knock against him from being a DFS superstar.

Wide Receiver | Bears-Texans NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 2

Diggs was a terrific add, being a stabilizing presence for youngsters Nico Collins and Tank Dell, who each broke out last season alongside their quarterback. Dell had a great rookie seasons, playing in 10 games and recording 75 targets, 47 receptions, 709 yards and seven scores. He also had 11 carries for another 51 yards, and his Week 13 injury broke the hearts of the fantasy community.

Collins leveled up in his third season, bringing in 80 of his 109 targets for 1,297 yards and eight touchdowns. He had five games with at least 100 receiving yards, including outings of 195, 191 and 168 yards. Last week he converted six of his eight opportunities into 117 yards. Dell was second on the team with seven targets, catching three for 40 yards while getting two carries for 19 rushing yards.

Circling back to Diggs, he popped off with a pair of touchdowns, catching all six targets, albeit for only 33 yards. The 30-year-old has made the Pro Bowl team for four consecutive seasons, being named a First-Team All-Pro in 2020 when he led the league in receptions and yards, and getting Second-Team honors in 2022. There is only so much offense to go around with this trio, but while they are going to curb the median projections for one another, any could crush with multiple touchdowns or 100-plus yards.

Tight End | Bears-Texans NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 2

Dalton Schultz was on the field for 80% of the offensive snaps, getting three targets, while Brevin Jordan played on 51% of the action and had two targets.

Rookie Cade Stover, who was a fourth-round selection out of Ohio State, was on the field for 15 (19%) snaps, though he did not get any looks from his former college quarterback. He began his career with the Buckeyes as a defensive lineman, moving to a role as a linebacker and tight end in his second season. His last two years were as a full-time tight end, and it would not be a surprise to see him surpass Jordan by the holidays as the TE2.

Schultz is still the top dog, but like the receiving corps, this is a crowded position. Stover is just $200 on DraftKings, making him an extreme punt option for those crafting 25 or more lineups. On FanDuel ($9,500), Schultz is the superior point-per-dollar option among this trio, and by that ratio he is also a strong secondary play from the Houston side.

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Kicker | Bears-Texans NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 2

Ka’imi Fairbairn is in his eighth season as the lead kicker for the Texans. Last week he nailed all three of his kicks from beyond 50 yards, giving him 11 of his last 12 (92%). He has an absurd 95.2% success rate over the last two-plus seasons while also converting on 47 of 48 (98%) of his extra point attempts.

Defense | Bears-Texans NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 2

Williams was sacked twice last week and lost one fumble. Houston got to Richardson twice and intercepted him once. Even if there is a likely conservative approach from Chicago, the Texans should be able to have a meaningful fantasy score.

Bears-Texans NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Week 2: Rankings

Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Bears-Texans

1. C.J. Stroud: Even without the rushing production, he still has the best median fantasy point projection.
2. Joe Mixon: Likely in line for another heavy load, though expect 8 to 10 fewer opportunities than his 31 Week 1 looks.
3. DJ Moore: The only healthy receiver for Chicago; it also helps that he is incredibly talented.
4. Caleb Williams: The price is right, plus there may be more running attempts tonight.
5. Ka’imi Fairbairn: Great salary saver, and he is an underappreciated fantasy asset.
6. Nico Collins: Simply amazing but in a crowded offense.
7. D’Andre Swift: The theory is that he will get more passing looks if one or both of the injured wideouts can’t suit up.
8. Tank Dell: Pretty much the same assessment as Collins, though with less NFL experience.
9. DeAndre Carter: Borderline core play at $2,000 on DraftKings if Allen and Odunze are both out; more of a tournament target if only one misses.
10. Cairo Santos: Has the leg, but can Williams regularly get him into scoring position?

Secondary Options

1. Cam Akers and Dare Ogunbowale: This ranking is with the expectation that Pierce will be out with his hamstring issue. Hard to trust Pierce if he is active.
2. Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze: Would be in the top 10 over Carter and Santos if at full health. The guess is that Allen will sit and Odunze will be limited in his effectiveness if he does play. This is not for the faint of heart.
3. Houston D/ST: Expecting something close to half a dozen sacks and turnovers; touchdowns, of course, would be a difference-maker.
4. Dalton Schultz: Another crowded position; he will be the lead tight end but competing with three receivers and Mixon for high-leverage looks in the red zone.
5. Chicago D/ST: Stroud limits interceptions, but a multi-sack game is likely, plus Carter’s kick return upside counts here.

Lottery Tickets

1. Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett: Kmet is double the salary of Everett on DraftKings ($5,000 vs. $2,400), keeping things interesting. On FanDuel Kmet is $9,500, which is the same as Schultz and $500 more than the kickers. That makes for a low popularity ranking, increasing tournament appeal for differentiation. Everett is pretty much out of play at $8,000 if you think the playing time will reverse with Kmet.
2. Khalil Herbert and Travis Homer: Waldron hopefully will come to his senses with Kmet and Herbert instead of leaning on his former players.
3. Velus Jones Jr.: Moves to the top of the section if both Allen and Odunze are out. Still well down the pecking order but will at least be on the field like Carter in multi-wideout sets.
4. Cade Stover and Brevin Jordan: Stover is better on DraftKings at the minimum salary; Jordan gets the veteran nod on the blue site.
5. Marcedes Lewis: In his rookie season, Bad Day, Crazy, Hips Don’t Lie and SexyBack were at the top of the music charts. #Respect
6. Steven Sims: Expected to return punts and likely kickoffs if Pierce is out. This is only based on the depth chart as Houston did not have any returns in Week 1.
7. Robert Woods, Xavier Hutchinson and Collin Johnson: So you’re saying there’s a chance?!