Welcome back to the states. After a two-week trip around Scotland, the PGA Tour resumes post-major for the 3M Open. There are few surprises at TPC Twin Cities, as everyone is aware of the game plan: Accuracy over anything else. We should expect another winning score in the mid- to high teens, as it’s easy enough to conquer but offers just enough defense to keep it respectable. This is a massive letdown from a field standpoint following the Open Championship, with Tony Finau being the clear-cut headliner — and having solid course history.
The course itself is on the easier side of what tour players face. Lacking true star power, the field doesn’t have the usual names seen at elevated events. Instead, we do get a couple of familiar names from last week like Billy Horschel and Sam Burns, along with some household favorites like Sahith Theegala and Keith Mitchell. This is a fantastic week to look at some longer shots to win the event or simply the first round.
Our first-round leader play will identify someone who not only fits this course but also their price. Not having Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele and others will bump up odds for guys normally in the longer range.
That’s not always a curse, as we understand prices will adjust each week depending on the field. We’ve seen some rather long shots take down the 3M, and this year should be no different. There are 16 players (at the moment) coming from the Open, but don’t expect travel to impact on their game.
3M Open First Round Leader Picks
Our Lineup Generator provides outstanding value at Stokastic! Discover how to use it effectively with our other MLB DFS tools by checking out our Lineup Generator Guide!
The Keys To The Kingdom
Just stay out of the water. Seems simple, right? That’s the key at TPC Twin Cities, as we’ve seen each of the five years of tour stops. The course is longer at just over 7,400 yards and plays to a par 71 with plenty of water hazards lurking. These are hole killers if not properly avoided, so instead of just pure distance, we are looking for golfers who thrive in gaining strokes off the tee. Good drives, or drives that sacrifice length for distance to ensure a green in regulation, will be another factor. Getting off the tee is crucial to avoiding the fairway bumps and bruises — namely staying dry.
The rest is setting up clear paths to the hole via strong approach shots and good reads on the greens. Speaking of which, there isn’t much concern getting to them, as these are some of the larger landing surfaces golfers will see all year. Mostly anyone in contention is going to be hitting greens in regulation rather consistently. It’s the exact opposite if anyone struggles to land their ball on the green; that golfer is more than likely cooked and out of the tournament.
We will look at gaining strokes off the tee and on approach shots, as well as guys who consistently score when the opportunity arises. This isn’t a course where golfers will grind out birdies to stay 2 or 3 under, rather they will focus on setting up scoring chances with easy approach shots — so long as the ball is dry.
3M Open First-Round Leader Picks
3M Open First Round Leader Picks: Luke Clanton (+4000 at BetMGM)
This is not a course to overthink anything. We just want fits for Twin Cities more than anything else primarily because that means staying out of the water. Hazards and length have increased at this course over time, with the latter being easier to control for the majority of the field. Keeping a dry ball leans more on golfers already accustomed to shaping tee shots and limiting length to increase their accuracy. We find Luke Clanton not because he’s dominating on tour but because he’s doing the right things for this course better than nearly everyone in the field.
Clanton is atop the field when it comes to strokes gained off the tee. He’s good at understanding how far he can hit while avoiding water. He’s right there with Burns, Keegan Bradley and Maverick McNealy as the class of this field in total driving — a combo of distance and accuracy. Clanton has also been successful in gaining shots off the approach, a key vehicle to set up easier putts. We can keep going; Clanton is at the top of the field when it comes to bogey avoidance and scoring in easier conditions. This is as close to a perfect fit as it gets, especially with a weaker field around him. I’m taking him for first-round leader, top 10 first round, top 20 and a typical 0.25 units to win.
3M Open First Round Leader Picks: Taylor Pendrith (+5000 at Bet365)
Taylor Pendrith missed the cut last year because he couldn’t putt. He couldn’t save par — or his life, for that matter — on the green, losing nearly a full stroke over just two days. So what’s changed? He is another year wiser on reading what should be some of the easier greens. He’s also putting better overall, including a slight gain en route to a top 5 finish at the Barracuda. Pendrith fits the bill across multiple categories of interest, but addressing the putter seems to be the biggest boost of confidence. He’s made six straight cuts and only lost strokes on the green once. Other than that, it’s been consistently good for Pendrith where it matters.
He’s a fit for gaining strokes both off the tee and with approach shots. Taking the recent success he’s had and folding it into the course fit, we find a golfer in Pendrith who should look much improved from last year. He’s just not losing strokes; there may be minimal gains, but they are still positive results. That’s enough to put him in position to score, especially earlier on in the round.
For additional tips on using the Post-Contest Simulator to improve your lineup analysis, check out Steve Buzzard’s guide on how to use simulations to refine your lineup study process!
Stokastic’s PGA Tools & Expert Advice
Looking for more PGA DFS advice? Our expert articles are packed with helpful tips, but even our pros rely on tools. A subscription to Stokastic provides access to the same resources our experts use to win contests, including PGA DFS projections, lineup generator, contest simulator and weather splits tool.
