Is there anything more annoying in Best Ball than running back committees? All they give Best Ball players is a case of the night sweats as they try to parse who is most likely to make a full-season impact. Luckily, Stokastic’s FREE Best Ball Rankings are here to help, and we will turn to them to help identify the best options in three key running back committees. Let’s get into our Underdog Best Ball running back rankings and find the best values like Tyjae Spears and Tony Pollard.
Underdog Best Ball Running Back Committees & Rankings
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Bears RB Committee: D’Andre Swift vs. Roschon Johnson vs. Khalil Herbert
D’Andre Swift: ADP 93.0, No. 81 Overall, RB19
Roschon Johnson: ADP 197.1, No. 218 Overall, RB63
Khalil Herbert: ADP 187.4, No. 182 Overall, RB54
The key developments in the Bears running back room come down to how the coaches have reported their approach to the backfield:
Might want to move D’Andre Swift down your draft boards. 📉
Sounding more and more like a committee in Chicago. https://t.co/CjKwA6Khb1
— Stokastic Best Ball (@Stok_BestBall) July 22, 2024
If we’re translating that correctly, it sounds like no one Bears running back is a weekly guarantee to be a top Best Ball asset. Of course, new acquisition D’Andre Swift has been the presumed RB1 — and he is currently listed as such on the depth chart — but we could start to see his projections dip a bit as training camp progresses. For now, we value him a bit ahead of ADP as the No. 81 overall player against the No. 93 average draft slot, so there is still value there since he brings a more complete package relative to the other two backs.
Speaking of which, Roschon Johnson is ahead of Khalil Herbert on the depth chart and is the most likely candidate to be the third-down back. Johnson caught 34 of 40 targets for 6.1 yards per reception, but he did not score a touchdown. The receiving volume is there, though, and year 2 could be a solid development season and boost that mediocre efficiency.
Johnson is not the bell cow runner that Herbert has been, but Herbert has also been a bit injury-prone the last few seasons. He was close to a 1,000-yard rushing pace two seasons ago while sharing carries with David Montgomery and Justin Fields, but Herbert only got to 731 yards due to only playing 13 games. Then last year he only played 12.
He will get high-leverage touches, however, so he still has good value — enough that we actually place him quite a few running back slots ahead of Johnson; we project Herbert for roughly twice as many fantasy points as Johnson this year, putting him 36 overall spots and nine running back positions ahead of Johnson.
In short, we like Herbert to still get a lot of carries since he is perhaps the best short-yardage option, whereas Swift and Johnson overlap enough skill set-wise that Johnson’s value will take more of a hit. That said, keep an eye on projections because all of these values could even out in the next few weeks.
Commanders RB Committee: Austin Ekeler vs. Brian Robinson
Austin Ekeler: ADP 129.9, No. 117 Overall, RB32
Brian Robinson: ADP 104.3, No. 132 Overall, RB40
This running back battle is perhaps our biggest disagreement from ADP. We have Austin Ekeler ranked a few spots higher than the public does (12.9 overall), but the bigger discrepancy is Brian Robinson ranking nearly 30 spots lower than ADP (28.3).
There is no denying that Robinson has been a solid fantasy contributor his first two years in Washington, as he put up over 1,100 scrimmage yards last year and was on a 1,100-yard rushing pace in his rookie season. But in a “down” year where he played 14 games, Ekeler recorded 1,064 yards from scrimmage, and two seasons ago he had 1,600 and 18 touchdowns. The year before it was 1,500 and 20.
Now, the argument for Robinson is that he is younger and produced great numbers despite splitting time with Antonio Gibson. Ekeler got a full workload as the three-down bell cow, something Robinson has yet to be afforded. Plus, people think Ekeler’s 2023 shows him on the decline.
But keep in mind that Ekeler suffered an ankle sprain early in the season that very well could have hampered him all year. He’s also only 29, not even on the wrong side of 30 yet. Reports of Ekeler’s demise are greatly exaggerated, and don’t forget that this new Dan Quinn regime handpicked Ekeler for their running back committee. Robinson, on the other hand, was a choice of the previous staff.
If Robinson drops into the 120s or 130s, then he will be a decent value. Otherwise, Ekeler is a better option since you won’t need to reach to grab him.
Titans RB Committee: Tyjae Spears vs. Tony Pollard
Tyjae Spears: ADP 129.9, No. 117 Overall, RB32
Tony Pollard: ADP 104.3, No. 132 Overall, RB40
Granted, the “pick of the new regime vs. pick of the new one” theory works here as well since new head coach Brian Callahan probably helped get Tony Pollard to Tennessee. But there are other things factoring into Tyjae Spears being the better value of the two backs in this committee.
The main thing is Pollard flaming out a bit as the Cowboys lead back. He looked great when he was sharing a backfield with Ezekiel Elliott in 2022, which allowed Dallas to let Elliott go and give the reins to Pollard. But then Pollard finished with fewer rushing yards than the year before on way more carries and fewer receiving yards on a lot more targets.
That plummet in efficiency runs counter to what Spears showed in his rookie 2023 season. While he only ended up with 453 yards rushing, he got there on just 100 carries and averaged 5.5 yards per touch thanks to 385 yards receiving on 52 receptions. Spears actually made Derrick Henry expendable on third downs because of how good a receiver he was right away, and as a result, he saw 70 targets.
Now the Titans are fully in the Will Levis era, and young quarterbacks are more likely to rely on checkdowns to backs — especially when the offensive line is bad, which Tennessee’s is (25th in pass blocking last year, per Pro Football Focus). That points a lot of value towards Spears over Pollard, and thus we have Spears 15 spots ahead of Pollard in our Best Ball rankings (8 running back slots). The public is strongly favoring Pollard, however, drafting him 25.3 places higher.
