I get asked all the time on NBA DFS shows “Hey Eric, who are you ROI boosting in the Sims?”, as if we don’t have the best data in the entire industry where you’d be overriding potentially winning lineups to make suboptimal plays. Not to say I don’t tweak a small thing here or there in that sport, but our elite player and ownership projections in conjunction with the desire to do precisely zero stacking in NBA allow me to set-it-and-forget-it a large majority of the time.
PGA DFS, however, has some interesting nuance, as you might want to consider introducing correlation into your lineups that isn’t always picked up by simulating lineups based purely on player and ownership projections. The most common way of correlating your lineups in the golf world is by jamming five-or-six guys from the same tee time wave, as accounting for any sort of beneficial potential weather draw can have you bypassing the field not playing for that angle. But since there doesn’t appear to be any sort of major edge to be had that I’m seeing for The PLAYERS (slight Thu PM/Fri AM if you really want it?), I’ll be bypassing that in this article until a more appropriate time.
However, one thing I set up every single week in the PGA Sims are skill set mini-stacks, meaning a bomber with another bomber, a scrambler with another noted scrambler, etc. This week is especially intriguing to employ this type of strategy as TPC Sawgrass has seen various types of players succeed based on weather, rough length, and even the month this event was played in.
So let’s talk about three different combinations of players with similar skill sets I plan to pair together in lineups. And hey, I’ll throw in a few cheaper names to pair the pairs with, because that sounds fun, right? Great, off we go.
2024 The PLAYERS Championship DFS Picks
BOMBERS DELIGHT
1.) Rory McIlroy + Wyndham Clark
This may have something to do with the fact they’re the highest-ROI players in their respective ranges as well, but I love the Rory + Clark combo as leverage off the Scheffler + Anyone Else build that will dominate the week. If you’ll notice on the above graphic, I go to the filter in the top left corner and type in the golfer names to get the highest ROI lineups they both show up in on the right side of the screen. I’ll then favorite however many lineups I desire based on the contest I’m playing, and easily export them from there.
But I love that Rory’s best stateside finish of the young season is a T16 at the Genesis, as his lack of elite form should suppress the former winner of this event’s ownership. He’s still No. 1 in Strokes Gained: Off The Tee this season, and if that’s the primary skill required on a potentially wet golf course, Rory’s going to find success.
And while Clark is further back in the SG: OTT rankings, he’s 11th in driving distance with a 307.4-yard average off the tee in 2024. Plus, the man’s current form is impeccable: winner at Pebble this year, 2nd last week at the Arnold Palmer? Yeah, that’s decent.
Potential Bomber Pairings: Keith Mitchell, Doug Ghim, Byeong Hun An
THE IRON THRONE
2.) Corey Conners + Will Zalatoris
Similar to Rory and Clark, this Conners-Zalatoris pairing showcases a player who hasn’t quite put it together yet this season with a player showcasing elite current form. Conners has played in seven events so far in ’24, and yet last week’s T18 at the Arnold Palmer is the best result he has thus far. But my god, the irons have still been magnificent: over his past 24 rounds, he has gained 20.5 strokes with the approach, the 4th-best mark amongst this field during that stretch. If the putter flips, Yahtzee.
As for Zalatoris, I opted for him over Shane Lowry as the $9,900 tag might be cost prohibitive relative to Lowry’s $9,100 mark. But similar to Lowry, Zalatoris has turned it on since arriving in Florida, posting a T2 and T4 at the PGA National and Bay Hill respectively. He plays hard tracks well, and Sawgrass can certainly be that. Now the highest Sim ROI going to this pairing, but re-run the 10,000 lineups a few times and you’ll find more than enough of this combo to be satisfied.
Potential Iron Pairings: Nick Taylor, Austin Eckroat, Sam Ryder
AROUND-THE-GREEN MACHINES
3.) Hideki Matsuyama + Jordan Spieth
In a twist of fate, I’ll be pairing a golfer I roster all the time (Hideki) with a golfer I almost never click on (Spieth). Hideki has a lot more working for him than his short game, as we know just how talented of a ball-striker he is. But the putter’s been positive in three straight, and now he’s starting to get up-and-down from different area codes at times, resulting in him leading this field in Strokes Gained: Around the Green his past 24 tournament rounds.
As for Spieth, I haven’t rostered him enough throughout my years of PGA DFS, much to my chagrin. But with so much attention going towards a $100 cheaper Collin Morikawa at $9,400, I find myself wanting to fire him up despite the fact he’s missed the cut at The PLAYERS (5) more times in his career than he’s made it (4). The irons couldn’t possibly get worse, and he’s always live to find that part of his game from nowhere, so I’m encouraged to give him a go in my lineups and hope I’m the beneficiary of a ridiculous chip in or two from him that I normally lament.
Potential Around-The-Green Pairings: Russell Henley, Beau Hossler, Brendan Todd
