Opportunity is the name of the game when playing DFS. A player can’t score fantasy points unless they have the opportunity to score. In NBA DFS, there is an easy way to try and predict which players will have more chances to rack up fantasy points than others. When gauging a player’s chance at opportunity, we want to look at their game environment. Any game that is above a 225 total is a great place to start, as those games are more likely to have efficient offense versus mediocre defense. Let’s see tonight’s top two spots that meet these criteria and should be popular NBA DFS game environments among the field.
Today’s Top NBA DFS Game Environments (March 19)
Houston Rockets at Washington Wizards
Total: 227.5
The number of times I have had to write about how bad the Wizards are could be turned in as evidence for a libel lawsuit. The only point I can argue against that lawsuit is, “Am I wrong?” This Wizards team is the definition of a “Top DFS Game Environment,” with them having the worst defense while playing at the fastest pace in the NBA.
The Rockets are 9.5-point favorites against the Wizards tonight in a game that has the second-highest game total on the slate at 227.5; the next closest is 215. Amen Thompson at $5,900 is jumping out of the screen in Stokastic’s Boom/Bust tool with a 44% boom chance, a 47% chance at being optimal and 63% ownership. His soft price tag and positionality at point guard/small forward makes him an enticing play, with him able to fit in virtually any lineup. Jalen Green at $8,100 and Fred VanVleet at $8,600 are both in play tonight and have similar projections. Green is projected for 41 DraftKings points, a 21% boom chance and an 18% chance at optimality, while VanVleet is projected for 43, 23% and 15%, respectively.
It is worth mentioning Jabari Smith Jr. at $6,900 as a play today with the Wizards a bottom-5 defense versus centers, but he is not a go-to option on this team. In reality, you can’t go wrong with playing any of the Rockets starters today.
The tank is officially in for Washington, with its injury report slowly starting to look like the Grizzlies injury report. Tyus Jones and Deni Avdija are ruled out, and Kyle Kuzma is questionable today. If Kuzma is unable to go tonight, this team will be a prime spot to target for value. Jordan Poole at $6,600 is the top-rated player in Stokastic’s Boom/Bust tool from the Wizards, and he has a 34% boom chance and a 36% chance at optimality. He already has the green light to shoot whenever he wants in this offense, and if Kuzma is out, the sky will be the limit for his offensive opportunity.
Justin Champagnie at $4,200 is expected to start and is by far the most popular value play on the slate right now, with his ownership projected for 72%. Outside of those two players, I don’t have much interest in anybody else. If Kuzma is in tonight, he becomes a top play for this team, with his projection at 42 DraftKings points in 34 minutes. Focus on the Rockets side of this game.
Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs
Total: 234.5
This is the highest game total on the slate, and for good reason. Both teams are in the top 5 for fastest pace in the NBA and the bottom 10 for defensive ranking.
Starting off with Dallas, DraftKings refuses to price Luka Doncic according to his projections, as his $12,500 price tag is too cheap for what he is capable of. Doncic’s projections are just unreal at 68.61 DraftKings points, a 54% boom chance and a 30% chance at optimality. Doncic is having a historic DFS season and will always be a top spend-up option on any slate he plays.
Moving on to some cheaper plays, Daniel Gafford at $5,400 is projected for 29.5 DraftKings points in 24 minutes, and the Spurs have a bottom-5 defense against centers. Personally, I will be approaching Gafford with a different stance compared to the field. Dereck Lively II at $4,000 is intriguing tonight. He’s unpredictable and the minutes aren’t as secure as Gafford’s, but with Gafford pulling 27% ownership compared to Lively’s 9%, there is a route where Lively at $1,400 cheaper pays off his salary better than Gafford. Some scenarios could involve Gafford getting in foul trouble early or just struggling against the height of Victor Wembanyama, and then Lively would be live to get two or three more minutes. Again, only in large-field GPPs would I recommend this stance.
There is only one player I want to jam from this team, and that is none other than Wembanyama at $10,600. The main reason? Wembanyama is only projected for 7% ownership on tonight’s slate. I’m assuming that is a result of Nikola Jokic and Doncic both playing tonight and have price tags over $12,000. Wembanyama is projected for 51.68 DraftKings points in 31 minutes and gets a soft matchup versus Dallas, who is middle of the pack in defense against centers. Much like with Lively, 7% ownership is a number on which I want to be well over the field. Wembanyama’s ability to rack up stocks makes him so appealing in this spot, where this game has the potential to become a track meet. Give me a low-owned Wembanyama in hopes that he matches the score of Doncic or Jokic tonight.
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