One of the best NBA DFS strategy tools we offer here at Stokastic.com is the Boom/Bust Tool. Like in all DFS sports, being able to compare the strength of a player each day versus his popularity is key to success. In NBA, correlations between players are less valuable, so the strength of each play can be considered individually. Here, we’ll look at how to use the Boom/Bust tool to make winning lineups.
For each player, the Boom/Bust Tool calculates the standard deviations based on a variety of factors and uses that to calculate the ceiling (75th-percentile performance) the floor (25th-percentile performance) and the probability he will bust (not meeting value) or boom (value plus 10 points). Combining these metrics, you will be able to gain an edge on everyone by identifying under-owned or over-owned players and plenty of leverage in your NBA DFS contests DraftKings and FanDuel.
NBA DFS Strategy: How To Use The Boom/Bust Tool
What is the Boom/Bust Tool?
The Boom/Bust Tool is essentially a tool that calculates a player’s chances of success or failure. For the purposes of this tool, we define success as reaching 5 x (salary/1000) + 10, and we define failure as failing to reach 5 x (salary/1000). This page also provides us with other useful data, such as a player’s median projection, standard deviation, ceiling projection, and floor projection. The ceiling projection is the 75th-percentile projection and the floor projection is the 25th-percentile projection. It also shows us a player’s projected ownership.
How to use the Boom/Bust Tool to Improve Our Lineups?
The Boom/Bust Tool is powerful because it allows us to evaluate players in a variety of ways. In cash games, we are mostly concerned about a player’s median projection, but we also want to do our best to maximize our floor. Using the “Bust percentage” from this tool allows us to compare the floor of players who have similar salaries and median projections. Often we can make a decision using this information because we can see that one player is less volatile than another, and therefore less likely to hurt our lineup.
Similarly, we can compare the “Boom percentage” of players we are considering in GPPs. In these contests, we are trying to maximize the ceiling of our lineup since there is a large reward for finishing in first place. We can use the information found in the Boom/Bust Tool to prioritize players who are more volatile and give us a better chance of a monster game.
There also are more advanced ways to use the tool as you improve your game. One way, in GPPs, is to compare the “Boom percentage” of several similarly priced players to their projected ownership. Doing so can allow you to quickly spot inefficiencies in how the field is expected to value certain players.
