NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Mid-Tier Mania! (Nov. 18)

Monday gets the week started with NBA DFS tournaments locking at 7 p.m. ET on FanDuel and DraftKings. The player pool is packed with intriguing options, making it a great slate to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Let’s break down today’s core plays, including Bennedict Mathurin and several Pacers, paired with a couple of Raptors as potential run-back options.

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NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Monday, Nov. 18

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NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks

Bennedict Mathurin has continued to improve his field goal conversion rate in each of his three seasons. He has averaged just shy of a dozen shots a game, increasing his effective field goal rate from 48.7%, to 50.7%, and this year he has jumped off the charts with a 59.5% rate. That is not sustainable, but something in the mid-50s is definitely in the cards. He also has a career-best 6.8 rebounds and 18.9 points per game.

Toronto has the third-worst defensive efficiency in the league, allowing 115.4 points per 100 possessions while playing at a top-10 pace. This bodes well for Pascal Siakam, who should find plenty of room to operate in the paint against his former team, and he also is having one of this best seasons, with a 63.9% effective field goal rate. Across his last 10 games, the Cameroonian has averaged 34.4 minutes, 21.4 points, 6.3 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 0.8 combined blocks and steals.

Tyrese Haliburton was frigid to start the season, though over his last seven games, he has converted 44.3% of his field goal attempts, including 34.6% on 7.4 3-pointers per game. In his first six games, he was at 33.7% from the field and only 24.0% from behind the arc on a whopping 8.3 attempts per game. Last year he led the league in assists, and he should again start to push for double-digit dimes most games.

T.J. McConnell will be 33 years old this spring, and while he is still one of the best reserve guards in the league, Indiana typically keeps him with a soft ceiling of 24 minutes. Last year he was above that threshold in only nine of 71 (13%) games, and this season he has more than 22 minutes once, and that was 23.3 yesterday. Do not expect him to be in the starting lineup, but he can still make noise with the second unit at $4,100 on DraftKings and $4,400 on FanDuel. Better value will appear throughout the day, so consider him as a placeholder for now.

Myles Turner is a neutral option with so many appealing centers on this slate. Jakob Poeltl is one of those preferred pivots, with the well-traveled journeyman getting plenty of run for the shorthanded Raptors. RJ Barrett is also on the shortlist of options, coming off a triple-double Saturday that saw Toronto nearly knock off the Celtics in Boston126-123 in overtime.

The 16th overall selection in the 2024 NBA Draft moved into the starting lineup two games ago, and in the five tilts without Maxey, he averaged 32.2 minutes and 18.8 field goal attempts with a 47.9% success rate. This culminated in 26.2 points, 2.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 0.6 steals, and while his salary has ticked up, that makes him a fine differentiation option who will start to fade into the background as news trickles out leading up to lock.

If Embiid is out, then more Philadelphia options will rise up the fantasy point-per-dollar ranks. On the Miami side, Jaime Jaquez Jr. is doubtful with an ankle injury and Jimmy Butler is questionable with an ankle issue that has cost him the last four games. If Butler is out, then Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro remain viable as DFS options, though if he returns, things are a little tougher for the Heat, as salaries have adjusted with his absence.

Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick

Joel Embiid is questionable with an illness but tracking towards playing tonight. Still, the under on his 24.5 points prop is one to attack.

Using Portfolio EV to handle the heavy lifting in finding favorable bets allows us to quickly identify inefficient odds like these. By maintaining accounts at multiple sportsbooks, we can then move swiftly to secure the best odds available.

This approach effectively pits the sportsbooks against each other, revealing that BetMGM has posted +100 odds that are well above those offered by other major operators.

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Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have Embiid projected for 30.9 minutes and 25.58, which is above the 24.5 threshold, but the “True Odds” of -110 and a 52% win rate show that there is a 4.5% expected ROI.

Embiid is a 30-points-a-night producer, but he is working his way back into shape. In his two games this season, he has played 26.5 and 32.7 minutes, shooting 2 of 11 and 5 of 15 for 13 and 20 points. He has yet to miss from the charity stripe, making eight and 10 free throws in the two games. We MUST get the +100 odds, otherwise this is a stayaway wager.

Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today

Catch all the latest news and updates for NBA DFS picks on the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show today at 5:00 p.m. ET on YouTube, where we’ll dive into all the key elements of tonight’s slate.