Tuesday welcomes two fresh series, with the fun getting underway at 7 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka Doncic and Al Horford, along with a variety of secondary players as premium targets.
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NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Tuesday, May 7
NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Thunder vs. Mavericks
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 51.89 | FanDuel: 52.56
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 56.8% | FanDuel: 49.1%
DFS Salary
DraftKings $9,100 | FanDuel: $10,200
Tuesday brings two new series as the final action of the second round gets underway. It will be hard to top last night, when the Nuggets lost in Denver to the Minnesota Timberwolves, who were without Rudy Gobert.
In the first game of the night, Jalen Brunson scored 40-plus points for a fourth consecutive game, joining Michael Jordan, Bernard King and “The Logo” Jerry West.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder should be well rested, having last played on Monday, April 29, when they closed out the Pelicans with a 4-0 sweep in New Orleans. This should be a tightly contested affair, with Oklahoma City being a 3.5-point home favorite. Luka Doncic and the Mavericks have been off since Friday, when they held serve against the Los Angeles Clippers 114-101 in Game 6.
This duo has the top median fantasy point projections across the main DFS sites, though Gilgeous-Alexander has the slightly better fantasy point-per-dollar ratio. Doncic is projected to be the 10th-most popular option on FanDuel (38.1%), sliding to 13th on DraftKings (26.3%), as it looks like most gamers are conservative when it comes to salary cap allocation. In the Stokastic Boom/Bust tool, Gilgeous-Alexander has the highest boom score, while in a rare situation, Doncic has positive leverage against the field, with his popularity coming in at less than his probability of being in the optimal lineup.
Maximilian Kleber (shoulder) is out, and he does not have a projected return date. That has Daniel Gafford as the most popular play on FanDuel, with the expectation that he will be on nearly two-thirds of all large-field tournament rosters. He falls to third on DraftKings, though Dereck Lively II is the sixth-most popular option, with each player expected to make up 50% of the tournament player pool.
The Mavericks duo will, of course, be battling Chet Holmgren in the paint, but both should be nimble enough to continue converting lobs from Doncic and Kyrie Irving. Things will be top-heavy for DFS purposes, with P.J. Washington and Derrick Jones Jr. rounding out the six playable Mavericks.
Oklahoma City has a similarly consolidated rotation, with Jalen Williams, Luguentz Dort and Josh Giddey joining Gilgeous-Alexander and Holmgren as the core options. Holmgren slides down the list on FanDuel, where he is only eligible at center, with Aaron Wiggins ($3,800) being more popular for salary-saving purposes, leading his teammate 12% to 7% in the popularity rankings.
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Al Horford: Celtics vs. Cavaliers
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 27.09 | FanDuel: 27.03
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 48.7% | FanDuel: 63.6%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $5,700 | FanDuel: $5,800
Al Horford will end up as one of the three most popular options on the main NBA DFS sites this evening, as he should have a clear path to 30 minutes of run with Kristaps Porzingis hurt.
Boston last played on Wednesday, and this series has a day off between each game, so there will be time for old man Horford to get a break between tilts.
The Celtics have other options, so expect a soft cap of around 32 minutes, with in-game rest a potential outcome depending on the score. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown will pick up the scoring slack left behind by Porzingis, with reserve Sam Hauser likely moving up a rung in the rotation. The Cavaliers are not going to make things easy, as they have an elite defense and a frontcourt that should be able to give Boston fits.
Jrue Holiday and Derrick White are decent guard options on the main DFS sites, but do not forget about Payton Pritchard as a salary-saving option who will facilitate a different build than what is crafted by those employing the value bigs from Dallas and Boston, or Max Strus on FanDuel and Caris LeVert on DraftKings.
Donovan Mitchell was able to thrive against the tough Magic defense, but he has another tough series ahead against Boston, who will be sending Holiday and Brown at him to give different looks. That could help open things up for Darius Garland or Evan Mobley, but they are facing the same strong defense, albeit with less personalized attention.
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Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Derrick White is one of the few positive-expected-value plays currently on the NBA board, with the under on his 16.5 points prop. This is currently available on FanDuel at -110, though by no means is this a recommendation for the faint of heart.
By using OddsShopper to do the heavy lifting when researching favorable bets, we can quickly spot inefficient lines like this one, and having accounts at multiple sportsbooks allows us to pivot to the best number quickly.
Looking at the true odds of -120 (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager), there is an acceptable 4.0% expected ROI.
NBA Bet Pro has White projected for 35.1 minutes and 15.74 points.
While that is under the milestone, it does not account for variable outcomes, which can be semi-quantified by the 54% win rate for the under. Getting this wager at good number is paramount to sustained success.
In the first series against Miami, White saw his scoring crescendo in the last two games, tallying 20, 13, 16, 38 and 25 points. This is a far different matchup, and while Porzingis is out, vacating a few offensive opportunities that could slide over to White, the Cleveland defense is far more daunting than the depleted Heat squad was in the opening round.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
Get all the latest news and updates for NBA DFS picks today on the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show at 6 p.m. ET on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate. Brought to you by Sleeper – new users, use this link to receive a $500 first deposit match! Full details here.
