Thursday brings a venue change as the Western Conference Finals are back in Minnesota, after the Timberwolves avoided a sweep. Will Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns be able to stave off elimination once more? Tonight’s DFS contests lock at 8:30 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays like Luka Doncic, Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns
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NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Thursday, May 30
NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks
Luka Doncic: Mavericks vs. Timberwolves
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 61.55 | FanDuel: 58.29
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 74.5% | FanDuel: 64.7%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $13,800 | FanDuel: $17,500
Tuesday was a great game, with the Timberwolves avoiding the ignominious outcome of being swept in the Western Conference Finals as the “favorites” getting the first two games of the series at home. The action returns to Minnesota tonight, in a game that is going down in franchise lore, one way or the other.
Kyrie Irving saw his 14 consecutive closeout game winning streak come to an end, but that is no slight on the veteran guard. He and Luka Doncic did everything they could to carry the team yet again. Midway through the fourth quarter it was basically a 50-50% game based on the ESPN win probability and the dynamic duo brough the team back within three points with just over a minute to go after Doncic hit a trio of free throws and Irving got a bucket, cutting the deficit to 103-100. Sadly it was not meant to be, but the Mavericks still have the edge as the series will go back to Dallas on Saturday if they do not upset the Timberwolves at home tonight.
Rookie Dereck Lively II (neck) was missed on defense as the Timberwolves were 39-74 (52.7%) from the field for one of their most effective games in the series. Maximilian Kleber (shoulder) was back, though while he is a key defender, he is better in the paint and on closeouts than actually protecting the rim. Kleber played just 13 minutes after his long layoff, but his return kept veteran pivot man Dwight Powell to a scant three minutes.
Daniel Gafford played 31 minutes and he was fine from a fantasy perspective, but as was pointed out in Tuesday’s article, 30 minutes is probably a ceiling, mostly because he can run into foul trouble. He had only three on Tuesday, but that is no guarantee of a similar allotment of opportunity tonight.
Doncic had his sixth triple-double of the postseason and he is still the priority play, even at the apex level salary. Irving is in the mix as we can hope he is dialed in after his impressive streak came to an end, but finding a third scoring contributor will be paramount for Dallas tonight.
P.J. Washington played 42 minutes, giving him 37-plus in eight of the last night games. The outlier where he did not cross that threshold was Game 6 against Oklahoma City, where he had foul trouble. He was only 2-of-9 (22.2%) from 3-point range, but he still had 13 total field goal attempts and 10 points. No other Maverick reach double-digit shot attempts, which allowed Minnesota to overplay Doncic and Irving.
Derrick Jones Jr. will be the fifth starter, though his role is to be defensive menace to harangue the Minnesota backcourt. More than a half a dozen field goal attempts would be a surprise, so Jones is going to need to contribute some steals or rebounds, in order to be a fantasy difference maker.
Tim Hardaway Jr. did not play for the second game, though the return of Kleber gave coach Jason Kidd another option off the bench. That kept Josh Green to 17 minutes, which was down from his mid-20s effort when Lively was injured, but still above his10-to-12 baseline expectation when Lively is healthy. Jaden Hardy saw a dozen minutes, but he also nailed a trio of triples on his way to 13 points. One lonely rebound was his only other fantasy relevant contribution, but at his salary, he was and still is a viable option.
If Lively returns tonight, he may only see around 20 minutes, depending on how he feels and how Kleber is folded into the mix. There is no need for the Mavericks to rush him back early, though they could be tempted or actually targeting a Game 6 appearance, if necessary.
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Karl-Anthony Towns: Timberwolves at Mavericks
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 38.15 | FanDuel: 36.37
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 41.8% | FanDuel: 36.2%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,200 | FanDuel: $13,000
Fouls were again an issue, with Karl-Anthony Towns logging just 30 minutes prior to fouling out, while Rudy Gobert and Anthony Edwards each had five. Yes, the Timberwolves were victorious, but this is the second-straight game where three starters were on the brink of being disqualified.
Towns was the difference maker on Tuesday, after being sub par through the first three games of the series, averaging 32.9 minutes and converting on only 27.8% of his 18.0 field goal attempts. This resulted in15.0 points, 8.3 rebounds, 2.7 assists and one steal per game. In Game 4, he was able to knock down 9-of-13 (69.2%), including 4-of-5 (80.0%) threes. Perhaps he is now out of his slump and being at home should bring renewed confidence in his game. It will be interesting to see how Dallas adjusts, as well as DFS gamers, who have been burned to a crisp this series when rolling with KAT.
Gobert saw major run in the fourth quarter, after not even seeing three minutes in Game 3. The four-time Defensive Player of the Year notched a 13-10 double-double, with one block in 39 minutes. Jaden McDaniels also played 39 minutes and while he had just eight field goal attempts, he still hit half his shots for 10 points, while also contributing a rebound, a steal and a block. Gobert is a wild card, but McDaniels continues to be a strong floor option, with available upside.
Edwards had a bounce-back with 29 points on 11-of-25 (44.0%) from the field, with 29 points, 10 rebounds and nine assists. The six turnovers and five fouls were not helpful, but it was good to see the budding superstar appear more comfortable on the court.
Kyle Anderson increased his lead over Nickeil Alexander-Walker and the savvy veteran’s 25 minutes were nearly double that of NAW. He had just three field goal attempts, but four rebounds, four assists and three steals had his supporters grinning from ear-to-ear. Alexander-Walker was far from a zero, with six points, two boards, a block and a steal, so this remains a toss-up.
Naz Reid had just 20 minutes, losing out to Gobert and Towns, but we have seen him be a fantasy difference maker several times this postseason. The -10 point differential while he was on the court is not helpful, but if Minnesota needs a spark, you can bet the fan favorite will rise to the challenge.
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Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Kyrie Irving is absolutely in play for the DFS world, but we can hedge out some of that downside by looking to his under 4.5 assists prop. This wager is currently available at -104 on Unibet, SugarHouse and BetRivers. Looking at the -116 “true odds” (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager), we can see there is a steady 5.2% expected ROI with the current line.
By using OddsShopper to do the heavy lifting when researching favorable bets, we can quickly spot inefficient lines like this one, and having accounts at multiple sportsbooks allows us to pivot to the best number quickly.
We can see that the current line on the from these operators stands out when “sharp” book HardRock is down at -130. Be a savvy shopper!
NBA Bet Pro has Irving projected for 40.3 minutes and 4.56 assists, which is just barely above the 4.5 milestone, though it does not account for a variable range of outcomes. That can be measured by the 54% probability for the under on this wager. This extra risk is neutralized by getting a favorable line.
In the four games this series, Irving has four, four, six and four assists. He has been more of a scorer than facilitator when compared to the Oklahoma City series, which is likely to continue tonight. While five assists for a terrific point guard, who is on the court for 40-plus minutes does not seem all that daunting, remember, Luka is the main offensive force and passes to him, do not always lead to “direct basketball moves” and thus an assist as the superstar often likes to survey the situation for himself, or even make a second quick pass. This wager is likely to go down to the wire, but it is still favorable on a long-term time horizon.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
Get all the latest news and updates for NBA DFS picks today on the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show at 8:00 p.m. ET on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate, including even more on Luka Doncic, Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns. Brought to you by Sleeper – new users, use this link to receive a $100 first deposit match! Full details here.
