Tuesday brings Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals, with Dallas poised for a sweep. Will Anthony Edwards and company rise to the occasion? Tonight’s DFS contests lock at 8:30 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays like Luka Doncic, Anthony Edwards and Kyrie Irving
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NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Tuesday, May 28
NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks
Luka Doncic: Mavericks vs. Timberwolves
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 60.23 | FanDuel: 57.48
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 71.9% | FanDuel: 65.5%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $13,800 | FanDuel: $17,500
Luka Doncic continued to impress as he and Kyrie Irving each tallied 33 points as the Mavericks were able to hold off a Timberwolves rally in the third and most of the fourth quarters, pulling away for a 116-107 victory, by controlling the final four minutes of the game.
This duo has been everything Dallas fans could have hoped for and they will need one more big game to cement a trip to the NBA Finals. Even though Doncic had only five assists and Irving four, the team was continually making the extra pass and functioning as a cohesive crew to secure the victory. Rookie Dereck Lively II took a hard fall and sprained his neck. This takes a key player out of the mix and has the Mavericks only favored by a bucket on Tuesday night.
Doncic led the league in scoring and he was named to the All-NBA first team for a fifth consecutive season, so there are few superlatives left for the reigning NBA scoring leader. He is clearly banged up, but gritting through everything and if the team takes care of business tonight, he will have a full week off before the first game of the Finals. Expect another 40-plus minutes and a push for 50 PRA (points + rebounds + assists).
Irving has now posted four consecutive games of 20-plus points including two of 30 or more. He has been very efficient with a 52.5% conversion rate in this series, while also finding success on 43.8% of his 3-pointers. Most games the 32-year-old should have around 10 combined assists and rebounds, giving him an excellent fantasy baseline, with upside potential if he continues to put the biscuit in the basket.
Daniel Gafford will continue to start, though he likely will top out at around 30 minutes. In 29 games with Dallas, after being acquired from Washington, the 25-year-old played more than 27.5 minutes once. He had a dozen games with the Wizards this season where he saw north of 30 minutes, but he can be a foul magnet with his hard-nosed defense and going against the Minnesota frontcourt is no picnic. By no means should we be avoiding him, but just know that foul trouble is very much in play. Dwight Powell was dusted off and the 32-yar-old veteran played eight minutes. In the Oklahoma City series he saw five minutes of blowout run in one game and he had nine total minutes of mop up duty in the first round against the Clippers. He is likely to get 10-to-12 minutes, but it would not be a surprise if coach Jason Kidd eschews having an actual center on the floor for a few minutes, with Luka or P.J. Washington serving that nominal role. This was the approach for a couple minutes in the fourth quarter and while it is not ideal against the Timberwolves, it can be done. Now is when the Mavericks will really miss Maximilian Kleber.
Washington played 40 minutes, which is not as surprise as he has seen 37-plus in seven of the last eight postseason games, with the only exception being Game 6 against the Thunder, when he had early foul trouble. Expect around a dozen field goal attempts, with about as many points as a baseline with half a dozen rebounds. For as good as Lively had been, he still didn’t have a lot of production on plays designed for him, outside of lobs from Luka and Kyrie. That leaves around a half dozen field goal attempts and rebounds to be absorbed, with no obvious landing spot – save for Gafford picking up another 8-to-10 minutes. Washington is still a solid play and the Mavericks need him to space the floor, thought at 6′ 7″ and 230 pounds, he is not much of a banger to go into the paint for rebounds.
Derrick Jones Jr. rounds out the first five, though his role is that of a defensive presence to harass the Minnesota backcourt. He will get a few field goal attempts, but double-digit shots do not appear to be in the cards this series. That was the analysis before Game 3 and we saw Jones nail all three of his long-distance shots, with 11 points, two rebounds and two assists in 33 minutes. Expect something similar tonight from a fantasy perspective, though the mix could always change slightly with a few less points and perhaps a steal or a blocked shot.
Tim Hardaway Jr. did not leave the bench, which enabled Josh Green to see 25 minutes. There is no guarantee that happens again tonight, but it makes it very hard to consider THJ. Green had one field goal attempt, which was a 3-pointer that he converted, otherwise he had two rebounds and two assists. Doncic and Irving command so much of the usage, it is hard for anyone else to consistently be productive from the reserves.
Jaden Hardy will all get minutes, but anything more than 10 to 12 will be hard to come by as most will be when Doncic or Irving is not on the court. He at least has the ability to steal a few extra minutes via good play, particularly if Hardaway is another DNP-CD.
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Anthony Edwards: Timberwolves at Mavericks
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 47.08 | FanDuel: 45.72
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 55.2% | FanDuel: 53.3%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $11,600 | FanDuel: $15,500
Minnesota was up by two points with five minutes to go, but ultimately they were not able to hold off Luka and Kyrie down the stretch. Rudy Gobert, Karl-Anthony Towns and Mike Conley each had five fouls, which helped give a 31-17 edge to Dallas for free throw attempts, with the Mavs sinking 26 (89.3%).
Anthony Edwards did what he could, playing 43 minutes and taking 24 field goal attempts for 26 points, nine rebounds, nine assists and a pair of steals. He missed both his 3-point attempts and was 2-for-7 (28.6%) in Game 2, lending credence to the thought that the heavy minutes this postseason have caught up to the spectacular two-way player.
Towns has not been much help this series, averaging 32.9 minutes and converting on only 27.8% of his 18.0 field goal attempts. This has culminated in 15.0 points, 8.3 rebounds, 2.7 assists and one steal per game. Gobert played only 2.7 minutes in the fourth quarter and 28.6 for the game, after picking up four fouls, with a fifth in the final frame. Still, he is +3 this series and averaging 34.6 minutes with 12.3 points, 7.7 rebounds, 1.7 assists and 2.0 combined blocks and steals. For perspective, Towns is -17 and Edwards is -19. Still it is Gobert catching grief, despite winning his fourth Defensive Player of the Year award
Conley did his best to provide some offensive help for Edwards, but the 36-year-old isn’t as spry as he once was, still the 16 points, including 12 from downtown, were helpful. Jaden McDaniel has been more than paying off his 5-year, $131 million rookie extension and rallied back from his two-point game with 6-of-8 from the field, including 3-of-4 from beyond the arc. While 75% is not a sustainable conversion rate, the former University of Washington Husky is averaging 51.6% for the postseason, including 41.6% from 3-point range. He is a borderline core play as he gets just enough other stats to help offset his reasonable salary, even if he is not scoring.
Kyle Anderson has a slight lead over Nickeil Alexander-Walker, who was the leader throughout the second round. This battle should continue tonight, though it is a true coinflip as to which player is the better option. This would be a duo to avoid having on the same roster, which is a rare statement for the single-game format and yet exactly what was stated in this article before Game 3 and what played out. Alexander-Walker played most of the third quarter, but it was Anderson who had more minutes in the fourth. This duo overlaps on the court, but they are also competing for the same limited number of looks, after Edwards, Towns and Conley get theirs. Anderson had six field goal attempts, making five, while NAW had four, splashing just one. This could easily reverse course in Game 4, but Anderson still feels like the better option.
Finally we have wild card Naz Reid, who led the reserves with 29 minutes and 14 points. His salary went down by $400 on DraftKings, keeping him at the forefront of the value options, who also have a semi-realistic chance for 25-plus fantasy points.
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Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Naz Reid is still worthy of our attention in the DFS world, but we can hedge out some of that downside by looking to his under 1.5 made 3-pointers prop. This wager is currently available at +128 on Unibet, SugarHouse and BetRivers. Looking at the +119 “true odds” (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager), we can see there is a solid 4.3% expected ROI with the current line.
By using OddsShopper to do the heavy lifting when researching favorable bets, we can quickly spot inefficient lines like this one, and having accounts at multiple sportsbooks allows us to pivot to the best number quickly.
We can see that the current line on the from these operators stands out when “sharp” book Pinnacle is down at +104. Be a savvy shopper!
NBA Bet Pro has Reid projected for 24.8 minutes and 1.75 made 3-pointers, which is above the 1.5 milestone, though it does not account for a variable range of outcomes. That can be measured by the 46% probability for the under on this wager. This extra risk is neutralized by getting a “plus” line.
In Games 1 and 2 of this series, Reid suddenly became an effective volume 3-point marksman going 3-of-6 and 7-of-9. Not surprisingly, he was just 1-of-5 in Game 3, which is more in line for what we have seen from him in the playoffs. Through the first two series, he averaged 1.3 made 3-pointers on 4.0 attempts, for a 31.8% success rate. In these 11 games, he had two ore more triples three times, but he also was blanked three times, with one in the other five matchups. This wager is likely to go down to the wire, but getting it at +128 takes a lot of the downside risk out of the picture, when considering a long time horizon.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
Get all the latest news and updates for NBA DFS picks today on the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show at 8:00 p.m. ET on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate, including even more on Luka Doncic, Anthony Edwards and Kyrie Irving. Brought to you by Sleeper – new users, use this link to receive a $100 first deposit match! Full details here.
