Thursday has a slightly later start time that usual, with the fun getting underway at 7:30 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays like Kyrie Irving and plenty of plays from the Bulls, Rockets and Wizards.
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NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Thursday, March 14
NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks
Luka Doncic: Mavericks at Thunder
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 47.26 | FanDuel: n/a
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 40.5 | FanDuel: n/a
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,400 | FanDuel: n/a
DraftKings has elected to go with a six-game featured slate tonight, while FanDuel decided to FanDuel and lop off the final two games of the night, creating a four-game set on the blue site. Luka Doncic has been ruled out with a hamstring injury, which was suffered last night against the Warriors.
Daniel Gafford has made 33 consecutive field goals, with his last miss coming on March 3, when he was 0-for-1 against the Philadelphia 76ers. In this stretch he also has 17 blocks, and while neither of these trends is remotely sustainable, it is certainly worth noting. Gafford is only $4,900 on DraftKings.
PJ Washington also is worthy of our consideration since he should see a secure 30 minutes tonight and be one of the players helping fill the scoring void left by Doncic.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is one of two remaining players with a five-figure salary on DraftKings, so he and Giannis Antetokounmpo represent the top-shelf options. Both players are at home and see their teams as favorites, but they, of course, will be the featured offensive players from their respective squads and are the most likely to crest over the 60-fantasy point mark.
Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Josh Giddey and Luguentz Dort are all solid fantasy point-per-dollar options on DraftKings, and most lineups are likely to have at least one Oklahoma City hooper on them tonight for the DraftKings featured tournaments.
Ayo Dosunmu: Bulls vs. Clippers
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 31.18 | FanDuel: 30.67
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 27.3% | FanDuel: 36.4%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $5,900 | FanDuel: $6,300
Ayo Dosunmu is a strong option on the main DFS sites tonight, and he continues to improve with his additional responsibilities forced upon him by the injury to Zach LaVine.
Most nights he is getting a secure 36 minutes of court time while seeing around 15 field goal attempts and chipping in with a handful of rebounds and assists each game. His path to upside is with his ability to post games with multiple “stocks” (steals plus blocks).
Coby White is likely to be out with a hip issue, so that means DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic will be doing the heavy lifting on offense, with Alex Caruso helping out Dosunmu in the backcourt. Torrey Craig is currently an extreme punt option, though he is likely to fall by the wayside once the dust settles on the remaining injury situations across the teams in action tonight.
Kawhi Leonard and James Harden are dinged up and listed as questionable tonight. If either is out, the other will be a strong DFS option, along with Paul George. Ivica Zubac is the only other player worthy of mentioning until we have further news about Leonard and Harden.
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NBA DFS Picks: Key Games
Houston Rockets vs. Washington Wizards
Amen Thompson has not been kind to his fantasy supporters, logging just 23 minutes despite starting on Tuesday. He ended the game with his sixth sub-20-fantasy point effort in the last eight, which was a major disappointment. Three games ago he made a foray to the 40-fantasy point plateau, racking up 16 points, eight rebounds, three assists and seven stocks against Portland. In early February, he also had a stretch of five starts where he tallied 40-plus fantasy points three times. For one more night it makes sense to say a little prayer and then roster Thompson.
Eight of the 10 most popular plays on both DraftKings and FanDuel are expected to come from this matchup. Jalen Green, Fred VanVleet and Jabari Smith Jr. all profile as strong options from the Rockets, along with Mr. Enigmatic himself, Dillon Brooks. Alperen Sengun is done for the season, and now rookie Cam Whitmore is sidelined as well, which opens up all sorts of minutes for the remaining ambulatory members of the Houston rotation.
The Wizards stumbled against the Grizzlies on Tuesday, with a 109-97 loss in Memphis. Washington at least had been showing signs of DFS life this month, with Kyle Kuzma, Deni Avdija, Jordan Poole and Tyus Jones each having moments of relevance. The loss of Sengun means there is more room to operate in the paint, which should help the rebounding and drive metrics for Washington.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Deandre Ayton looks like someone to target in the sports wagering market. The under for his 11.5 rebounds prop is currently available at odds of -110 on BetRivers and Sugar House while being available at -115 on bet365. Caesars is all the way down at -139.
By using OddsShopper to do the heavy lifting when researching favorable bets, we can easily take advantage of outliers in a situation such as this, since getting the best number can easily bring a 10% difference for this wager. Be a savvy shopper!
Per the true odds of -110 (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager), this opportunity has a stellar 6.1% positive expected ROI as a function of the inefficient line.
NBA Bet Pro currently has Ayton projected for 32.8 minutes and 11.52 rebounds. While this is slightly above the 11.5 threshold, keep in mind a range of outcomes is far different than one specific projection. This is also demonstrated in the 56% projected win probability.
In his last six games, Ayton has 15, 19, 15, 10, 19 and 10 boards. Those are some ridiculous figures, but we want to remember that tonight he will be facing the New York Knicks, who have been a top-five rebounding team over the last three weeks, and they also have O.G. Anunoby back, which means a loaded frontcourt that also includes Isaiah Hartenstein and Precious Achiuwa, who are both strong on the glass. This game has just a 205.0 implied point total and ideally the Knickerbockers will be bringing down Portland’s pace, which would in turn curb total possessions and ultimately rebound chances.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
Check out the Stokastic NBA Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock Shows starting at 5 p.m. ET on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate. Brought to you by PrizePicks – new users, use this link to receive a $100 first deposit match AND – ONE FREE MONTH of OddsShopper Premium! Full details here.
