Sunday is springing a seven-game featured slate with a 6 p.m. ET first tip on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays like Jarrett Allen, Caris LeVert and Darius Garland from the Cavaliers, plus Jimmy Butler, Terry Rozier and Bam Adebayo from Miami and a couple options in the Kings-Rockets matchup.
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NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Sunday, March 10
NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks
Jarrett Allen: Cavaliers vs. Nets
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 45.89 | FanDuel: 45.24
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 19.1% | FanDuel: 17.6%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,400 | FanDuel: $9,000
The chalky plays will be in the next section. However, Jarrett Allen is poised to be a difference maker tonight and worthy of being a centerpiece in tournament lineups. Rostering him from a positionality standpoint will not be an issue since he holds power forward eligibility on FanDuel and we can roll out two-center lineups on DraftKings with the utility slot.
This is a very winnable game for the Cavaliers, who are 6.5-point favorites in Cleveland, though tonight is an “all hands on deck” scenario.
Donovan Mitchell is out with a deep bone bruise in his left knee, Evan Mobley will be out for at least two weeks with a major ankle sprain and Max Strus is slated to miss a fourth consecutive game with a knee issue. Allen is coming off a wicked game where he tallied 33 points, 18 rebounds, three assists, and four combined blocks and steals. Yes, he played 46 minutes in that overtime game, but he has 40-plus fantasy points in his last four outings and he gets a 20% boost to 1.23 fantasy points per minute when Mobley is off the court. Cleveland is half a game up on the Milwaukee Bucks for the second-best record in the Eastern Conference, which would guarantee home court until the finals.
Brooklyn is in an interesting spot as the Nets do not have a first-round pick in the upcoming draft, having moved it as part of the ill-fated James Harden deal. They are 4.5 games out of the Play-In Tournament, though with Atlanta losing Trae Young, there is a slim chance Brooklyn could climb into the final slot. The team has been enigmatic this season, which cost head coach Jacque Vaughn his job, though the team seems to at least be trying under interim coach Kevin Ollie. Anything that keeps this game close would help Allen see heavy minutes in a strong matchup against his former team.
Caris LeVert has played 34 or more minutes in three of the last four games, which means he is likely to spontaneously combust at some point on the court. Until then, expect similar run and do not worry about him coming off the bench; he still will receive major run. Dean Wade is cheap but definitely a trap. In the overtime game on Friday, he played 33 minutes yet attempted just two shots, missing both from behind the arc. Yes, the 40-fantasy point game against Boston was great, but it was a serious outlier for a player averaging 0.7 fantasy points per minute this season.
Isaac Okoro and Georges Niang are the discount dandies to look at instead of Wade, with point guard Darius Garland also a coveted option in tournaments.
Jimmy Butler: Heat vs. Wizards
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 43.23 | FanDuel: 43.31
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 33.7% | FanDuel: 41.9%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,400 | FanDuel: $8,800
The Heat dropped both games on the short road trip, but they are back home on three days’ rest against a pitiful Washington squad.
Tyler Herro and Kevin Love are out for this game, and Josh Richardson is done for the season with a shoulder injury that required surgery. That means Jimmy Butler is going to have to carry the offense, though he will have help from Bam Adebayo and Terry Rozier.
The Wizards finally ended their 16-game skid on Friday, so they should be ready and willing to lose all four games on the upcoming road trip. Washington has been content to lose as they look to stay in the bottom 3 teams for a chance at the best odds in the upcoming lottery draw. Fortunately, the team is at least trying most nights and has taken several leads over good times in the third quarter of games, only to ease up in the final frame and giftwrap victories to opposing teams. This does make for a good scenario for the key Heat trio to see standard minutes, as long as the Wizards do not stumble out of the gate.
Duncan Robinson and Caleb Martin are fine fantasy point-per-dollar options, with rookie Jaime Jaquez Jr. the most likely to see mop-up duty.
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NBA DFS Picks: Key Games
Sacramento Kings
The Kings are looking for their first win against the Houston Rockets this season in a late-afternoon matchup in Sacramento. The last two times these teams squared off was all the way back in early November, when the Rockets won both games in Houston, played in a 72-hour span.
Domantas Sabonis has been sublime this season, building on last year when he led the NBA in rebounds. This season he has leveled up to 13.5 per game, leading the league and a full rebound more than his personal-best 12.3 per outing last season. He also leads the league with 22 triple-doubles, including reaching that milestone in nine of the last 15 games.
De’Aaron Fox has compiled 77 points over the last two games, including a career-best 44 against the Lakers in Los Angeles on Wednesday. Fox had been dealing with a sore knee that cost him two games last week, so the three days off since last taking the court on Thursday were a welcome respite from the NBA grind.
Malik Monk has also been on a tear, posting 40-plus fantasy points in three of the last four games. His salary is at a season high on both DraftKings and FanDuel, so be wary of his very thin profit potential tonight.
Alperen Sengun is yet another center option, though he is at a season-high $9,300 on DraftKings and close to it on FanDuel ($9,100). He has 40-plus fantasy points in seven of his last eight games, including 70 and an 80-point performances. The young Turk will need close to 50 fantasy points tonight just to breakeven, but he has demonstrated some enticing upside over the last week.
Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore are in the mix as discount dandies on DraftKings, with Dillon Brooks earning that distinction on FanDuel. Jalen Green and Fred VanVleet are always in play, though they are scoring dependent for their bigger games. Jabari Smith is a neutral option on the featured-slate since he will be battling the Rebound King for errant caroms, but he is worthy of consideration on the mid-evening sub-slate.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Aaron Nesmith looks like someone to target in the sports wagering market. The under for his 17.5 points, rebounds and assists (PRA) prop is currently available at odds of -120 on DraftKings and SugarHouse.
By using OddsShopper to do the heavy lifting when researching favorable bets, we can easily take advantage of outliers in a situation such as this, with “sharp” book Pinnacle down to -148, which is a rough number. Be a savvy shopper!
Per the true odds of -131 (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager), this opportunity has a reasonable 4.1% positive expected ROI as a function of the inefficient line.
NBA Bet Pro currently has Nesmith projected for 28.7 minutes, 11.14 points, 4.29 rebounds and 1.49 assists for 16.92 PRA. While this is below the 17.5 target, keep in mind a range of outcomes is far different than one specific projection.
Over his last 12 healthy games, Nesmith is averaging and 16.3 PRA, with 18-plus four (33.3%) times and 15 or 16 two others. This is likely to go down to the wire, but the hope is the matchup against the defensively inclined and slower-paced Magic in Orlando are enough to keep Nesmith from topping today’s milestone.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
Check out the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show starting at 5 p.m. ET on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate. Brought to you by PrizePicks – new users, use this link to receive a $100 first deposit match AND – ONE FREE MONTH of OddsShopper Premium! Full details here.
