Tonight is Game 4 of the NBA Finals. The Mavericks are staring down a 0-3 deficit, but they are at home and could have one last hurrah in the tank. Tipoff tonight is at 8:30 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays like Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Luka Doncic.
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NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Friday, June 14
NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks
Luka Doncic: Mavericks vs. Celtics
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 63.83 | FanDuel: 60.48
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 68.4% | FanDuel: 65.1%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $13,800 | FanDuel: $17,500
The last 48 hours, Luka Doncic has been hearing a lot of criticism after fouling out in Game 3 when the Mavericks were only down by 3 points. Making it worse, Dallas had cut down a 21-point deficit in barely seven minutes of game action. Doncic got his fifth foul at the 4:38 mark and his sixth foul less than 30 seconds later.
In addition to fouling out, Doncic also was complaining to officials after no-calls a couple times in the first quarter, not making it back on defense while Boston took care of business for some easy buckets. Can a leopard change his spots? We will find out tonight if Luka will be focused or if he will remain petulant, grousing and picking up ticky-tack fouls resulting from a lack of effort and concentration.
This is not meant to pile on Doncic — the regular talking head pundits have done enough of that — but it is worth noting that there is no guarantee that this will serve as a wake-up call, even though it would for most people. Doncic also has played the most minutes per game of his career this season (37.5), with his 70 regular season appearances the most since he had 72 in his rookie year back in 2018-19. On top of that, he has averaged 41.2 minutes over 20 postseason games while dealing with ankle, leg, back and chest issues. It has been a grind of the season, so seeing the 25-year-old being frustrated is not a complete surprise, but it is one he can mitigate.
Kyrie Irving has been on the straight and narrow this season, and he finally rewarded his DFS supporters with some fantasy goodness, popping off for 35 points, three rebounds and two assists. While Doncic is priced for perfection, Irving also has a lofty salary, which has been painful when he failed to top 30 fantasy points in three of his last five games. On Wednesday, he tallied 42.75 on DraftKings and 39.6 on FanDuel, which is good, but not great — even for the NBA Finals.
Irving has now suffered 13 consecutive losses to his former team, but that could change tonight. Expect him to see another 20 field goal attempts, which has him live to end the night as a top-2 fantasy scorer.
P.J. Washington was the third-leading scorer for Dallas, though he had just 13 points, while rookie Dereck Lively II was fourth, notching 11 points. No other Maverick was in double digits, with the other two starters combining for 8 points and the entire bench adding another 5.
Washington should at least get minutes, and that makes him one of the mid-tier targets. Unless this is a completely lopsided affair, he should see 38 to 40 minutes and is live for a double-double, though unlikely to quite get there for rebounds.
Coach Jason Kidd took the confetti approach, throwing everything up in the air, with Dante Exum getting four minutes, Jaden Hardy logging four, Maximilian Kleber sliding back to eight and dusting off Tim Hardaway Jr. for 19 minutes.
Hardaway missed all five field goal attempts, corralling three errant caroms and locking a plus/minus of NEGATIVE SIXTEEN. Kleber missed both of his shots, grabbing one rebound and generally looking like his shoulder issue would have him sidelined if this were not the Finals.
Exum and Hardy are tricky to trust, but either one could winnow their way into 8 to 10 minutes; a DNP-CD is not out of the realm of results either. Kleber is hard to trust, but even if he plays fewer than his eight minutes of Game 3, it would be a surprise to see Dwight Powell on the court for more than a minute or two, unless there is blowout run.
If it feels like I am forgetting someone, it is intentional. That is because it seemed like coach Kidd forgot about Josh Green, as his do-everything super-sub did not set foot on the court until the middle of the second quarter. Fortunately, Kidd found him and he made up for his oversight by playing Green for the final 18:38 minutes of the game. Though Green only took two shots, he dropped one from behind the arc and was on the court for the entire Dallas comeback. Irving, Washington, Lively and Green played the entire fourth quarter, with Hardaway replacing Doncic when the superstar fouled out.
It was not a surprise to see Gafford lose out to Lively, but for Derrick Jones Jr. to be banished to the bench and see just 15.8 minutes was a shocker. Jones will have a chance to earn minutes, but if his offense falters again, it seems likely that Kidd is going to go back to his confetti approach.
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Jaylen Brown: Celtics at Mavericks
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 41.9 | FanDuel: 41.07
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 36.1% | FanDuel: 37.9%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,800 | FanDuel: $15,000
Jayson Tatum was outstanding with 31 points, six rebounds, five assists and a steal. Jaylen Brown was right there with 30 points, eight rebounds, eight assists and a block.
The dynamic duo is on the cusp of getting that elusive championship ring, and if not tonight, they are all but assured of winning this series — of the 156 teams to previously tip off in the postseason with a 0-3 record, none has been able to claw back to win the series. In the NBA single-game format, particularly mid-series, nobody is “sneaky,” but it does look like Brown is slightly underrepresented in the multiplier slot on DraftKings, where there is a 50% salary tax. It is Doncic projected to be the Captain on 19.5% of all lineups, Irving 17.8%, Tatum 15.4%, Washington 11.1%, then Jrue Holiday 9.8%, with Brown and Derrick White tied at 6.7%.
In this series, Brown is averaging 40.4 minutes with a 55.1% conversion rate on 16.3 field goal attempts. This has culminated in 24.3 points, 6.1 rebound, 5.7 assists, and 3.3 combined blocks and steals. Yet he is the fifth-most popular Captain on DraftKings. Yes, his salary has increased to $10,000, but that is not a huge detractor. FanDuel boosted Brown by $1,000 over his Game 3 salary to $15,000, which gives him the third-highest cap hit. Of course, he is the sixth-most popular player, coming in 25% below Doncic in aggregate popularity and 13.1% behind Tatum.
It would be a shock to see Kristaps Porzingis play, though there is no rush for Boston to rule him out of commission. Al Horford logged 37 minutes, with Xavier Tillman getting 11 as the backup big, while Luke Kornet did not leave the bench. That was a bit of a surprise, but there were hints the minutes could be in flux — though an outright donut for Kornet was pretty aggressive. Considering the team was +9 with Tillman on the court, expect him to get the first crack again at the backup minutes.
Sam Hauser had 14 minutes, making his backers happy with 9 points, three rebounds and an assist, while Payton Pritchard logged 11 minutes and missed all four field goal attempts, leaving him with a pathetic 1-for-11 (7.7%) success rate this series. This duo has the safest bench minutes, and they are still the best discount dandies — but we need to understand double-digit fantasy points outside of mop-up duty is unlikely.
If you need some more tips on how to manage your bankroll, Steve Buzzard has a great guide here on the biggest bankroll mistakes DFS players make and how you can avoid them! Check it out HERE.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
There is not much value in the wagering market with the pre-game lines tonight. The best mathematical play is the under on the 4.5 assists prop for Jaylen Brown. This wager is currently available at -130 on Unibet, BetRivers and SugarHouse. Looking at the -147 “true odds” (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager), we can see there is a decent 5.5 % expected ROI with the current line.
By using OddsShopper to do the heavy lifting when researching favorable bets, we can quickly spot inefficient lines like this one, and having accounts at multiple sportsbooks allows us to pivot to the best number quickly.
Looking more closely, we can see that the rest of the books are split, either offering a heavy lineup for under 4.5 or granting a somewhat positive but still not profitable under on 3.5 assists. Be a savvy shopper!
NBA Bet Pro has Brown projected for 41.6 minutes and 3.49 assists. While this is just below the five assists he needs for the under to lose, he has eight, seven and two in his last three games. The math says that the 58% probability of him falling shy of five assists is likely, but it is not going to feel good clicking on this wager. Keep in mind that the long-term time horizon for the bet is still a strong one; it just may not come to fruition tonight.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
Get all the latest news and updates for NBA DFS picks today on the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show at 8:00 p.m. ET on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate, including even more on Luka Doncic, Jaylen Brown and the availability of Kristaps Porzingis. Brought to you by Sleeper – new users, use this link to receive a $100 first deposit match! Full details here.
