Thursday sees the NBA DFS action tipping off at 7:30 p.m. ET featured slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays like Donte DiVincenzo, Daniel Gafford and other recommended options.
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NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Thursday, April 4
NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks
Daniel Gafford: Mavericks vs. Hawks
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 32.13 | FanDuel: 34.54
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 42.1% | FanDuel: 45.3%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $5,700 | FanDuel: $6,800
Welcome to Daniel Gafford Night! Between the shallow player pool, particularly on FanDuel, and rookie Dereck Lively II out for the next 10 days with a sprained right knee, Gafford is popping a one of the strongest fantasy point per dollar options across the main DFS sites.
The only concern is more of a risk aversion as “Daniel Gafford is headed to the locker room.” seems to happen in games nearly as often as it does with Anthony Davis.
Gafford does not do much with regards to generating his own offense, but he is excellent finishing on the fast break and converting lobs into points. This is something that both Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving have been facilitating with regularity. This is a back-to-back, three-in-four and four games in six days situation for Atlanta. The Hawks have officially clinched at least a Play-In Tournament slot. Currently they are tied with Chicago and it is unlikely they or the Bulls will be able to close the five-game gap to move into the 8th seed. However, the No. 9 team does host the No. 10 team, so it will be interesting to see if the short-handed team gives anyone the night off or if they press forward. Most of the remaining games are against playoff teams, so it will be interesting to see the rest/attack approach.
If everyone is starting as currently expected, in-game rest will be a risk, especially with the team 11.5 underdogs in Dallas tonight. If any regulars sit, there would be additional opportunities available for the remaining ambulatory options.
Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are viable tournament options, since their usage is so dominant when they are on the court, this duo would be the leading force behind Dallas getting out to a significant lead. Stay tuned for updates from NBA injury reports. PJ Washington, Derrick Jones Jr. and Dante Exum are all in the mix as players who could get extensive late game run to close out any lopsided efforts tonight for Dallas.
Donte DiVincenzo: Knicks vs. Kings
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 35.64 | FanDuel: 34.33
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 24.1% | FanDuel: 15.6%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $6,800 | FanDuel: $7,700
Donte DiVincenzo just keeps getting 3-point volume at a ridiculous rate. That is the sort of thing that could turn him into a slate-breaker tonight, particularly on FanDuel which is skipping the final game of the night in Denver.
Over his last six games, DiVincenzo is averaging 14.7 attempts from beyond the arc, with a stellar 40.9% success rate. That is not a precursor to a strong showing tonight, but it is worth noting that he has 49 or more fantasy points three times in this stretch.
Jalen Brunson is always live to pop off for 40 points in any game, which keeps a foray to the 50 fantasy point plateau in play at all times. Miles McBride and Josh Hart are borderline core plays on FanDuel, though they are neutral options on DraftKings, where there are two more teams in the player pool.
Keon Ellis feels like a trap with his elevating salary and inconsistent usage as he knows to let De’Aaron Fox, Keegan Murray and Domantas Sabonis do the heavy lifting on offense. That trio along with Harrison Barnes is in play across the industry for the Sacramento side.
Kawhi Leonard is going to miss a second-straight game, while Jamal Murray is out for a seventh-consecutive tilt. Paul George, James Harden and Russell Westbrook are the most appealing options for Los Angeles, with Norman Powell also worthy of a mention.
Denver is tied with Minnesota atop the Western Conference standings, with Oklahoma City just one game behind. Nikola Jokic is a key play where available, along with Michael Porter Jr. and to a lesser extend, Reggie Jackson, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Christian Braun as discount dandies.
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Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Bam Adebayo is someone to target in the sports wagering market with the under on his 10.5 rebounds prop.
Currently this wager is available at -115 on BetMGM, which is a great value when comparing it against the -130 to -148 on most other books.
By using OddsShopper to do the heavy lifting when researching favorable bets, we can quickly spot inefficient lines like this one, and having accounts at multiple sportsbooks allows us to pivot to the best number quickly.
Per the true odds of -135 (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager), this opportunity has a nice 6.7% positive expected ROI as a function of the inefficient line.
NBA Bet Pro currently has Adebayo projected for 35.4 minutes and 10.99. This projection is right above tonight’s targeted threshold but still does not account for variable outcomes. The 57% win rate gives us a good indication that, on a long time horizon, this is exactly the type of wager we are looking for — but only at -135 odds or better.
This season, Adebayo is averaging a career high 10.6 rebounds per game, but that is also with Miami frequently missing key players. Tonight the Heat should have everyone, except for Tyler Herro, who is not much of an impact to Adebayo. The other thing to keep in mind is that Joel Embiid returned to action on Tuesday, so that is one more fierce rebounder on the floor, in the battle of the boards.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
Check out the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show starting at 6:30 p.m. ET on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate. Brought to you by Sleeper – new users, use this link to receive a $500 first deposit match! Full details here.
