NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks: Jaylen Brown and Anthony Davis (October 22)

The 2024 NBA season tips off at 7:30 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays like Jaylen Brown and Anthony Davis, along with a variety of secondary players as premium targets.

NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Tuesday, Oct. 22

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NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks

Not much has changed since we last saw the Celtics in June; Kristaps Porzingis is recovering from his foot surgery, and there were no major roster changes this offseason. Boston selected Baylor Scheierman out of Creighton with the 30th pick and Anton Watson in the second round after a four-year career at Gonzaga. Neither youngster is expected to see much, if any, action tonight, but that is not going to be the case for Al Horford.

Big Al is in his 18th season, and while he is unlikely to play on back-to-backs, he should continue to see 27 to 29 minutes of action and, of course, be on the court for crunch time. He is one of the better point-per-dollar options on DraftKings and will likely be on around one-third of all rosters in the large-field tournaments.

Tatum and Brown each had effective and efficient seasons last year, seeing a fair amount of action without Porzingis, who played in just 57 games. In 608 minutes last year, the dynamic duo both had close to a 30% usage rate without Porzingis on the floor. They should be on the court for around 35 minutes tonight, which has them as excellent building blocks. Brown has the overall edge since he has shooting guard eligibility on the main NBA DFS sites.

New York has a lot of moving parts, with the Knickerbockers revamping the roster via offseason transactions. Gone are Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo, whom the Knicks traded with Keita Bates-Diop and a first-round pick in a blockbuster deal that netted Karl-Anthony Towns. But wait, there’s more … prior to that deal, New York and Brooklyn made a wild deal with the Knicks sending five first-round picks, four of which were unprotected, a pick swap and a second-rounder for Mikal Bridges, Bates-Diop and a second-round selection. Bojan Bogdanovic, Shake Milton and Mamadi Diakite also went to the Nets, but that trio did not really have much of an impact for DFS purposes.

The frontcourt will be without Precious Achiuwa (hamstring, out for two to four weeks) and Mitchell Robinson (ankle, not expected back until January), allowing Towns, O.G. Anunoby and Josh Hart plenty of rebounding opportunities. Isaiah Hartenstein is now in Oklahoma City, so Jericho Sims is likely to get 10 to 12 minutes of action. That will not be of much value in the DFS world, aside from having Bridges and Anunoby filling in as the “nominal” center when Towns is on the bench.

Jalen Brunson will, of course, be the maestro of the show, but that is a lot of change considering there will be two new starters, plus Anunoby playing just 23 regular season games last year. It will be fun to see how this team gels through the first month of the season.

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For the two-game docket, Davis has the highest median fantasy projection, as well as the biggest salary cap hit. That is keeping his popularity in check, making the nine-time All-Star a fun tournament target. When it comes to his long-distance prospects, it should be noted that he has had a dreadful three-season stretch with the Lakers, averaging just 1.5 3-point attempts at a 24.3% success rate. In his final two years with the Pelicans and in his first with Los Angeles, things were markedly better with 3.0 attempts per game and a 31.5% conversion rate. This new wrinkle, along with averaging multiple blocks and multiple steals, can lead to slate-breaking performances.

Davis has had no issues against Rudy Gobert, recording at least 50 fantasy points in each of the last four meetings. In this time he averaged 35 points, 11.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 3.8 combined blocks and steals in 36.8 minutes per game.

LeBron is embarking on his 22nd NBA campaign, and he will turn 40 in December. The 20-time All-Star is 11 years removed from his fourth NBA MVP, but he finished in the top 5 six times in that stretch. What he is doing now is literally unprecedented, even if Bronny were not his teammate.

Jarred Vanderbilt and Christian Wood are out, which leaves Jaxson Hayes and Rui Hachimura backing up Davis in the pivot. Hachimura is going to be the starting small-forward, though he, LeBron and Davis will be shifting along the various frontcourt duties each possession. Hachimura is just $4,200 on FanDuel, which has him projecting to be on nearly two-thirds of all rosters.

D’Angelo Russell (6.3 assists) and Austin Reaves (5.5 assists) will keep the offense moving, though it was LeBron who led the team with 8.3 assists per game last year. This backcourt duo will assume most of the scoring responsibilities for the guards, but each is well behind Davis and James.

Hayes, Max Christie, Gabe Vincent and Dalton Knecht are each likely to see around 10 minutes of action tonight, though that is only important for the single-game contests.

Anthony Edwards was amazing last year, and he could very well contend for the scoring title this season. The swap from Towns to Randle is not going to help the floor spacing, and having a ball-stopper on the wing or high post is not particularly helpful in keeping the offense flowing.

Naz Reid should benefit from the absence of Towns, with the fan favorite actually being a good floor spacer and a tenacious rebounder. DiVincenzo is likely to come off the bench, but he should still see minutes in the upper-20s most nights as the team can use him to give Edwards a break on defense, plus being a lights-out, volume shooter from beyond the arc is a coveted skillset.

Mike Conley celebrated his 37th birthday earlier this month, and this will be his 18th NBA season. He continues to produce at a steady rate, but he is a neutral fantasy option at best. Rookie Rob Dillingham is expected to work into the rotation, though it will be interesting to see how the eighth overall selection in the 2024 NBA Draft ramps up. He made only one start last year in 32 games at Kentucky but racked up the production with 15.2 points, 2.9 rebounds, 3.9 assists and a steal in 23.3 minutes per game.

Minnesota also brought in Joe Ingles to provide another veteran ball-handler with multi-position versatility. Former University of Washington stalwart Jaden McDaniels had some moments of true offensive brilliance in the playoffs. It will be interesting to see how sticky that is this year with all of the personnel changes and his defense-first mindset.

Gobert is a tough click with Davis and Towns projecting as the better center plays, and who knows what Randle will do on a new team where he is well down the offensive priority list? Nickeil Alexander-Walker should play around 20 minutes, making him a decent punt, while Ingles, Dillingham and Luka Garza are wild cards who could see a dozen minutes or not leave the bench.

Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick

Tonight we can go back to an old favorite and target the under on Jayson Tatum’s 8.5 rebounds prop.

By using Portfolio EV to do the heavy lifting when researching favorable bets, we can quickly spot inefficient lines like this one, and having accounts at multiple sportsbooks allows us to pivot to the best number quickly.

The under on the 8.5 for this wager is currently available at -105 on DraftKings, and with true odds of -116 (how Portfolio EV measures the potential ROI of a given wager), there is a solid 4.7% expected ROI with the current line.

Lines are constantly shifting and moving, so when you find a good number, pounce on it. That is the beauty and power of Portfolio EV to find the best lines at any point in the day.

Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have Tatum projected for 36.0 minutes and 8.77 rebounds. That is just above the current milestone, though still below the nine needed for this under to fail. This can be measured by the 54% expected win rate and also by understanding that there is a variable range of outcomes for the actual game and stats.

Last year Tatum averaged 8.1 rebounds per game, which was down from his 8.8 the prior season. Across his last 288 games, he has averaged 8.1 rebounds per 36 minutes. In an interesting twist, Tatum had a 12.9% rebounding rate in nearly 1,300 minutes with Porzingis on the floor, and that rate slipped to 11.7% when Porzingis was off the court.

Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today

Get all the latest news and updates for NBA DFS picks today on the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show at 5:30 p.m. ET on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate. For a limited time, get NBA Core for just ONE DOLLAR with promo code TIPOFF24! This grants you access to all of Stokastic’s tools and data, including the Sims, through Oct. 29. Act fast — this preview window closes next Tuesday whether you sign up now, tomorrow or this weekend. The clock is ticking!