Friday wraps up the workweek with the NBA fun locking at 7 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays like Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier and plenty of plays from the Magic, Hawks and Jazz.
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NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Friday, March 15
NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks
Bam Adebayo: Heat at Pistons
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 44.23 | FanDuel: 43.84
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 24.1% | FanDuel: 29.7%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,200 | FanDuel: $8,500
Tonight DraftKings is running a six-game featured slate with no late-swap. FanDuel is going with late-swap per the norm but differs from DraftKings, with the exclusion of the fantasy friendly Jazz-Hawks matchup.
The Miami Heat stand out on both sites in a matchup in Detroit against the Pistons, with both teams dealing with injuries to key players.
Tyler Herro has not played in three weeks as he manages a foot injury, and Kevin Love has been out almost as long with a heel issue, plus Josh Richardson is done for the season. Miami is on a four-game skid, and if the team does not snap out of it, it could end up landing squarely in the Play-In Tournament.
Bam Adebayo has been dealing with a sore back, though it sounds like he is on track to play tonight. He continues to be a fine source of fantasy production, and he is also projecting as the most popular center-only player across the DFS sites for the featured tournaments. Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier are the other prominent options, and if Adebayo were to miss tonight’s game, that duo would be elevated to priority-play status.
Duncan Robinson and Caleb Martin are fine fantasy point-per-dollar options, with rookie Jaime Jaquez slotting in as a tournament differentiation play. Nikola Jovic would become the discount du jour if Adebayo were to sit.
Cade Cunningham is dealing with a sore knee, and he could get a night off. Rookie Ausar Thompson is out again with an illness, while trade deadline acquisition Quentin Grimes is unlikely to suit up until next week as he manages his own knee issue.
Jalen Duren laid down a monster performance on Wednesday with 24 points, 23 rebounds and five assists in just 28 minutes against the Toronto Raptors. He is in the mix as a tournament target, with Jaden Ivey and Marcus Sasser joining him. The latter two will get a bump to the next tier if Cunningham is out.
Paolo Banchero: Magic at Raptors
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 42.45 | FanDuel: 40.81
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 8.5% | FanDuel: 43.1%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,900 | FanDuel: $8,400
Paolo Banchero should feast against the shorthanded Raptors, plus with the game being in Toronto, there is a chance the home team could hang around into the second half, which will be key in getting maximum production from the Magic starters.
Banchero is coming off a pair of mediocre outings, but he did have 40-plus in four of the five games prior to becoming mired in the doldrums. This is a matchup that should have the top pick of the 2022 NBA Draft racking up stats across the box score.
Jonathan Isaac seems destined to play just under 20 minutes most games, but he is a strong value on the main DFS sites and this is the perfect environment for him to collect a couple of steals and blocks. Franz Wagner is the final option worthy of a callout, though he is better left for FanDuel tournaments.
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NBA DFS Picks: Key Games
Atlanta Hawks at Utah Jazz
Bogdan Bogdanovic is dealing with an illness, so gamers playing on DraftKings will be scouring the internet for information pending his status since this game tips off two and a half hours after the first wave on this “no late-swap” night. Jalen Johnson (ankle) is listed as questionable, and he may return after missing the last three games. Finally, rookie Taylor Hendricks, who has been out for the last trio of tilts with a sore toe, may return for the Jazz.
Assessing these situations, Hendricks doesn’t really move the needle, as he was averaging in the low-20s for fantasy points in his six starts prior to injury. Bogdanovic being out would increase the opportunities for the remaining wings and backcourt, but Johnson could fill that void if he returns. The easiest way to approach this is to just avoid these players unless they are confirmed to be in the starting lineup.
Trae Young, Onyeka Okongwu and Saddiq Bay are all out, so Dejounte Murray is a phenomenal option in all formats in this tremendous matchup. Clint Capela is also in play as a tournament differentiator, though there are ample center options tonight. Atlanta still has enough healthy players that the likes of Bruno Fernando, Vit Krejci, De’Andre Hunter and Garrison Mathews can fill in the various voids without really consolidating any of the fantasy production.
Lauri Markkanen, Jordan Clarkson and Kris Dunn are all out for the Jazz, which makes Collin Sexton and Keyonte George outstanding options who should each see 30 minutes as a floor as the main backcourt options. John Collins is also in play against his former team, as he will be one of the key offensive contributors.
Talen Horton-Tucker is a wild card who would be better served if Taylor Hendricks remains out. Rookie Brice Sensabaugh replaced his fellow first-year teammate in the starting lineup, so it will be interesting to see who gets the nod if Hendricks is a go. Walker Kessler is best left for the late slate, as his minutes off the bench have bounced around from 17 to 19 to 30 and back to 19 on Tuesday against Boston.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Bruce Brown Jr. looks like someone to target in the sports wagering market. The under for his 21.5 points + rebounds + assists (PRA) prop is currently available at odds of -110 on Hard Rock but -125 on several sites, while “sharp” book Pinnacle is all the way down at -139. FanDuel is at -102 but lowered the threshold to 20.5 PRA.
By using OddsShopper to do the heavy lifting when researching favorable bets, we can easily take advantage of outliers in a situation such as this since getting the best number can easily bring a 6-8% difference for this wager. Be a savvy shopper!
Per the true odds of -110 (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager), this opportunity has a stellar 5.7% positive expected ROI as a function of the inefficient line.
NBA Bet Pro currently has Brown projected for 33.6 minutes, 13.06 points, 6.51 rebounds and 3.03 assists for 22.6 PRA. While this is above the 11.5 threshold, keep in mind a range of outcomes is far different than one specific projection. This is also demonstrated in the 55% projected win probability.
We saw Brown get off to a very slow start in the last game against the Pistons in Detroit before he knocked down a few shots to end up with 17 points, four rebounds and five assists for 26 PRA, which matched his PRA on Sunday. If Gary Trent Jr. returns to action, that is one more player who can take shots away from Brown and potentially replace him in the first five. With that unknown and the tough matchup against Orlando, it makes sense to take the under on Brown, as there are many ways for things to work against him tonight.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
Check out the Stokastic NBA Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock Shows starting at 5 p.m. ET on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate. Brought to you by PrizePicks – new users, use this link to receive a $100 first deposit match AND – ONE FREE MONTH of OddsShopper Premium! Full details here.
