Tuesday’s NBA action gets underway at 7 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays like Alperen Sengun and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander while monitoring the availability of Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving and Jaren Jackson Jr.
NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Tuesday, February 6
NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks
Alperen Sengun: Houston Rockets at Indiana Pacers
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 50.21 | FanDuel: 49.44
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 27.5% | FanDuel: 28.7%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $9,200
Fred VanVleet is likely out through the All-Star Break with an adductor injury, which will open up backcourt minutes and redistribute the 13.5 field goal attempts.
Alperen Sengun already leads the team with 21.6 points per game, but he should see a couple of extra looks per game without VanVleet, which should easily boost his scoring baseline to 25 points with his stellar 54.3% success rate from the field.
For those worried that Sengun may be played off the court, when these teams squared off in Houston the day after Christmas, he logged 37 minutes, 30 points, 16 rebounds, five assists and four steals. While it would be folly to consider that as a baseline target tonight, it goes to show that he does have readily attainable 60-fantasy point upside in this matchup.
Rookie Amen Thompson received a spot start the last time VanVleet was out, and the youngster rolled up a 40-fantasy point performance in Boston. Thompson has averaged right around a fantasy point per minute alongside VanVleet, with a 10% boost to his efficiency when the former Wichita State Shocker is off the court. Journeyman Aaron Holiday should also see an uptick in minutes as the backup point guard, but keep in mind a good game for him is something approaching 20 fantasy points. If he lands with the first five, then he becomes a priority play; otherwise he is just a means to an end with his rock bottom salary.
Finally, Jalen Green is the other candidate to absorb most of VanVleet’s offensive opportunities, which makes the third-year guard an intriguing tournament target with an outside chance for 50 fantasy points if things go his way.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Oklahoma City Thunder at Utah Jazz
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 55.63 | FanDuel: 56.46
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 29.3% | FanDuel: 10.1%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $10,500 | FanDuel: $11,700
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to impress, leading the league with 2.6 steals per game while also averaging 31.1 points, 5.7 rebounds, along with a career-high 6.6 assists and a 54.8% conversion rate from the field.
Clearly he contributes across the box score, and one needs to look no further than his last game, where he notched a second consecutive high-60s-fantasy point effort despite scoring “only” 23 points. In his last three games, he averaged an absurd 5.3 combined blocks and steals. Wow!
Isaiah Joe (chest) remains out, while Jalen Williams (ankle) has missed the last three games and is getting close to a return, though he is still only listed as questionable. That seems to be a thing for the Thunder today, with Carson Wallace (shoulder), Jaylin Williams (Achilles), Lindy Waters III (ankle) and Vasilije Micic (ankle) all on the injury report. The game against the Jazz should be a spirited one, with a lofty 240.5 total and Oklahoma City only favored by a bucket on the road.
Circle back to the Thunder to see if anyone is popping up as a value, depending how things shape up as the dust settles. It is unlikely they will rush Williams back, so if he is in the starting lineup, he is a solid target alongside Gilgeous-Alexander.
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NBA DFS Picks: Key Games
Dallas Mavericks at Brooklyn Nets
This is a back-to-back for both teams, and each has players on the injury report. The main question will be if Luka Doncic (ankle) or Kyrie Irving (conditioning) sits tonight, which in turn would elevate the fantasy prospects for the other. Maximilian Kleber (toe) is another injury management candidate, so this is a wait-and-see scenario. Dereck Lively II is out, so if Kleber sits as well, that could have Richaun Holmes back in our lives, though he is only trustworthy if listed as a starter.
Brooklyn will have Ben Simmons, though Dorian Finney-Smith and Day’Ron Sharpe remain out. Lonnie Walker IV tweaked his hamstring last night and only played five minutes, while Cameron Johnson (back) missed his last rotation. Nicolas Claxton and Mikal Bridges are the primary DFS candidates, with Simmons an interesting wild card. Cam Thomas has a salary that keeps ticking up, though he should hoist something approaching 20 field goal attempts tonight. Spencer Dinwiddie and Irving, of course, have their dueling “Remember Me?!” games, though that should not factor into the decision process.
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Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
While we want to target Claxton in the DFS world, we can hedge out some of the downside risk by looking to his under 28.5 points + rebounds + assists (PRA) prop, which is currently available at odds of -110 on Tipico.
Hard Rock and BetMGM are reasonable at -115, but we can see under 29.5 PRA is all the way down to -125 on DraftKings, and sharp book Pinnacle has an even more punitive -144 line.
It is important to be nimble and have funds on a few different sites to capitalize on these market inefficiencies.
Per the true odds of -115 (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager), this opportunity has a stellar 8% expected ROI as a function of the inefficient line on Tipico, and it is still decent on BetMGM and Hard Rock, where the -115 line has nearly a 5% expected ROI.
NBA Bet Pro currently has Johnson projected for 31.1 minutes, 13.35 points, 11.39 rebounds and 1.95 assists for 26.69 PRA. That median projection is favorable when compared to 28.5 PRA, but keep in mind a range of outcomes is far different than one specific projection.
Blocks and rebounds are the main calling card for the 24-year-old, and while his ridiculous 11 rejections in the last two games are why he is a strong DFS option, that category is not part of the PRA wager. In his last dozen games, Claxton has topped 29 PRA three times, with seven games of 25 or fewer. Tonight is going to be an up-tempo matchup with plenty of errant shots, but this still is a favorable wager at anything better than -117 tonight.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
Check out the Stokastic NBA Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock Shows starting at 5:00 p.m. ET on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate. Brought to you by BetMGM– new users, use this link to receive $158 in Bonus Bets when you bet $5 ahead of Super Bowl 58! Full details here.
