Hey all, it’s Lindy! In this series of articles, I’ll walk you through the essential elements of the main NBA DFS slate every night. Remember, unforeseen events might impact the slate, so consider this information more as guidance than absolute gospel. I’ll spotlight some key decision-making moments for the current slate, aiding you in anticipating changes and fine-tuning your lineups accordingly. Let’s get into today’s NBA DFS lineup advice! For additional NBA DFS lineup suggestions, check out our NBA DFS lineup generator or our industry-leading NBA DFS simulation tools.
NBA DFS Lineup Questions: Key Decisions for Today
NBA DFS Lineup Advice: Late-Night Heat Hammer
Welp, Monday’s off to a fun start as I had written a bunch of words revolving around the potential late-swap edge pertaining to the Miami Heat and the questionable statuses of Tyler Herro and Terry Rozier. I talked about how a potentially low-owned Delon Wright (yeah, he’s with the Heat now!) was going to be my highest-owned player on the slate and I’d just global swap to Alondes Williams if he got the start instead. I talked about how even with Jimmy Butler and Nikola Jovic suspended for this one, the mid-$5,000 salaries of ancillary Heat pieces were going to wane my interest.
But now, in the aftermath of both Herro and Rozier being ruled out? Those words aren’t worth the virtual paper they’re written on. So now I’m hitting refresh on this article, and hopefully something of what I’m about to type at 100 mph can be useful to you or others.
Let’s start with this: There are two true guards on the entire Heat roster that will be active for tonight, and both are the stone-min on DraftKings. New acquisition Wright is the most likely starter at the point since he’s been a rotational player in the NBA for years with the Raptors, Grizzlies, Mavericks, Kings, Pistons, Hawks and, the entire year up until this point, the Wizards. If you’ve played NBA DFS, surely you’ve pie rostered him in bulk on the cheap, most notably in his time backing up Trae Young in Atlanta. Far more known for his defense, he’s been an abysmal shooter this year, with just a 49.6% true shooting and an impressively bad 31.4% mark from mid-range.
But dude: He’s $3,000. Wright was on a dysfunctional Washington team. He now steps into “Heat Culture.” He’s a legitimately good defender. He can’t possibly shoot worse than the start to his season. And the real kicker? Erik Spoelstra actually coached Wright’s brother Darrell in Miami before him, so there’s long-rooted familiarity between the two there. So long story short: I can’t imagine a lineup without him now so long as he starts, and surely the field will recognize this as well when the ownership updates. It is probably the easiest lock play of the season, if I’m being honest.
Now, to rest of the Heat, and I’m just going to rapid fire thoughts of the next four Heat players I’m getting to in my top 150 lineups with ownership I ramped up on the Data Hub page in the Sims tool:
Bam Adebayo ($8,600) — 62% of Top 150 lineups
Adebayo currently has 24% ownership that HAS to come up without anyone else around, so I put I’m at 30% for the time being in the Sims. He’ll play 36 minutes barring blowout, and his 26.5% usage on the year ascends slightly to 27.2% with no Butler/Herro/Rozier on the court this season. Domantas Sabonis is a meh-to-bad defender, the Kings are a slight pace-up spot … Yeah, Adebayo is a sensational play in all formats today.
Duncan Robinson ($5,400) — 38% of Top 150 lineups
I put him in for 25% ownership for the time being, which I believe will look pretty accurate (or I’ll look pretty stupid instead, which is also very live). If not Robinson shooting the ball from the perimeter, who else? No seriously, who, because I’ll roster them instead. Anyways, SG/SF eligibility here always makes him look better.
Jaime Jaquez Jr. ($5,600) — 32% of Top 150 lineups
I put Jaquez in for 34 minutes as a presumptive starter, and that has him coming in at a pretty decent clip. He averages just 0.81 DraftKings points per minute, but when stacking him up next to Robinson, they have comparable salaries and comparable usage on the season (both slightly north of 19%). Jaquez does slightly more in the box score compared to Robinson too, so my guess is this is a product of SF/PF for Jacquez compared to SG/SF for Robinson that has me getting to less of the rookie.
Alondes Williams ($3,000) — 22% of Top 150 lineups
In what I am sure is going to be an unpopular play when simming things out later on in the day, I’m in love with Williams for tournaments. For starters, Wright hasn’t played more than 14 minutes in a game since Jan. 21. Like most NBA players, that surely doesn’t mean he isn’t capable of playing more (I’ll have 100% if he starts so he BETTER play more). But the range of outcomes on minutes is so darn wide for Williams that, at the floor, I have to take shots on a closer-to-even time split than the industry will project.
Lastly, I will say this: The Heat are somehow not drastically undermanned. I currently have 11 Heat players in the rotation, although one is Orlando Robinson and he’s still listed as questionable. But I am very curious to see where ownership lands on the likes of Kevin Love and Caleb Martin, as they’re the other pieces of this rotation I’m not currently getting too much of but am confident they’ll see their normal allotment of minutes.
NBA DFS Lineup Advice: Nuke of the Night
Tune into Live Before Lock on the Stokastic YouTube channel, as there are simply too many unknowns for me with the Heat news to give you a definitive Nuke of the Night at the moment. However, that doesn’t mean I can’t give you my lean in that department: Cam Thomas. Find out all the reasons why tonight!
