We’re back with a small four-game NBA slate on Tuesady that tips off at 7:30 p.m. EST on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks for today’s action, which include Stephen Curry and Spencer Dinwiddie.
One of the keys to a winning NBA DFS lineup is differentiation, so without contrarian picks like the ones below, you’ll struggle to separate from the pack in tournaments. Subscribe today for access to our industry-leading resources, including our lineup generator (available for NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA), our DFS simulation tools (available for NFL, NBA, MLB, PGA and MMA) and our industry-leading projections for every sport.
NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Tuesday, March 26
NBA DFS High-Priced Contrarian Pick
Warriors-Heat: Stephen Curry
Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 11.10%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,600
It’s always fun to be able to roster Stephen Curry at low ownership, and he’s the top contrarian stud on DraftKings at $8,600. Coming into tonight’s action averaging 43.1 fantasy points per game, Curry has been more solid than spectacular in what is now his 15th season in the NBA. As a result of his inconsistent production, Curry has seen his price continue to fall on DraftKings. At $8,700, Curry is over $700 less than his average price tag this season. Despite his falling price tag, the field is sleeping on Curry in a major way, and he’s currently the second-highest graded leverage play in Stokastic’s tools.
Curry is projected to be in just 3.90% of lineups on DraftKings. With an optimal percentage of 11.10%, it’s clear why Curry stands out as one of the best plays on the slate from a leverage perspective. He is undoubtedly an elite tournament piece at only $8,700.
NBA DFS Mid-Priced Contrarian Pick
Lakers-Bucks: Spencer Dinwiddie
Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 19.30%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $4,600
Spencer Dinwiddie is the highest graded leverage play in Stokastic’s tools, and he’s the obvious top contrarian mid-tier play on DraftKings at $4,600. While the Lakers are projected for massive ownership as a whole with LeBron James out tonight, Dinwiddie isn’t getting that same love.
Since arriving in Los Angeles, Dinwiddie has been a solid backend rotation piece. Although Dinwiddie often leaves a lot to be desired, he’s coming off his best game as a Laker, and there’s a lot to like about him again tonight in a primetime matchup with the Bucks.
Dinwiddie is projected to be in just 9.40% of lineups but has a 19.30% optimal percentage. Although these numbers might change as we get more injury news closer to locks, Dinwiddie is clearly someone to target in GPP’s. While he’s probably fairly priced for his median outcome, Dinwiddie has massive upside at $4,600, and he’s not getting nearly the love he should be getting on DraftKings.
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NBA DFS Low-Priced Contrarian Pick
Thunder-Pelicans: Gordon Hayward
Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 8.90%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $3,700
With only four games on tonight’s docket, viable cheap differentiators are few and far between. As such, we’re back to dumpster diving for contrarian value, and newly minted member of the Thunder Gordon Hayward is the catch of the day at $3,700.
While he’s just a fringe rotation piece for a deep Thunder team, Hayward’s $3,700 price tag stands out on a slate without much value. At this point in his career, Hayward is unlikely to put up a score that’s needed to win tournaments. His $3,700 price tag, however, opens up paths to roster construction that otherwise would be closed.
Stokastic’s tools currently have Hayward as the fourth-highest graded leverage play on the slate. Despite projecting for just 14.97 fantasy points, Hayward is projected to be optimal 8.90% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With only 2.80% of lineups projected to roster him, Hayward is an easy way to get contrarian without much opportunity cost.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today
Check out the Stokastic NBA Process Show with Josh Engleman on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate. Brought to you by BetMGM – new users, use this link to receive $150 in Bonus Bets when you bet $5! Full details here.
