Today’s NBA slate is a seven-gamer that tips off at 7:30 p.m. EST on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks for today’s action, which include Victor Wembanyama and Brook Lopez. One of the keys to a winning NBA DFS lineup is differentiation, so without contrarian picks like the ones below, you’ll struggle to separate from the pack in tournaments. Subscribe today for access to our industry-leading resources, including our lineup generator (available for NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA), our DFS simulation tools (available for NFL, NBA, MLB, PGA and MMA) and our industry-leading projections for every sport.
NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Tuesday, March 12
NBA DFS High-Priced Contrarian Pick
Rockets-Spurs: Victor Wembanyama
Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 6.00%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $10,600
Coming into tonight’s action averaging 20.8 points, 10.3 rebounds, 3.4 assists and 4.7 stocks per game, Wembanyama continues to evolve into one of the top commodities in all of fantasy basketball. He is no longer on a minutes restriction, which limited his upside earlier in the season, and Wembanyama’s ceiling is currently right in line with those of Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic and Giannis Antetokounmpo. With DraftKings making the decision to strip him of power forward eligibility, however, he’s falling through the cracks in a big way at a rising $10,600 price tag.
After coming in pretty chalky over the past month, Wembanyama is projected to be in just 3.40% of lineups on DraftKings, compared to a strong 6.40% optimal lineup percentage.
NBA DFS Mid-Priced Contrarian Pick
Bucks-Kings: Brook Lopez
Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 8.70%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $5,550
Brook Lopez is averaging 28.6 DraftKings points per game this season, and although his production is volatile, he has clear upside at a salary that’s almost $500 less than his average salary this season. Due to his inconsistent production, Lopez is never a comfortable roster when he’s getting ownership.
When he’s not getting love, however, taking chances on his volatility is much more palatable due to his sky-high ceiling on any given night. Tonight is one of those nights despite his salary being down at $5,500.
Lopez is projected to be in just 3.20% of lineups but has an 8.70% optimal percentage. While his floor might be lower than other players in his price range due to his inconsistent production, Lopez’s upside is massive at $5,500.
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NBA DFS Low-Priced Contrarian Pick
Wizards-Grizzlies: Wenyen Gabriel
Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 11.70%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $3,600
If it wasn’t clear by now, the center position is loaded on DraftKings tonight, with multiple good options across every price point. While both Wembanyama and Lopez look great in their own right, newly minted Grizzly Wenyen Gabriel is the top contrarian value play on DraftKings. Memphis continues to deal with a litany of injuries, and Gabriel seems to be the next man up in its frontcourt rotation. Gabriel also gets a great spot against the Wizards, and he’s emerged as one of the best tournament plays on the board.
Despite projecting him for only 19.21 fantasy points, Stokastic’s tools currently have Gabriel optimal 11.70% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With only 6.40% of lineups projected to roster Gabriel, he offers a ton of leverage and roster flexibility.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today
Check out the NBA DFS Strategy Show on YouTube, where Stokastic pros break down all of the key elements for today’s slate. Brought to you by BetMGM – new users, use this link to receive $150 in Bonus Bets when you bet $5! Full details here.
