The madness that is the NBA returns with a seven-game slate on Friday. In NBA DFS tournaments, standing out from the competition is key to securing big wins. To gain an edge, it’s essential to mix in a few low-ownership, contrarian picks. With the help of Stokastic’s NBA DFS Sims, NBA DFS projections and NBA boom/bust probability data, let’s dive into the top NBA DFS contrarian strategy and picks for NBA DFS on Friday, Nov. 1.
NBA DFS Contrarian Picks & Ownership Strategy Today
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PG/SG: Donovan Mitchell (CLE) – $8,200
In typical NBA fashion, injuries have already knocked out a bunch of key players only a week into the season. Orlando is dealing with perhaps the worst injury of them all, as budding superstar Paolo Banchero was diagnosed with a torn right oblique on Thursday and will miss at least 4 to 6 weeks. Banchero was averaging 51.8 DraftKings points through Orlando’s first five games, and his absence takes much of the prestige away from a playoff rematch between the Magic and Cavaliers on Friday night. While plenty of players from Orlando are going to look great with Banchero out and no price tags adjusted, Cleveland is getting slept on in a major way, and Donovan Mitchell is leading that charge.
With new head coach Kenny Atkinson hired to fix many of the Cavaliers’ offensive limitations, Cleveland looks like one of the best teams in the league through five games. The Cavaliers are outscoring teams by 18.2 points per game this season, highest in the NBA. With the emergence of Evan Mobley and the resurgence of Darius Garland, Mitchell hasn’t needed to do as much as he normally does offensively, and as a result he’s only averaging 39.1 DraftKings points per game.
Though Mitchell’s median outcome might be lower than it has been in years past, his upside hasn’t changed, and his $8,200 price tag is $500 less than his average salary on DraftKings this season. Despite his cheapened salary, Mitchell still isn’t getting the love he deserves on DraftKings, as he appears in 20% of top-300 simulated lineups according to ROI but only 17.90% of lineups are expected to roster him.
SF/PF: Cameron Johnson (BRK) – $5,500
With value players emerging as a result of injuries and other players resting, the mid-tier is getting a bit overlooked on DraftKings tonight. Three of the top nine projected highest-owned players on DraftKings are $3,900 or under, making the stars-and-scrubs builds all the more common. While this approach has its benefits, it often leads to players getting undeservedly squeezed out, and Cameron Johnson falls into that boat tonight.
Johnson is averaging 28.2 DraftKings points per game, and he’s been a key cog in an improved Brooklyn offense. Matched up with a Bulls team on Friday that is currently playing at the fastest pace in the league, Johnson couldn’t ask to be in a much better spot. As of this writing, Johnson is projected to be in only 5.10% of lineups on DraftKings, yet he shows up in 7.3% of the top 300 lineups.
C: Nicolas Claxton (BRK) – $6,000
Nicolas Claxton missed the entire preseason with a hamstring injury, and the Nets have eased him into action through the first five games. Claxton hasn’t started a game yet, and the 26 minutes he played on Tuesday were the most he’s played all season. He was extremely productive in those 26 minutes, and with him playing a bit more every game, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he will play 30-plus minutes tonight. Considering he’s all the way down to $6,000 on DraftKings, there’s a ton of meat on the bone that the field isn’t recognizing.
Similar to his teammate Johnson, Claxton is getting squeezed out of what will be a common stars-and-scrubs approach to tonight. Though Claxton is riskier than most considering his inconsistent minutes to start the season, his upside is massive in this spot, and this is probably the cheapest he will be all season. In Stokastic Sims, Claxton has 10.3% top-300 exposure but only 8.10% in our NBA DFS ownership projections.
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