One of the amazing tools provided by Stokastic, that will help you find + EV NBA bets, is the NBA projections page. On this page, you can access DFS projections for fantasy points and minutes, as well as the value and points per dollar assigned to each player on both DraftKings and FanDuel. By clicking the “Projected Stats” page, you can go even further, viewing projections for each player’s points, three-pointers made, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, and turnovers.
Another invaluable tool for +EV betting success is Portfolio EV. Powered by our sister site, OddsShopper, Portfolio EV uses a market-based approach and advanced technology to quickly identify numerous +EV bets across various markets. This strategy reduces risk by diversifying bets, while also offering the potential for significant returns through daily compounding profits.
Our Portfolio EV tools tools use sophisticated algorithms to pinpoint +EV bets, helping users to:
- Find Bets Quickly: Easily discover profitable bets across various sports.
- Place Bets with Ease: Make hundreds of bets with just a few clicks, creating a diversified portfolio in minutes.
- Low Stress, High Reward: By focusing on smaller, frequent bets, users avoid the emotional highs and lows of traditional betting while still benefiting from daily returns.
The traditional method of searching through sportsbooks to find wagers with an edge can be extremely time-consuming and strenuous. Portfolio EV does all the work for you, identifying the bets with the strongest edges and showing you where to place them.
I save significant time by reviewing the NBA portfolio, identifying strong plays, and then checking our NBA DFS Projections page to confirm that the projections reflect a substantial edge.
Now, let’s take a look at a couple of bets currently showing strong edges on Portfolio EV, aligned with our projections:
NBA Betting with our DFS Projections and +EV Tools
Here we can see a bet featuring Desmond Bane Under 22.5 Points (-110). The price of -110 can be found at ESPNBet.
The OS (OddsShopper) rating of this particular wager is a 9, which is fairly high. Next to the OS Rating, we can see that the expected value (EV) of this bet is +5.1%.
Furthermore, the Historical ROI (HROI) is +2.0% for this specific bet and the true odds should be -122.
Below those numbers are a list of all the sportsbooks in your respective jurisdiction that are offering that wager. You can simply click whichever book (hopefully ESPNBet since it has the best value) and it will take you to that page and get the play lined up for you in your bet slip.
Clearly, and immediately, it’s easy to tell how enticing this bet looks. However, if you’re someone who seeks further validation, then you could take a look at Desmond Bane’s projections on Stokastic:
You can see that our projections have him forecasted for 20.56 points. Large edges are seldom this late in the season – but anywhere in a range of two points or so is fairly notable.
NBA Betting with our DFS Projections and +EV Tools
Let’s take a look at another example:
Lu Dort Under 11.5 Points (-120) at BetMGM, is the recommended bet. The expected value is +4.6%, the historical ROI on this specific prop is +4.4% and the true odds are -133. You can even see all the sportsbook listed and can notice that several books have moved the number down to 10.5.
Again – if you wanted to seek some more confirmation, then you can head to the NBA Projections Page, and see that our data team has Dort listed for 9.52 points in this game. Another sizable discrepancy in Stokastic’s projections versus the betting market.
Final Thoughts
Understanding and applying EV in DFS and sports betting is crucial for long-term profitability. DFS players can increase their EV by leveraging projections, game theory and contest selection, while sports bettors can gain an edge through odds comparison, implied probability and market analysis. Whether you play DFS, bet on sports or do both, making +EV decisions consistently is the key to sustained success.
Portfolio EV is the perfect place to begin converting your DFS bankroll into sports betting profits (and vice versa) with a FREE 7-DAY TRIAL today!
