Looking for NBA bets? We’ve got you covered. Our picks are backed by Stokastic’s NBA DFS Projections and OddsShopper’s Portfolio EV, ensuring you’re making data-driven wagers.
Stokastic’s Projected Stats page delivers expert predictions on player points, threes, rebounds, and more—an invaluable tool for both DFS and betting analysis.
Meanwhile, Portfolio EV, powered by our sister site OddsShopper, automates the process of finding +EV bets. Using advanced algorithms, it quickly identifies profitable opportunities across markets, helping you maximize returns while managing risk through diversification and daily compounding profits.
You can test it out FOR FREE, with a 7-DAY TRIAL today!
Save tons of time by reviewing the NBA portfolio, spotting strong bets, and cross-checking them with our projections. Now, let’s look at a couple of bets showing strong edges on Portfolio EV, along with our data team’s projections.
NBA Bets Using our DFS Projections and Tools (March 11)
Here we can see a bet featuring Damian Lillard. The bet is for him to go over 6.5 assists tonight against the Indiana Pacers.
As indicated in the upper right-hand corner, the best odds are +110, which are available at BetRivers.
Below, we can see that the expected value (EV) of this bet is +2.3%, and the historical ROI for this specific bet is +8.7%.
Below those numbers are a list of all the sportsbooks in your respective jurisdiction that are offering this wager. You can simply click whichever book (hopefully BetRivers since it has the best value) and it will take you to that page and get the play lined up for you in your bet slip.
From all of that information alone – it’s clear just how appealing this bet is. However, if you’re someone who seeks further validation, then you could take a look at Damian Lillard’s projections on Stokastic:
Our data team projects Lillard to record 7.31 assists tonight, a notable edge over his 6.5 assist prop available at all sportsbooks. Even better, it’s offered at plus money! Portfolio EV flagged the bet, and Stokastic’s projections further reinforced the conviction in the wager.
NBA Bets Using our DFS Projections and Tools (March 11)
Let’s take a look at another example:
Our next bet focuses on Detroit Pistons veteran Tim Hardaway Jr. The Pistons will be hosting the Washington Wizards, a team that is very much ready for the offseason.
The Wizards rank 29th in Points Allowed per 100 Possessions and 21st in Defensive Effective Field Goal Percentage. Given these metrics, it’s already shaping up to be a very favorable matchup for the Pistons. Portfolio EV reinforces this by highlighting a +EV wager on Hardaway’s over.
The bet is Tim Hardaway Jr. Over 9.5 Points. The best odds are -110, which is available at BetMGM. Our tools are labeling this with an EV of +3.3%, and displaying that the true odds should be -118.
Also, the historical ROI for this specific prop bet is +4.4%. You can even see that several other sportsbooks are going as far as moving these odds to -130 or higher.
But, again – if you wanted to seek more affirmation, then you can head to the NBA Projections Page, and see that our data team has Hardaway listed for 11.20 points in this game. Another sizable discrepancy within Stokastic’s projections in comparison to the betting market.
Final Thoughts
Understanding and applying EV in DFS and sports betting is crucial for long-term profitability. DFS players can increase their EV by leveraging projections, game theory and contest selection, while sports bettors can gain an edge through odds comparison, implied probability and market analysis. Whether you play DFS, bet on sports or do both, making +EV decisions consistently is the key to sustained success.
Portfolio EV is the perfect place to begin converting your DFS bankroll into sports betting profits (and vice versa). You can do just that with a FREE 7-DAY TRIAL today!
