Looking for NBA bets? We’ve got you covered. Our picks are backed by Stokastic’s NBA DFS Projections and OddsShopper’s Portfolio EV, ensuring you’re making data-driven wagers.
Stokastic’s Projected Stats page delivers expert predictions on player points, threes, rebounds, and more—an invaluable tool for both DFS and betting analysis. Meanwhile, Portfolio EV, powered by our sister site OddsShopper, automates the process of finding +EV bets. Using advanced algorithms, it quickly identifies profitable opportunities across markets, helping you maximize returns while managing risk through diversification and daily compounding profits.
You can save tons of time by reviewing the NBA portfolio, spotting strong bets, and cross-checking them with our projections. Now, let’s look at a couple of bets showing strong edges on Portfolio EV, along with our data team’s projections.
NBA Bets Using our DFS Projections and +EV Tools (March 6)
Here we can see a bet featuring Zach Collins Under 25.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists. The price of -120 can be found at FanDuel.
The OS (OddsShopper) rating of this particular wager is a 3. Next to the OS Rating, we can see that the expected value (EV) of this bet is +2.8%.
Furthermore, the Historical ROI (HROI) is +6.0% for this specific bet and the true odds should be -128.
Below those numbers are a list of all the sportsbooks in your respective jurisdiction that are offering this wager. You can simply click whichever book (hopefully FanDuel since it has the best value) and it will take you to that page and get the play lined up for you in your bet slip.
Based off of that info provided for you – it’s easy to tell how enticing this bet looks. However, if you’re someone who seeks further validation, then you could take a look at Zach Collins’ projections on Stokastic:
Our data team forecasts predicts Collins to end up with around 12 points, 7 rebounds and 3 assists. That would put him at a total of 22 points, rebounds and assists – signaling a HUGE edge in comparison to the betting market. Using both of these tools helps you recognize this +EV bet in the first place, and then realizing how big of a potential discrepancy there may be based on our projections versus the market.
NBA Bets Using our DFS Projections and +EV Tools (March 6)
Let’s take a look at another example:
Our next bet features Cam Thomas, a shooting guard on the Brooklyn Nets. Tonight, the Nets are hosting the Golden State Warriors.
Now, Golden State has a pretty respectable defense – ranking 8th in points per 100 possessions and 10th in effective field goal percentage allowed. With that information, we already believe it may be a difficult matchup for the Nets – Portfolio EV is reinforcing that notion by signaling a +EV wager on a Brooklyn player’s under.
The bet is Cam Thomas Under 20.5 Points. The best odds are -110, which is available at DraftKings. Our tools are labeling this with an EV of +4.0 and displaying that the true odds should be -120.
Plus, the historical ROI for this specific prop bet is +5.9%. You can even see that several other sportsbooks are going as far as moving this number to 19.5.
But, again – if you wanted to seek more affirmation, then you can head to the NBA Projections Page, and see that our data team has Thomas listed for 18.5 points in this game. Another sizable discrepancy within Stokastic’s projections in comparison to the betting market.
Final Thoughts
Understanding and applying EV in DFS and sports betting is crucial for long-term profitability. DFS players can increase their EV by leveraging projections, game theory and contest selection, while sports bettors can gain an edge through odds comparison, implied probability and market analysis. Whether you play DFS, bet on sports or do both, making +EV decisions consistently is the key to sustained success.
Portfolio EV is the perfect place to begin converting your DFS bankroll into sports betting profits (and vice versa) with a FREE 7-DAY TRIAL today!
