The NASCAR Cup Series heads to the northeast for the USA Today 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Even though Lenox Industrial Tools, the reason we go the extra mile at New Hampshire, has long since left the sport, we’re still running a 301-mile (and lap) race in Loudon each year. Without further ado, let’s dive into our top NASCAR DFS picks for the 2024 USA Today 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, including Brad Keselowski, who is my pick to lift the lobster after Sunday’s action.
Subscribe today for access to our industry-leading resources, including our lineup generator (available for NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA), our DFS simulation tools (available for NFL, NBA, MLB, PGA, MMA and NASCAR) and our industry-leading projections for every sport. Take 50% off with code “FRONTROW”!
NASCAR DFS Picks: Top Drivers for the 2024 USA Today 301 at New Hampshire
Chase Elliott | 2024 USA Today 301 NASCAR DFS Picks | New Hampshire Motor Speedway
Check out Stokastic’s industry-leading NASCAR DFS projections, including our top drivers tool!
Our NASCAR DFS Sims tool loves Chase Elliott ($9,200 at DraftKings) this afternoon. It makes sense — he’ll start on the pole for this race, and we haven’t seen a ton of passing on short tracks all season. That said, with qualifying getting rained out and only a few minutes of practice, we really have no idea which cars are rolling off the hauler with good speed.
Our Sims tool gives Elliott a +3.3% ROI for the GPP-oriented parameters I used, which, if it sounds low, is the third-best such number on the slate, behind a pair of backmarkers with plenty of chances to climb their way up through the field.
Elliott should be a good source of early dominator points, and, with a solid average finish of xx here, both the results and Sims suggest we can trust him to bring the No. 9 Chevrolet home without costing us much negative differential.
Brad Keselowski
The Sims don’t love Brad Keselowski ($9,000) — he sports a -13.9% ROI under the Sims settings I used, but with the betting market inefficiently low on him, my edge here is one that the Sims tool would overlook. He’ll start in ninth but was third-fastest in a very limited practice session.
I wrote at length about Keselowski in my NASCAR Cup Series betting column this week. The driver of the No. 6 Ford has a dominant resume here that includes two Cup and two Xfinity Series wins.
Since Keselowski took over the No. 2 Ford for Penske in 2011, we’ve seen him in 20 Cup races at New Hampshire. Across that sample, which also includes two starts for RFK Racing, Keselowski has those two wins (10%) along with 10 top-5s (50%) and 15 top-10s (75%).
With questionable weather in the area, this race’s results could come down to a bold strategy call, and we know that few teams in the garage are as aggressive as Keselowski’s when it comes to contrarian pit strategies.
He may have the speed to win this race outright, but if he doesn’t, expect Keselowski to find a way to get his No. 6 in the middle of things.
