It is time to continue our MLB DFS Punt Plays series for the DraftKings and FanDuel main slate. Today’s top value plays feature JP Sears, Jo Adell and more.
However, some context first.
A quality MLB DFS punt play is not only cheap to roster but crucially has upside worth pursuing. In baseball, that often translates into an inconsistent batter with power-hitting or stolen base potential. Or it could be a volatile pitcher offering strikeout upside and the ability to pitch deep into ballgames. Whatever the reason, there is enough rationale to believe that punt plays exceed the value of their price tag and recognizing a great punt play is critical to success in MLB DFS.
This article will highlight the top punt plays available on Friday’s nine-game MLB main slate, locking at 7:05 p.m. ET on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
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MLB DFS Punt Plays Today – May 3
J.P. Sears – SP, OAK vs. MIA
MLB DFS DraftKings: $6,100
MLB DFS FanDuel: $7,900
Today’s slate is unusually deep with pitching options, so punting is not required. That said, J.P. Sears is going to be the best route to a pitching discount, and his 20.3% top-2 value projection agrees. Sears is not an incredibly high-upside pitcher, but he is solid. Prior to getting touched up by the Baltimore Orioles, Sears had surrendered just one earned run total over his previous three starts combined. Through six starts in 2024, he has a middling 4.72 xERA, up from a 4.64 xERA in 2023. Furthermore, Sears’ strikeout rate is slumping below his 20.4% career rate, though he has generated 15 strikeouts over his past two appearances, so he seems to be hitting his stride. Playing in the pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum also doesn’t hurt Sears’ outlook.
The Miami Marlins present a fantastic matchup for Sears. They are scoring only 3.6 runs per game for the season. That includes a horrible 63 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers, the second-worst mark in baseball, alongside a .092 ISO.
Jo Adell – OF, LAA vs. CLE
MLB DFS DraftKings: $2,900
MLB DFS FanDuel: $2,700
With the 2024 Jo Adell breakout well underway, I pretty much assumed that we were done seeing his price below $3,000 on DraftKings. Yet here we are, and this is absolutely a value spot to capitalize on. Across 24 games played, Adell is slashing .290/.338/.565 with a 152 wRC+, four home runs and five stolen bases. His underlying numbers are even more impressive, including a .602 xSLG, 15.6% barrel rate, .331 xBA and a 53.3% hard-hit rate. Adell is a bright spot in a largely abysmal Los Angeles Angels lineup.
Tanner Bibee is projected as one of the most popular pitchers on this slate, but he is an underrated spot to attack. The 25-year-old brings a strong 3.45 ERA through six starts this season, but the underlying numbers are much less enthusiastic about his performance. Bibee sports an underwhelming 4.62 xERA, consisting of a weak .341 xwOBA, 10.6% barrel rate and a .461 xSLG.
Tyler Nevin – 3B/OF, OAK vs. MIA
MLB DFS DraftKings: $2,600
MLB DFS FanDuel: $2,600
Tyler Nevin is quietly one of baseball’s hottest hitters right now, and his price tag has hardly budged from the minimum. The 26-year-old is slashing .325/.375/.500 with four home runs and a 156 wRC+. Nevin has been particularly lethal against left-handed pitchers, slugging .704 against southpaws, part of a .500 career mark.
Ryan Weathers embodies an opportunistic matchup for Nevin. The lefty has a 5.27 xERA through six outings this season, in line with his 5.67 career ERA. Weathers has surrendered a .453 xSLG and a 90.5 mph average exit velocity. Right-handed hitters are slugging .500 against Weathers this season, part of a .520 career mark.
For a limited time only, you can use promo code MLBSIMSWEEK to get access to one week of our industry-leading MLB Sims Max, Sims Data or Data packages for 40% off by clicking here!
Editor Note: If you’re looking for the best MLB DFS picks daily, we got you. On the other hand, if you’re looking for something with more of a gambling tilt, our friends over at OddsShopper can get you going by teaching you how to bet on home runs. You can also look at our brand new MLB Weather Forecast page for daily weather reports on today’s games.
