A safe and balanced lineup does not bring the same energy as a gutsy, stars-and-scrubs-type build. This is why we are introducing our MLB DFS Punt Plays series to do just that. So, let’s get on with our DraftKings and FanDuel decisions.
However, some context first.
A quality MLB DFS punt play is not only cheap to roster but crucially has upside worth pursuing. In baseball, that often translates into an inconsistent batter with power-hitting or stolen base potential. Or it could be a volatile pitcher offering strikeout upside and the ability to pitch deep into ballgames. Whatever the reason, there is enough rationale to believe that punt plays exceed the value of their price tag and recognizing a great punt play is critical to success in MLB DFS.
This article will highlight the top punt plays available on Tuesday’s twelve-game MLB main slate, locking at 7:07 p.m. ET on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
MLB DFS Punt Plays Today – April 29
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Tyler Alexander – SP, TB vs. MIL
MLB DFS DraftKings: $6,000
MLB DFS FanDuel: $6,900
There are plenty of pitching options on this 12-game slate, but if you really want to punt, then Tyler Alexander is worth a look. His 4.74 ERA isn’t pretty on the surface, though the underlying numbers are more encouraging. Alexander sports a respectable 3.76 xERA, up from a 3.61 xERA in 2023. His strikeout numbers won’t usually excite. Still, Alexander does a good job at limiting baserunners thanks to a strong .229 xBA, a 6.6% walk rate and a .311 xwOBA. Furthermore, opposing hitters are generating a below-average 88.1 mph average exit velocity against Alexander.
The Milwaukee Brewers offense has been one of the more surprising over the first month of the season, plating almost 5.1 runs per game. However, the Brewers bats have cooled off recently. They are scoring only 3.4 runs per game over their past nine contests. Even more importantly, Milwaukee has been unable to figure out left-handed pitching, generating a horrible 70 wRC+ against southpaws and a gratuitous 28.2% strikeout rate, the second-highest mark in baseball.
Lawrence Butler – OF, OAK vs. PIT
MLB DFS DraftKings: $2,300
MLB DFS FanDuel: $2,300
Even though the results haven’t been there yet, a lot about Lawrence Butler’s profile suggests a breakout is coming and his recent elevation to the leadoff role means that the Oakland Athletics agree. Butler’s underlying numbers are prolific, including a .516 xSLG, 95.1 mph average exit velocity, 54.9% hard-hit rate, 11.8% barrel rate and a .387 xwOBA. This has only resulted in a .660 OPS, two home runs and two stolen bases this season, but at some point soon, Butler’s luck should start to turn.
Mitch Keller will inevitably attract some interest today since he is squaring off with the Athletics, though he has not been a reliable pitcher. Through six appearances, he has an underwhelming 4.90 xERA, up from a 4.18 xERA in 2023. A key contributor to Keller’s struggles is the inability to limit hard contact. Opposing hitters have generated a 48.1% hard-hit rate, 90.3 mph average exit velocity and a .459 xSLG. Left-handed hitters are slugging .481 against Keller, part of a .451 career mark.
Edmundo Sosa – 2B/3B, PHI vs. LAA
MLB DFS DraftKings: $2,800
MLB DFS FanDuel: $2,500
Edmundo Sosa seemingly only gets to play against southpaws, though the results have been fantastic when he’s out there. The 28-year-old has a .313/.389/.563 slash line with a 167 wRC+. The underlying numbers have been further impressive, including a .502 xSLG, 25% barrel rate and a .365 xwOBA. There is some whiff baked into Sosa’s approach, but he will fortunately take on a pitcher today with very limited swing-and-miss stuff. Sosa additionally offers excellent speed and a stolen base ability. There are numerous different ways he can pay off this cheap price tag.
A day of reckoning is coming for Tyler Anderson. The 34-year-old has an outstanding 1.78 ERA through five starts this season, but almost everything under the surface betrays his results. Anderson carries a 4.52 xERA and 5.05 xFIP, down from a 4.96 xERA and 5.52 xFIP in 2023. Opposing hitters are squaring him up, generating a .455 xSLG and an 11.5% barrel rate. Pair those batted-ball metrics with a problematic 10.7% walk rate and there is no way Anderson can maintain these strong results.
Editor Note: If you’re looking for the best MLB DFS picks daily, we got you. On the other hand, if you’re looking for something with more of a gambling tilt, our friends over at OddsShopper can get you going by teaching you how to bet on home runs.
